NFL Week 15 Best Bet and Leans

FirstnGoal

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Oct 15, 2004
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2011 NFL Plays Record:
10-5-1

Best Bets:
9-2-1

Teasers:
9-3

Straight Plays:
1-2-1

Breakdown:

Medium Size Plays:
2-1

Small 1 Unit Plays:
8-3-1

Very Small 1/2 Unit Plays:
0-1

Leans:
7-5-1

+5.5 Units

I'm coming off another proifitable week but think this is a tricky card...I love the Saints as one part of my teaser and considered the Jets +8.5, the Titans -pick, the Cards -pick, the Seahawks +10.5 and the Patriots -1/2 as the other part of the teaser but passed on all of them for various reasons.

Best Bet
Very Small 1/2 Unit Play

2 game 7 point teaser:
New Orleans Saints -pk
over Vikings
&
Dallas Cowboys -1/2 over Bucs

Saints -pk...The Saints have won 5 straight games and 6 out of the last 7 and face a Vikings team that could get RB Peterson back into the lineup but has lost 5 straight and 7 out of their last 8 overall...The mismatch in this game is the Saints high-powered offense and passing game going against a Vikings defense with a poor secondary that doesn't match up well in this game...The Saints defense has also given up a ton of yardage but they face a Vikings team with way less offensive weapons and one that turned the ball over 6 times last week against a Lions defense playing without Illstompagain Suh...The Saints need to keep winning for a potential first week bye and won't take the peddle off the metal in this one...The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following both a SU and ATS win...The Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
New Orleans 34 Minnesota 17


Cowboys -1/2...The Boys have now lost two straight because they've blown leads in the fourth quarter, but face a Bucs team that has lost 7 straight games and got blown out by the hapless Jaguars 41-14 last week as it appears that head coach Raheem Morris may have lost the lockeroom...The Bucs offensive line is struggling to protect their banged up QB Josh Freeman and the offense turned the ball over 7 times in their loss to the Jags last week...plus the Bucs defense is banged up and is giving up an average of 388 yards per game to opponents...On the flip side the Cowboys defense has struggled holding a lead of late but their offense should have a field day in this one...The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Bucs and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game...Despite practically packing it in for the season I expect the Bucs to give a good effort on Saturday night but make no mistake the Cowboys know that they can't let this game slip away with a re-match with the Eagles facing them next week.
Dallas 34 Tampa Bay 23

Leans will be posted later.
 
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FirstnGoal

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Oct 15, 2004
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Leans:

Buffalo Bills -1
over Fins...Miami beat the Bills handily just a few weeks ago but the untimely firing of Tony Sparano after suffering just their first loss in five weeks has to have the players scratching their heads since the team was playing hard for him... plus the fact that the Fins said that the Bills quit in their last game was billboard material in the Bills lockeroom this week...The Dolphins are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Buffalo.

Detroit Lions -Pk over Raiders...The Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

NY Jets +1.5 over Eagles...The Eagles are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
 
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FirstnGoal

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,803
2
0
2011 NFL Plays Record:
10-5-1

Best Bets:
9-2-1

Teasers:
9-3

Straight Plays:
1-2-1

Breakdown:

Medium Size Plays:
2-1

Small 1 Unit Plays:
8-3-1

Very Small 1/2 Unit Plays:
0-1

Leans:
7-5-1

+5.5 Units

I'm coming off another proifitable week but think this is a tricky card...I love the Saints as one part of my teaser and considered the Jets +8.5, the Titans -pick, the Cards -pick, the Seahawks +10.5 and the Patriots -1/2 as the other part of the teaser but passed on all of them for various reasons.

Best Bet
Very Small 1/2 Unit Play

2 game 7 point teaser:
New Orleans Saints -pk
over Vikings
&
Dallas Cowboys -1/2 over Bucs

Saints -pk...The Saints have won 5 straight games and 6 out of the last 7 and face a Vikings team that could get RB Peterson back into the lineup but has lost 5 straight and 7 out of their last 8 overall...The mismatch in this game is the Saints high-powered offense and passing game going against a Vikings defense with a poor secondary that doesn't match up well in this game...The Saints defense has also given up a ton of yardage but they face a Vikings team with way less offensive weapons and one that turned the ball over 6 times last week against a Lions defense playing without Illstompagain Suh...The Saints need to keep winning for a potential first week bye and won't take the peddle off the metal in this one...The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following both a SU and ATS win...The Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
New Orleans 34 Minnesota 17


Cowboys -1/2...The Boys have now lost two straight because they've blown leads in the fourth quarter, but face a Bucs team that has lost 7 straight games and got blown out by the hapless Jaguars 41-14 last week as it appears that head coach Raheem Morris may have lost the lockeroom...The Bucs offensive line is struggling to protect their banged up QB Josh Freeman and the offense turned the ball over 7 times in their loss to the Jags last week...plus the Bucs defense is banged up and is giving up an average of 388 yards per game to opponents...On the flip side the Cowboys defense has struggled holding a lead of late but their offense should have a field day in this one...The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Bucs and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game...Despite practically packing it in for the season I expect the Bucs to give a good effort on Saturday night but make no mistake the Cowboys know that they can't let this game slip away with a re-match with the Eagles facing them next week.
Dallas 34 Tampa Bay 23

Leans will be posted later.

Cowboys EZ last night!...Just need the Saints to win today!
 

FirstnGoal

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Oct 15, 2004
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GL today FnG. I have those 2 teams nestled in a 7pointer of my own :0074 Let's get that one home. Also played the Lions and still on the fence with the Jets/Eagles contest :toast:

Another EZ $$$ Teaser win!

:0002

:toast:
 

FirstnGoal

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,803
2
0
2011 NFL Plays Record:
11-5-1

Best Bets:
10-2-1

Teasers:
10-3

Straight Plays:
1-2-1

Breakdown:

Medium Size Plays:
2-1

Small 1 Unit Plays:
8-3-1

Very Small 1/2 Unit Plays:
1-1

Leans:
8-7-1

+6.0 Units
 

FirstnGoal

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Forum Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,803
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do you ever add a small parlay with your teaser pick, seems a bunch would win

I do...it depends on the line, sometimes I like a team to win but possible not cover which makes them a moneyline parlay play for me...it depends on the spread...for example taking a favorite where the line is double digits wouldn't make sence because of the extreme odds like -550 etc that you would have to lay in the parlay.
 

baby johnson

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Sep 12, 2001
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dicken's cider, wisconsin
I do...it depends on the line, sometimes I like a team to win but possible not cover which makes them a moneyline parlay play for me...it depends on the spread...for example taking a favorite where the line is double digits wouldn't make sence because of the extreme odds like -550 etc that you would have to lay in the parlay.

i didn't mean ML parlay, just a two team parlay

thanks
 
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