UPDATED RECORD:
Updated 2008 Record:
33W-22L-1P +$27,900= 60% winners
Hi everyone,
Looking to keep another nice season rolling today...leaving in just a bit here for the Packer/Colts game - I have season tix and make nearly every Packer game - although i do enjoy watching all the games at home nearly as much these days...really sick of coming home from Lambeau disappointed
Which brings me to my play of the day - take the Indianapolis Colts...you might say - how the heck can you be a Packer fan, go to the games, and bet AGAINST the Packers? Well I bet w/ my head, not my heart. If you recall last week I had a nice play ON Green Bay...this week I'm fading them...here is why
This Packers team is still trying to find it's way. The biggest thing still is the lack of running game. 33 carries for 90 yards for Grant vs. Seattle last wek - I was very disappointed with that. Matchup was beautiful for GB last week - Seattle didn't have much to work with on the field. So look at the 3 wins so far - Vikings, Lions, Seattle. Let's look at the 3 losses - Dallas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta. Anytime this team has faced a stiff test, they've failed.
So in come the mighty Colts - I believe Manning is recovered from his early season surgery - and has really found some rhythm in the passing game last few weeks. Now let's start w/ injury to Addai - doesn't matter - plug in any RB - Colts weren't running well w/ Addai. Rhodes is scrappy and might actually help the running game. GB has been terrible against the run. Likewise Colts been terrible against the run - but will GB get the line working together and do we see a breakout game from Grant? Packer fans have been saying each week "this is the week" - and each week comes and goes. I thought they'd run better against Seattle - i don't consider 33 for 90 yds successful.
I can't pinpoint what it is but whenver the Colts fall behind, they usually still end up with the win. I think Manning picks GB apart today. Now GB should have some success moving ball as well - but here is the big x-factor to me. Mike McCarthy. He is so damn conservative and play calling has been very questionable all season. I don't trust GB w/ a lead. They get up by 7 or 10, they will sit on it you watch. I feel more confident in Manning getting up on the Pack. The Pack doesn't seem to have it yet when needing to come from behind. When you let Atlanta come in and control the game start to finish, you have issues. GB could have blown both the Vikings and Lions games as well - at 3-3 not a bad season, but this game I think we find they go 3-4 into the break, and are looking at a 8-8 type of season.
I see some big plays in the Indy passing game. Roddy White seemed to get open all day long last game at Lambeau - Matt Ryan looked like a Pro Bowler. I can only imagine what Manning will do to this banged up defense.
Look - i could be wrong - this is just one play. I'm betting w/ my extreme knowledge of Packer football. I do spend equal time analyzing and researching every NFL team - but of course Packer football I live right near and of course know and understand the coaching philosiphies, personnel, etc. GB will have a tough time keeping up w/ Indy on the scoreboard today. Of course the big x-factor will ultimately be turnovers. If for some reason Indy turns the ball over more, well then they might have trouble. But it's near impossible to handicap turnovers.
Anyways - I locked in on the Colts -1. Given the choice between a GB home team, and an Indy road team - I pick Indy. I think today is a true turning point in both GB and Indy's seasons. GB will be alive until the end, because the North division winner might be a 8-8, 9-7 type of team. Indy is much better than than the record inidcates. I truely believe their early season struggles were a result of Manning getting back into fooball shape - and he's clicking right now. Harrison has been more involved, Wayne always involved. Clark at TE and Gonzalez as 3rd WR could also factor in the game today. If the Colts get the no huddle going, I don't think GB can slow it down.
I see value in the Colts -1 today, I like them to win by at least 7 - and I'm making them my one and only play of the day.
I will be sitting back and taking it all in at the game today - i won't openly root against GB at the game - but on the inside I'll be hoping the Colts win this game. When you choose to bet on sports to make a profit, this is something you must do. I know people who have said "that's wrong" - betting against your home team or favorite team. Well everyone is entitled to his/her opinion. Ultimately I throw out favrorite team loyalties out the window if i see an angle. The object is to beat the spread, and today Indy covers against Green Bay.
Good luck if you play it...
THE PLAY:
Indianapolis Colts -1
Risking $5,500 to win $5,000
GL as always...
