nfl plays for 10/11-10/12....

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AR182

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12-16....having a terrible time of it this year in the pros....am making 1 large play for tomorrow & wanted to post it now in case i am unable to tomorrow....

seattle....ml....

jax. is coming off 2 big division games as dogs & now has to make 1 of the longest flights possible in the nfl....2440 miles....

jax is coming off a very impressive win last week where they badly beat tenn....while seattle lost big last week to indy....however, seattle is home for this game where they are much more comfortable playing....so far this year in the 2 home games seattle has played they outgained both the rams & chicago combined by 396-282 yards....

seattle fill-in qb, wallace is not as bad as people think....he threw for over 500 yards the last 2 weeks....while on the other hand jax is not as good as they have showed over the last 2 weeks & except for one 60 yard run, they are averaging 3ypc over the last 2 weeks....


trends supporting this play....

since 2006, teams off b2b divisional wins (jax) & now on the road are 3-9 ats within 3 points or pick-em....

since 1992, seattle is 13-3 against the money line in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game....the average score was seattle 27.8, opponent 19.6....

del rio is 1-7 against the money line off a home win against a division rival as the coach of jax....the average score was jax 13.0, opponent20.0....


systems supporting this play....

play against - road underdogs vs. the money line (jax) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, in the first half of the season.....

over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....10-0....100%....


play against - road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (jax) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season.....

over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....19-2....90%....


play against - road underdogs vs. the money line (jax) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog.....

over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....44-5....89.8%....


i think seattle has one of the strongest home field advantages in the nfl....& should win this game pretty comfortably....


good luck....
 
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AR182

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thanks guys....

hit my large play yesterday & will follow it up with a normal 2* play on the mnf game....

under 37(120) jets / miami....

this game features 2 inexperienced qb's against 2 very good defenses....in addition jets will be without their top wide receiver tonight & am not sure how much 'drop" edwards will play....so i see this game going against the mnf norm & being a field position low scoring game....

here are scout's inc.'s 10 things to watch for in tonight's game....

1. Can the Jets force Miami QB Chad Henne to win the game? The Dolphins are at the bottom of the league in pass offense and the Jets have one of the most opportunistic secondaries in the NFL. Corners Darrelle Revis and Lito Sheppard can handle the Dolphins' wide receivers one-on-one, leaving everyone else to crowd the box and stop Miami's run game. The Jets simply do not give up big passing plays on defense.

2. Jets QB Mark Sanchez should attack the deep middle: The Dolphins' safeties, Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, are better in run support than coverage and they love to attack the line of scrimmage in run situations. Sanchez has an excellent pass-catching tight end in Dustin Keller, who does a good job running the seam route. If Bell and Wilson bite on play-action fakes, it will create a promising hole in the deep middle of the field for Keller.

3. Can Rex Ryan's defense stop Miami's Wildcat? Yes. Ryan understands the Wildcat formation and he defended it very well when he was in Baltimore. His attack mentality fills every gap and it will make it very tough for Miami to create run lanes. Ryan does a great job of bringing inside pressure and he will attack Ronnie Brown on the direct snap.

4. The Jets must find Miami OLB Cameron Wake: The former CFL star is a perfect fit in the Dolphins' 3-4 defense and had a big game in Week 4 against Buffalo. He has excellent first-step quickness and a nice counter move. He is primarily a pass-rusher in nickel and dime packages and moves all over the field to get good matchups.

5. Don't make Sanchez do too much: Sanchez regressed versus the Saints' defense in Week 4, and his decision-making and ball security are getting a little sloppy. The Jets have a potentially lethal run game behind a big offensive line, but it is not yet clicking on all cylinders. If Thomas Jones and Leon Washington play well, it will take some pressure off Sanchez and open up excellent play-action opportunities.

6. Miami need to keep running the ball: Playing with a young QB (Henne), the Dolphins have resorted to a run-first mentality. That keeps their defense fresh and minimizes the potential for Henne making mistakes. Brown and Ricky Williams will get a heavy workload in this game.

7. The Dolphins' offense must continue to convert on third down: Miami is the best in the league on third down (33-for-61), mainly because it excels at running the ball on first and second down, creating many third-and-short situations. The Dolphins' ability to convert on third down in this game will keep the clock moving and keep a more explosive Jets offense off the field.

8. The Dolphins must protect the edges on offense: The Dolphins' run-blocking seems to get better each week, but their pass protection is still suspect -- especially on the edge. Blitzes are not picked up consistently and a mediocre Buffalo pass rush recorded six sacks. Ryan will likely bring allout pressure with some overload blitzes off the edge, where there are more rushers than blockers. If Miami's offensive tackles don't pick it up, this could be a tough night for Henne.

9. Let Henne make some plays: Even though Miami ran the ball 45 times versus Buffalo, the Dolphins let Henne make some throws on run downs and he had the freedom to air it out a little bit. He has a big arm and he can develop into a quality deep passer who can really force a defense to play honest. This will continue to be a run-first offense, but Henne will likely take more deep shots than you might think.

10. Miami center Jake Grove vs. Jets NT Kris Jenkins: Jenkins is the most dominating inside player in the game right now, and it is unlikely Grove can handle him without help. Jenkins has power and rare explosiveness and can collapse the pocket versus the pass. He can also stack versus the inside run and make it nearly impossible to run up the middle. Grove plays hard and is a good anchor guy, but he cannot hold up alone versus Jenkins' bull rush.

Prediction:

New York 13
Miami 17


some trends....

under is 12-3 in dolphins last 15 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game....

under is 24-8 in dolphins last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record....

under is 5-0 in jets last 5 games as a road favorite....

under is 6-0 in dolphins last 6 games following a su win of more than 14 points.....

under is 6-0 in dolphins last 6 games following a ats win....


a system....

play under - home teams against the total (miami) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record....

since 1983 the record for this system is....28-7....80%....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....2-0....

as i mentioned before, there is a major trend that shows that mnf goes over the total a majority of the time & is 4-1 over this year....but looking at the matchup with both teams having young qbs, good running attacks, & very good defenses, i am having a hard time seeing how this game goes over....but i have been wrong before....lol....


good luck....
 
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AR182

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Senor Capper said:
:00x30

thought you may be on the Fins :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

hey lanny....i would bet on the jets if i took a side becaue i am having trouble seeing miami scoring in this game....& after the turnovers last week by sanchez, i see the jets playing very conservatively tonight....this is the type of game that parcells love....a very physical game....
 
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autt_4

autt_4

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Good call on Seattle I had the Jags. Thought the Hawks were soft but I guess not. The jags have screwed me all year. GL
 
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AR182

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thanks autt....yesterday everything was in place for a seattle blow-out....but that was just 1 game....on to the next one....right ?

good luck....
 
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tulah

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Great call with the Seahags.....A very good team when Hassleback is healthy......I Tailed u on that one.....:mj06:

Love the Un37.....On it as well.....Glad to see u on it too...
GL tonight :mj06:
 
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AR182

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tulah said:
Great call with the Seahags.....A very good team when Hassleback is healthy......I Tailed u on that one.....:mj06:

Love the Un37.....On it as well.....Glad to see u on it too...
GL tonight :mj06:
Click to expand...

thanks tulah....appreciate it....
 
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