nfl plays week #1...

[AR182]

finished up the preseason with a 7-4 record.


jax.-6 (120)...

last year both teams finished up the season at 8-8, but jax. was clearly the better team.last year tenn. was outstated in many of their games, including the ones that they won.

for example....

last year tenn. upset jax. at home 24-17 getting 3.5 points. in that game the jax. offense outgained the tenn. offense...396 yards to 98 yards.tenn.only got 5 first downs.they scored on 2td returns & a fumble recovery return.in that game jax. had the ball for 44:22 minutes, while tenn. had it for 15:38 minutes. i read that in the past 18 seasons, there have been 10 non-ot games games in which 1 team held the ball for at least 44 minutes. in every game but last year's jax/tenn. game, the team that dominated the clock won by double digits.

i think jax. will be out for revenge.

also since 1999, jax.is 8-0 ats in their season opener, covering the spread by 10 ppg.

last year jax. led the league in points allowed at home...the average was 11 ppg against teams such as dallas, indy, & the pats.

the jax. offense is having some problems at the wide receiver position. it won't matter because tenn. did very little to improve their #30th ranked run defense (144 yards per game) from last year....& with jax. having 2 quality runners will run the ball all day on the tenn defense.

a trend supporting this play...

play on - favorites (jax) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ats losses.

ats record is.....28-6 since 1983.....82.4%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....2-0.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....5-0.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is....11-1).

good luck.

 

[eeeerock]

Will be riding along with your plays,so good luck,like the info.

 

[cooz3]

like it...good luck this year

cooz

 

[DeadPrez]

like jax a lot...gl AR

 

[MrChristo]

Nice one ar...

Good luck for the season ahead, buddy. :toast:

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

BOL AR, looking 2 another great season from ya !! :mj06: :toast:


vicc

 

[Agent 0659]

Good luck AR!!!

Some pretty strong trends there!:com:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding...

o 36 (120) denver/buff...

i very seldom play overs because it seems like i lose them all. but i read some info on this game that caught my attention...

denver has a new defensive scheme with a new def. coordinator & they could have 7 new starters on the def., including an entirely new def. line. they have been slow to adjust to the new defense during the preseason & during the 6 qtrs. that the starters had played during the preseason, they gave up a total of 44 points.

buffalo's defense lost some key leaders from their defense during the off-season to free agency....lb's spikes & fletcher-baker, & cb clements.

denver qb cutler has started 5 games in his nfl career & all 5 games went over the total. they never scored less than 20 points or allowed less than 20 points whenever he has started.

good luck.

 

[Dizzayton]

A lot of questionmarks for this Buffalo Defense. This has been the first time in years that Bills go into the season having more faith in the offense than defense. Bills will be competitive this year but will likely struggle to go 8-8.

 

[AR182]

adding....

u41 tb/seattle....

a few reasons for this play...

it has been said that the best way to attack the tb defense is to run straight ahead between the tackles.imo that will eat up the clock.

garcia is still adjusting to his new team & i think it will take time...i see a conservative game plan for tb in this game.....

tb has gone under in 9 of their last 11 season openers...

seattle has gone under in 5 of their last 7 season openers....

tampa bay is 25-4 ( 86%) under in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

good luck.

 

[JT]

Love that Jax play. One team that was better than their W/L record going against one that wasn't nearly as good as their record. Add to that Tenn is missing their best player for a year. I see a 27-7 type result. Best of luck this year AR...

 

[tendog]

hi ar, thanks for all your efforts. i follow your ncaa but am unfamiliar with how well you do in the pros. do you do as well as college? thanks

 

[kozski61]

Good Luck this Year.

 

[AR182]

hi ar, thanks for all your efforts. i follow your ncaa but am unfamiliar with how well you do in the pros. do you do as well as college? thanks

tendog...

last year in the nfl i hit about 54-55%.

however, i honestly i don't think i'm somebody a person should blindly follow. i'm not consistent enough.there are better cappers in this forum.

good luck.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Thanks for your work & input last season. Jax is on my "long" list already. Bufff/Den over looks interesting, the number is not that big.

 

[AR182]

thanks for the nice words guys...appreciate it.


adding....

u 43(120) car/rams....

although the rams still have a very good offense,they are no longer the greatest show on turf. they now have a very good runner & they like to pound the ball, while still spreading the ball around.last year they were ranked # 6 in total offense..while carolina was ranked # 7 in total defense.carolina is learning a new offense & they didn't look too comfortable running it during the preseason.

here are some trends....

car 1-10 under in regular season openers for the last 11straight years since 1996.

rams are 1-5 under in regular season openers for the last 6 years.

good luck.

 

[TiltBoy20]

aR

aR

Hi ar first off i wanna say thanks for your college fb picks last week went 3-1 on ur under picks.I wanted to know if you think jags spread will come down i have the line currently at 6 and a half do you think i should take it now or wait and see if it goes down.same q about jets game i like the jets there getting 6 and a half do you think this spread will go higher ?i would think so i think every one has hyped up pats this year should be alot of action on them anyway like to know opinion and ty once again.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Good luck this year!

 

[AR182]

Hi ar first off i wanna say thanks for your college fb picks last week went 3-1 on ur under picks.I wanted to know if you think jags spread will come down i have the line currently at 6 and a half do you think i should take it now or wait and see if it goes down.same q about jets game i like the jets there getting 6 and a half do you think this spread will go higher ?i would think so i think every one has hyped up pats this year should be alot of action on them anyway like to know opinion and ty once again.

tiltboy...

i don't think the jax line will drop...i am starting to see 7 at a few places.

i have no opinion the ne/jets game at the moment.

hh...

thanks very much...& please don't beat my boytoo severely...his ego is very fragile as it is & if a woman badly beats him....i'm a afraid what may happen....good luck in the contest.

 

[AR182]

adding....

pitts-4 (120)...

last year cleve.ranked #31 in total offense & # 30 in total defense...& i don't see that much has changed....& they still are unsettled at qb & on the offensive line. if pitt.can take edwards & winslow away from the offense,who on cleve. will be able to beat the steelers.

i sense a new enthusiam with pitt...ben is healthy, a new coach who has worked hard to improve their defense & special teams play during the offseason....& a very well conditioned team.

pitt. is also 6-0-1 ats in their last 7 meetings.


good luck.