-SAVE IT
Updated 2008 Record:
33W-22L-1P +$27,900= 60% winners
Hi everyone,
Looking to keep another nice season rolling today...leaving in just a bit here for the Packer/Colts game - I have season tix and make nearly every Packer game - although i do enjoy watching all the games at home nearly as much these days...really sick of coming home from Lambeau disappointed
Which brings me to my play of the day - take the Indianapolis Colts...you might say - how the heck can you be a Packer fan, go to the games, and bet AGAINST the Packers? Well I bet w/ my head, not my heart. If you recall last week I had a nice play ON Green Bay...this week I'm fading them...here is why
This Packers team is still trying to find it's way. The biggest thing still is the lack of running game. 33 carries for 90 yards for Grant vs. Seattle last wek - I was very disappointed with that. Matchup was beautiful for GB last week - Seattle didn't have much to work with on the field. So look at the 3 wins so far - Vikings, Lions, Seattle. Let's look at the 3 losses - Dallas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta. Anytime this team has faced a stiff test, they've failed.
So in come the mighty Colts - I believe Manning is recovered from his early season surgery - and has really found some rhythm in the passing game last few weeks. Now let's start w/ injury to Addai - doesn't matter - plug in any RB - Colts weren't running well w/ Addai. Rhodes is scrappy and might actually help the running game. GB has been terrible against the run. Likewise Colts been terrible against the run - but will GB get the line working together and do we see a breakout game from Grant? Packer fans have been saying each week "this is the week" - and each week comes and goes. I thought they'd run better against Seattle - i don't consider 33 for 90 yds successful.
I can't pinpoint what it is but whenver the Colts fall behind, they usually still end up with the win. I think Manning picks GB apart today. Now GB should have some success moving ball as well - but here is the big x-factor to me. Mike McCarthy. He is so damn conservative and play calling has been very questionable all season. I don't trust GB w/ a lead. They get up by 7 or 10, they will sit on it you watch. I feel more confident in Manning getting up on the Pack. The Pack doesn't seem to have it yet when needing to come from behind. When you let Atlanta come in and control the game start to finish, you have issues. GB could have blown both the Vikings and Lions games as well - at 3-3 not a bad season, but this game I think we find they go 3-4 into the break, and are looking at a 8-8 type of season.
I see some big plays in the Indy passing game. Roddy White seemed to get open all day long last game at Lambeau - Matt Ryan looked like a Pro Bowler. I can only imagine what Manning will do to this banged up defense.
Look - i could be wrong - this is just one play. I'm betting w/ my extreme knowledge of Packer football. I do spend equal time analyzing and researching every NFL team - but of course Packer football I live right near and of course know and understand the coaching philosiphies, personnel, etc. GB will have a tough time keeping up w/ Indy on the scoreboard today. Of course the big x-factor will ultimately be turnovers. If for some reason Indy turns the ball over more, well then they might have trouble. But it's near impossible to handicap turnovers.
Anyways - I locked in on the Colts -1. Given the choice between a GB home team, and an Indy road team - I pick Indy. I think today is a true turning point in both GB and Indy's seasons. GB will be alive until the end, because the North division winner might be a 8-8, 9-7 type of team. Indy is much better than than the record inidcates. I truely believe their early season struggles were a result of Manning getting back into fooball shape - and he's clicking right now. Harrison has been more involved, Wayne always involved. Clark at TE and Gonzalez as 3rd WR could also factor in the game today. If the Colts get the no huddle going, I don't think GB can slow it down.
I see value in the Colts -1 today, I like them to win by at least 7 - and I'm making them my one and only play of the day.
I will be sitting back and taking it all in at the game today - i won't openly root against GB at the game - but on the inside I'll be hoping the Colts win this game. When you choose to bet on sports to make a profit, this is something you must do. I know people who have said "that's wrong" - betting against your home team or favorite team. Well everyone is entitled to his/her opinion. Ultimately I throw out favrorite team loyalties out the window if i see an angle. The object is to beat the spread, and today Indy covers against Green Bay.
Good luck if you play it...
THE PLAY:
Indianapolis Colts -1
Risking $5,500 to win $5,000
GL as always...
-SAVE IT
