Really like 4 sides and 4 totals tomorrow, sorry I don't know how to use bold and colors and jazz up my selections but they are what they are. Now rarely do I bet a side and total in the same game but I do not think the Giants will be able to score much at all on the Atlanta defense, and the Atlanta offense has not been able to score well in the Red Zone so I could not resist that one.
When making my selections I like to look on home a team does on the road vs. at home. Winning on the road in the NFL, especially in certain places, against good defenses is very tough to do. So I use how a team does in points scores and points allowed, there have been enough games played at this point in the season to do this. Some people would call it a system but it's just what I use.
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NYG @ ATL
NYG avg 30 points scored on road
NYG avg 33 points allowed on road
ATL avg 23 points scored at home
ATL avg 6.5 points allowed at home
That gives me a 19.5 difference when you compare how many points Giants score to how many they give up (-3) to how many Falcons score and how many they give up (+16.5) - it is kind of like a turnover margin that the league uses.
In my opinion you should really hammer the Falcons, especially if you only like to bet 1 or 2 games on Sunday. A cliffnote is the Falcons have only allowed one TD at home this year.
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CAR @ BAL
CAR avg 19.5 points scored on road
CAR avg 20 points alllowed on road
BAL avg 22 points scored at home
BAL avg 9.5 points allowed at home
Take the (-.5) for the Panthers and the (+12.5) for the Ravens and you would get 13 - now obviously you have to take into consideration all sorts of other things but you get the idea. A cliffnote is Carolina is worst in the NFL in converting third downs.
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SEA @ STL
SEA avg 7.5 points scored on road
SEA avg 21.5 points allowed on road
STL avg 29.5 points scored at home
STL avg 22 points allowed at home
Using (-14) for the Seahags and (+7.5) with would give me a differencial of 21.5 A cliffnote is Seattle has not scored a TD in it's last two road games.
This last game is a tough one and I really should not have bet it at all but what are you going to do, I always take 4 sides at 1:00pm and since I never bet on my home team (Tampa Bay), don't want to flip a coin for the side on the Lions game, and hate betting huge DD spreads I am left with the Eagles at Saints.
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PHI vs. NO
PHI avg 31 points scored on road
PHI avg 17 points allowed on road
NO avg 23.5 points scored at home
NO avg 12 points allowed at home
The Eagles checks in at (+14) and and Aints are (+11.5) which would give the chunky soup clan a 2.5 advantage. This game could really come down to a FG either way, I have seen so many people split on this game, and valid arguments for both sides. However with Stallworth out and the Eagles coming off of the much hyped "T.O. returns to Philly" game I just don't see them getting up for this one. On the other hand I think this game means to the Saints what last week meant to the Eagles. Although I believe Donovan McNabb is one of the better quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL I feel that Drew Brees is the most underrated QB in the league right now, and his leadership along with the home crowd at the Superdome with lead the Saints to a victory. Here is my cliffnote for this one....now I don't want to get all crazy and talk nonesense but I really believe that the Saints have the absolute best HFA in the league right now and that they could go undefeated at home this year. A lot of people suffered in that building for days on end, a lot of souls were broken down, some taken, and some made stronger for the future. In the end I think that building symbolizes a lot more than just a football stadium to the people of New Orleans and it will show for many games to come.
_____________________________________
Now lastly I just want to point out that I used to bet $500 - $1000 per game and do 6-8 team parlays all the time but then I got in the hole almost $20,000 so now my local has put me on a $300 max game limit and 4 team parlay limit. Going into this week I had my debt down to $8000 and by betting mostly just four games a day and parlaying those same four I have been able to win $8,500 so far this week. I never understood why or how someone would straight bet when parlays par so much but now I know because although they might now get the huge hit in one night they won't ever have to go through what I have been going through night after night for the past 2 months, being deep in the hole and sweating it out. So anyways enough of my personal life, all plays are for my max wager of $300 to win on spreads and wagered on ML's and parlays.
NO +3.5
NO ML +150
STL +3.5
STL ML +150
BAL -2.5
BAL ML -170
ATL -2.5
ATL ML -160
4 Team Parlay:
ATL -2.5, BAL -2.5, NO ML, STL ML *3 to win *44
4 Team Parlay:
ATL ML, BAL ML, NO +3.5, STL +3.5 3* to win *18
Totals:
The range between 40 and 43 is huge and even though a lot of NFL games land on 37 this is the area I find most totals checking in at thes days. I have tried to pick two good unders and two good overs within that range, they are below:
ATL U41.5
CIN O43.5
DET O40.5
DAL U43.5
4 Team Parlay of the above totals *3 to win *27
I am risking about $900 in parlay money to get back about $9000 but the straight bets should cover me if I don't hit any of the parlays, at least that is the idea, I can't tell you how many times one team has screwed me on those parlays, normally I would have $2,000-$3,000 in just parlays pending trying to hit one for $20,000 on one shot. Well it's just not that easy, and it took me a long time to figure that out, and hopefully if you are doing what I used to do maybe after reading this you won't anymore. So anyways if you are still reading this that is my story and I am sticking to it, have a good day and I wish you all the best luck in the world, and try to have some fun watching the games instead of just sweating them out!
