NFL Week 17: Saturday Plays

[buffettgambler]

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Play: Under 43.5
Comment:
Pros:

Now that the Broncos have the number two seed and a first round bye secured, expect an non inspirational performance out of their offense that will consists of mostly back ups. There offense, an offense heavily predicated on utilizing the run to set up the pass, will be without their workhorse Anderson. The Broncos however do have two adequate replacements for Anderson that will help them stay committed to the running game. Expect them to utilize a vanilla game plan that is heavily predicated on the run game- an obvious variable that favors an under. This game plan is not the ideal game plan going up against a Chargers defense that is one of the best in stopping the run. Expect the Broncos quality line to prevent the Broncos from abandoning the run early, but they won?t be effective enough to take over the game as they have against other teams. An anemic running game does not bode well for the Broncos pass offense, as they heavily rely on the play action and bootleg to be effective. This will allow the Chargers to be more leveraged in the passing game, which will help them better defend the third level passing plays that have plagued them all year. The Broncos main goal on Saturday is not to win the game; rather it is to stay healthy. Therefore, expect the Broncos to only allow their starters, including Plummer, to play only a small portion of the game. This will obviously hamper their passing game. Expect both Plummer and Van Pelt to use a simplified passing plays that will try to control the clock rather than try to score quickly. They lack the arm strength and big play receivers to attack the only weakness in the Chargers defense- the third level passing game. This will force them to have to chip away yards against one of the hardest defenses to do so against, a variable that will also eat up clock. The bottom line is not to expect the same intensity and efficiency out of the Broncos offense. They will use a simpler game plan and back ups most of the game, as they or more concerned with preventing injuries rather than scoring points. Add that they lack the ability to attack the Chargers only weakness on defense leads me to believe the Broncos offense won?t help much in covering this high total.

Now that the Chargers playoffs hopes have died, one has to wonder the intensity their offense will put forth as well. They too are an offense that heavily relies on the run to set up the pass. However, it is clear that Tomlinson has been playing hurt this last month, and has not been much of a threat. He hasn?t hit the 100 yard barrier in over a month, and one has to wonder how much playing time he will put in now that the Chargers have nothing but pride to play for. Even if he plays a lot, he doesn?t match up well with the Broncos defense. His lack of size forces him to rely on B gap runs and outside runs to get the majority of his yards. However, the Broncos have the most athletic outside linebacking tandem and football, a variable that has made them one of the hardest teams to run to the outside against. This variable coupled with the Chargers line getting progressively worse as the season progresses, and the Chargers running game seems to be not much of a force one would initially assume. The Broncos will be without their two starting corners. This will make the Broncos to play off the line and play zone coverage. This will allow them to keep the plays in front of them, and force Brees to have to chip away yards and take what is given to him. Brees also hasn?t been playing as well as he has earlier in the season. This might be an ideal time to see what Rivers is made of, and potentially try to increase his trade value in the off season. Gates is the best weapon the Chargers have in the passing game. However, the Broncos have athletic linebackers and an experienced safety that could do a good job in limiting his effectiveness. The bottom line is to not expect the same intensity and methodical play out of the Chargers offense. Their run game will more than likely not be able to set up the pass as well as it has in the past, while their passing game might see a new quarterback at the helm for the majority of the game. Simply put, the total appears too high for these two offenses to cover.

Cons:
It?s hard to say how hard the Chargers defense will try. They have just gotten finished playing two of the most dangerous offenses in football. Burnout is a strong possibility, especially now that they have nothing to play for. The Broncos more than likely will be playing with a lot of their subs on defense. Not only are they without their two starting corners, they will also be without their middle linebackers and defensive leader Wilson. They also more than likely won?t be showcasing some of their more complex defensive schemes, as they don?t want their playoff opponent to get more film than they already have. The Chargers passing game rarely goes deep, and likes to take what is given to them. Therefore, the Broncos zone coverage scheme will be falling right into the Chargers game plan. In a game that consists of two teams with nothing to play for, anything could happen. Therefore under betting automatically assumes more risk than any other bet in a game with importance to at least one team.

Conclusion:
It appears that line makers have set the total as if both offenses will put forth their regular game plan and allow their starters to play the entire game. However, the Broncos will put forth a vanilla offensive game plan that be utilized by mostly back ups, while the Chargers offense will have nothing to play for, and has their best offensive player playing hurt. Both teams like to run, however face two solid run defenses. In my opinion, the total is set too high to not consider the under. I will take my chances here.