When making my selections I like to look on home a team does on the road vs. at home. Winning on the road in the NFL, especially in certain places, against good defenses is very tough to do. So I use how a team does in points scores and points allowed, there have been enough games played at this point in the season to do this. Some people would call it a system but it's just what I use.
--------------------------------------------------------
NYG @ ATL
NYG avg 30 points scored on road
NYG avg 33 points allowed on road
ATL avg 23 points scored at home
ATL avg 6.5 points allowed at home
That gives me a 19.5 difference when you compare how many points Giants score to how many they give up (-3) to how many Falcons score and how many they give up (+16.5) - it is kind of like a turnover margin that the league uses.
In my opinion you should really hammer the Falcons, especially if you only like to bet 1 or 2 games on Sunday. A cliffnote is the Falcons have only allowed one TD at home this year.
-------------------------------------------------------
CAR @ BAL
CAR avg 19.5 points scored on road
CAR avg 20 points alllowed on road
BAL avg 22 points scored at home
BAL avg 9.5 points allowed at home
Take the (-.5) for the Panthers and the (+12.5) for the Ravens and you would get 13 - now obviously you have to take into consideration all sorts of other things but you get the idea. A cliffnote is Carolina is worst in the NFL in converting third downs.
-----------------------------------------------------
SEA @ STL
SEA avg 7.5 points scored on road
SEA avg 21.5 points allowed on road
STL avg 29.5 points scored at home
STL avg 22 points allowed at home
Using (-14) for the Seahags and (+7.5) with would give me a differencial of 21.5 A cliffnote is Seattle has not scored a TD in it's last two road games.
This last game is a tough one and I really should not have bet it at all but what are you going to do, I always take 4 sides at 1:00pm and since I never bet on my home team (Tampa Bay), don't want to flip a coin for the side on the Lions game, and hate betting huge DD spreads I am left with the Eagles at Saints.
------------------------------------------------------
PHI vs. NO
PHI avg 31 points scored on road
PHI avg 17 points allowed on road
NO avg 23.5 points scored at home
NO avg 12 points allowed at home
The Eagles checks in at (+14) and and Aints are (+11.5) which would give the chunky soup clan a 2.5 advantage. This game could really come down to a FG either way, I have seen so many people split on this game, and valid arguments for both sides. However with Stallworth out and the Eagles coming off of the much hyped "T.O. returns to Philly" game I just don't see them getting up for this one. On the other hand I think this game means to the Saints what last week meant to the Eagles. Although I believe Donovan McNabb is one of the better quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL I feel that Drew Brees is the most underrated QB in the league right now, and his leadership along with the home crowd at the Superdome with lead the Saints to a victory. Here is my cliffnote for this one....now I don't want to get all crazy and talk nonesense but I really believe that the Saints have the absolute best HFA in the league right now and that they could go undefeated at home this year. A lot of people suffered in that building for days on end, a lot of souls were broken down, some taken, and some made stronger for the future. In the end I think that building symbolizes a lot more than just a football stadium to the people of New Orleans and it will show for many games to come.
_____________________________________
Now lastly I just want to point out that I used to bet $500 - $1000 per game and do 6-8 team parlays all the time but then I got in the hole almost $20,000 so now my local has put me on a $300 max game limit and 4 team parlay limit. Going into this week I had my debt down to $8000 and by betting mostly just four games a day and parlaying those same four I have been able to win $8,500 so far this week. I never understood why or how someone would straight bet when parlays par so much but now I know because although they might now get the huge hit in one night they won't ever have to go through what I have been going through night after night for the past 2 months, being deep in the hole and sweating it out. So anyways enough of my personal life, all plays are for my max wager of $300 to win on spreads and wagered on ML's and parlays.
NO +3.5
NO ML +150
STL +3.5
STL ML +150
BAL -2.5
BAL ML -170
ATL -2.5
ATL ML -160
4 Team Parlay:
ATL -2.5, BAL -2.5, NO ML, STL ML *3 to win *44
4 Team Parlay:
ATL ML, BAL ML, NO +3.5, STL +3.5 3* to win *18
Totals:
The range between 40 and 43 is huge and even though a lot of NFL games land on 37 this is the area I find most totals checking in at thes days. I have tried to pick two good unders and two good overs within that range, they are below:
ATL U41.5
CIN O43.5
DET O40.5
DAL U43.5
4 Team Parlay of the above totals *3 to win *27
I am risking about $900 in parlay money to get back about $9000 but the straight bets should cover me if I don't hit any of the parlays, at least that is the idea, I can't tell you how many times one team has screwed me on those parlays, normally I would have $2,000-$3,000 in just parlays pending trying to hit one for $20,000 on one shot. Well it's just not that easy, and it took me a long time to figure that out, and hopefully if you are doing what I used to do maybe after reading this you won't anymore. So anyways if you are still reading this that is my story and I am sticking to it, have a good day and I wish you all the best luck in the world, and try to have some fun watching the games instead of just sweating them out!