 

[buffettgambler]

New York Giants @ Oakland Raiders
Play: Over 40.5
Comment:
Pros:

The Giants explosive offense will be approaching this game as if it were a playoff game, as a loss could secure them a couch seat next week instead of a playoff spot. This is also the offenses last chance to prove they could play on the road, as they will more than likely be forced to play at least a couple of road games in the playoffs if they want to go to the Super Bowl. On the other hand, the Raiders defense has nothing to play for. Although they have been playing hard the last few games, watching their hard fought battles go to waste as their offense clearly lacks desire to show up, makes one have to wonder how hard they will play tomorrow. Even if they show up, they are easily outmatched by this Giants offense. Is there a running back that has been playing better than Barber recently? He appears to be playing his best football in his career, and he is now up against a Raiders front seven that struggles against his style of running. The Raiders have struggled for the most part against the run. However, they have held their own against a north/south running style, as their bulky front seven is hard to run right at. With that said, the Raiders lack of athleticism and tackling skills, which has made them vulnerable against defending cutback runners that are hard to tackle. There might not be a better cutback runner than Barbers, and his open field elusiveness will pose problems for Raiders defenders when trying to tackle him. This will more than likely force the Raiders to stack the box, creating opportunities for Manning and his receivers downfield against inexperienced cornerbacks. The Giants passing game also matches up well against the Raiders pass defense. The Giants passing game has been plagued by the erratic play of Manning, which has often lead to costly interceptions. The Raiders rank last in football in interceptions, and their tendency to play off their man has prevented them from jumping routes. The Raiders have also consistently bit on play actions, leading to a lot of big plays for their opponents. This does not bode will for them, as the Giants probability of running effectively will set up the play action throughout the game. One variable that will help the over when talking about the loss of Shockey is the likelihood of the Giants offense using more max protect schemes. He will be replaced by blocking tight ends, which will double the NFL sack leader Burgess, allowing more time for Manning in the pocket. The bottom line is this is the ideal match up for the Giants offense to get things back on track, and show that they are able to put together an impressive offensive showing both at home and on the road.

It is quite evident that the Raiders offense has given up on the year, and is not playing hard for Turner. However, there are a few variables that point to a more inspirational performance out of them this week. First of all, Collins would love to put forth an impressive showing against the team that released him two years ago. Nothing would please him more than to play the spoiler role against the Giants, and knock them out of the playoffs. He actually played better last week than his stats would indicate, as he was victimized by poor route running and nine drops by the Raiders receivers. This is also a home game for the Raiders, and they are playing in front of fans that are publicly fed up with their lack of motivation. Davis has also expressed displeasure during the weak, and has been making subliminal threats towards the Raiders offense. Moss and Porters lack of heart has been getting more and more attention by the media. All these variables point towards a more inspirational performance out of the Raiders offense. Inspiration alone however, is not enough to warrant a play on the over. There also has to be enough fundamental variables to be favoring the over as well.

The Raiders will be without Jordan for the second week in a row. One would initially think this favors the under, however I disagree. Jordan?s presence forces the Raiders into a more smash mouth offense that relies more on the run than the pass. He is now replaced by two running backs trying to earn roster spots, and will more than likely put forth a solid effort even if they have nothing to play for. Crocket provides the Raiders with a north/south bruiser that could be advantageous against a depleted interior run defense the Giants will put on the field. Fargas provides the Raiders with speed and big play ability that will be matched up with an inexperienced second level run defense that might be vulnerable to allowing the big run. These two running backs, however, won?t make the Raiders a run first offense, but rather use it as a supplement to their passing game. The Giants corners are also injured and got torched last week by the Redskins. If the Raiders receivers play to their capabilities, the Giants corners will be overmatched and vulnerable to the second level passing game. The vulnerability in the Giants secondary will force them to create pressure with their front seven. Although they have proven more than capable of this, the Raiders will more than likely counter with max protect schemes that will give the Raiders receivers ample time to take advantage of the Giants corners. The bottom line is if the Raiders offense decides to show up, they have enough talent to take advantage of the Giants defensive injuries and cross country trip to the west coast that might take its toll on them.

Cons:
The Giants offense is much more efficient at home. Manning still appears to be flustered away from home, as his accuracy decreases and his mistakes increase on the road. The Giants offense will also be without Shockey. He not only provides the Giants with a passing target, but his blocking ability also helps the run. He also is a huge red zone threat, and his absence might cause some of the better Giants drives to end with three points instead of seven. (Note: I feel his absence has been compensated in the steadily decreasing line, as the over opened this morning at 43.5, and has been lowered to 40.5 in reaction to this news). The Raiders defense has not shown any quit in them, as they have been playing hard for their coordinator. Their red zone defense appears to be improving, while the unit as a whole has done an impressive job in defending the good field position that their anemic offense has allowed their opponents to start with. On the other hand, there is no unit in football that has given up more than the Raiders offense. Their offensive line appears to not be blocking hard for their running backs and Collins. This does not bode well for Collins, as he is up against the best pass rushing duo in football. Collins has clearly proven inefficient under pressure, and could end some successful drives with turnovers. Moss and Porter have put forth a horrific effort as of late. Porter has showcased alligator arms and butterfingers, forcing some of the better thrown Collins balls to end in incompletions. Moss has showcased horrible route running and blocking, that makes opposing defenses to better predict what side of the field the ball is being thrown to. He also appears to be running only one route, and is rarely going deep. The Raiders lack of an ideal running back, might force their offense to become one dimensional early, and much easier to defend. This will also allow the Giants to tee off on Collins.

Conclusion:

Although the Raiders defense has been playing hard, this is not an ideal match up for them. They struggle against this style of running game, while their pass defense should be overmatched by the variety of weapons Manning could go to. Burnout is also in the cards for them, as they might be fed up with the effort their offense has put forth. Expect the Raiders offense to show some heart this week, as the home crowd, Collins? revenge, the spoiler role, and Davis?s threats will give them something to play for. In my opinion, the total is set to low in this match. I like the over.