Some people say week 17 is by far the hardest week to handicap pro football games. More than likely, these people are fundamental handicappers that heavily rely on the fundamentals, match ups, and breaking down the game to decipher what the most compelling side is. They claim this week is hard because almost every team has nothing to play for, as their fate has already been settled. Prior to fundamentally breaking down the game, these handicappers have to first decipher what teams will play their starters, what starters will play hard, and what teams will lie down. These added variables make it much harder to break down a game accurately, and makes it more of a guessing game.
With that said, some handicappers claim this week is the easiest week to turn in a profit. These handicappers tend to be more technical, psychological, and middle handicappers that rely on systems and line movements to make their handicapping decisions. They claim the psychological variables in each game have such a great weight in the outcome, that they could more accurately predict the outcome of the game. System players also like this week, as the high and uncharacteristic spreads allow for a lot of their lines to fall into their systems. Lastly, week 17 lines are by far the most volatile, allowing both technical handicappers that react to line movements and middlers who also react to line disparity to make moves.
As a fundamental handicapper, I am a bit lost this week. However, here are some of the things I am looking at in each game.
Giants @ Raiders (+8): With a win, the Giants win the division, and could also get the third seed to avoid the Seahawks in the second round. You better believe that Coughlin will get his team to treat this as if it were a playoff game. On the flip side, the Raiders have apparently packed it in for the year. However, nothing would please Collins more than to play spoiler role against a team that released him only two years ago. The question is can he get the rest of his team motivated and play hard in this game as well. Being the last game of the season, at home, and players auditioning for a job next year, one would think he can. Looking at how the Raiders have played the last few games, one would think not. Line makers are apparently thinking the Raiders have packed it in, making them a near double digit underdog at home against an east coast team.
Opinion: As many times I have been burned by the Raiders this year, I still think they are the more compelling side in this game. The Raiders defense has actually been playing well recently, including last weeks game against one of the better offenses in football. The Giants defense appears to be depleted, and if Collins could get his troops motivated, he could follow the Redskins game plan, and pick apart the Giants secondary. Laying 8 on an east coast road team seems a bit pricey in my opinion, even with a division title at stake. With that said, I have been burned enough by the Raiders, and will more than likely lay off this game.
Broncos @ Chargers (-8): The Broncos are more than likely to rest their starters in this game for at least 3 quarters. They have the second seed and a first round bye clinched, therefore, will be in the same positions with a win or a loss. Their backup quarterback is inexperienced while the Broncos backup running backs are more than capable. However, it?s the Chargers pass defense that has plagued them this year, as they are one of the best teams defending the run. If the Chargers defense gets motivated to play hard, the Broncos will more than likely not score many points. However, getting motivated is a huge question mark. The Chargers are out of the playoffs with a disappointing performance last week against the Chiefs. How much effort will they put forth here? Tomlinson appears to be hurt and will more than likely not see much playing time. This also might be an opportune time to see what Rivers is made of. From that standpoint, laying this many points is not worth it in my opinion. However, the Chargers always play hard for the home crowds, and would love to avenge their loss to the Broncos earlier this year.
Opinion: Too many psychological variables in this one. Seems to be a guessing game here. It is apparent neither team will put forth their best effort and will rest their playmakers on offense. The total seems to be set rather high, maybe too high for some backup quarterbacks and running backs.
Cardinals @ Colts (-7): The Cardinals roster is stockpiled with young players fighting for a roster spot next year. This includes their quarterback that is trying to prove he is worthy of a starting job next year. From this standpoint, expect the Cardinals to play hard. However, they appear to play much softer away from home, and their defense appeared to lay down in Texas two weeks ago. They have always made for a poor road investment, and with no more games to play, they might just pack it in. The Colts will continue to play their subs. Although they somewhat held their own last week on the road against a formable opponents, laying a touchdown on a bunch of backups is not compelling in my opinion. Don?t expect the Colts to come into this game doing all they can to win. This is an audition game for them.
Opinion: Auditions games for both teams. The underdog is always an attractive option in these games. The Cardinals offense has a lot of playmakers, while the Colts offense will have a lot of subs in. The Cardinals defense is playing hard and has improved drastically since the beginning of the year. The Colts defense is injured will play a conventional game plan and substitutes. Cardinals might be worth a shot here.
Ravens @ Browns (-3): Is there any other team in football that the public is more in love with than the Ravens at the moment? Case in point, they opened as a pick last week and closed at a 3.5 favorite. They followed up by opening up as a 1 point favorite this week and are currently laying 3. They might warrant such respect though. Boller appears to be playing like an entirely different player, and has finally been able to capitalize on the playmakers he is supplemented with in the passing game. The Ravens defense is on fire, and playing hard even with only pride to play for. However, laying a field goal on a team that has yet to win a road game is not compelling at all in my opinion. The Browns appeared to be playing hard for their coach up until last weeks 41 to 0 loss to the Steelers. Frye finally started to play like a rookie, and their defense appeared to have finally packed it in. However, the Browns always play harder at home, and would love to end the season on a more positive note after last weeks embarrassment. Expect them to put forth a hard fought effort to try to get their home record to .500.
Opinion: As well as the Ravens have been playing; they don?t appear to be a compelling play here. The fact is they have always played much better at home this year, and might be the worst road team in football. The Browns might be worth a shot here. With that said, the under might be the best side in this game. It seems to be set too high for two poor offenses. Last time these two teams played, the score was 16 to 3. Now the total is set at 37?
Panthers @ Falcons (-4): A win and the Panthers are into the playoffs. A win and some help, and the Panthers win their division. It is safe to say that they will be definitely approaching this game as if it were a playoff game, and should come out with a lot of intensity after losing in the fashion they did last week. They play a team that they handedly beat less than a month ago, and now play the Falcons when they don?t have anything to play for. How much effort will the Falcons be able to put forth, after losing in the fashion they did the last two weeks against the type of defenses they played. It is safe to say, the Falcons have hit one of the franchises low points this week, which has more than likely took everything out of the team. But this variable appears to be already factored into the line, as they are getting 4 points inside their dome.
Opinion: It?s hard not to think the Panthers will win this game. They have always played the Falcons well, and things shouldn?t change this week as they have something to play for while the Falcons don?t. But will they be able to win by more than 4? Although they seem to be a bit pricey, they still might be worth the risk here.
Bills @ Jets (+1): This game is nearly impossible to fundamentally handicap, as it consists of two teams with absolutely nothing to play for. Being a divisional rivalry, you might see a solid effort out of both teams, or one of them could lie down as they have in the past. Being the last game, both might also lie down, so it?s safe to say that anything could happen here. The Bills will probably put Losman back in the lineup, so don?t expect the offense to run as smoothly as it did last week with Holcomb starting. The Jets might also play around with their quarterbacks. Add the weather variable, and this is a classic stay away game.
Opinion: How do you handicap the Bills? They lie down one game, and then win a road game against the Bengals. One thing is for sure; their offense is not nearly as good with Losman in. Both offenses should struggle moving the chains. The wind might turn this into a run fest. The under is the most compelling position in this game in my opinion.
With that said, some handicappers claim this week is the easiest week to turn in a profit. These handicappers tend to be more technical, psychological, and middle handicappers that rely on systems and line movements to make their handicapping decisions. They claim the psychological variables in each game have such a great weight in the outcome, that they could more accurately predict the outcome of the game. System players also like this week, as the high and uncharacteristic spreads allow for a lot of their lines to fall into their systems. Lastly, week 17 lines are by far the most volatile, allowing both technical handicappers that react to line movements and middlers who also react to line disparity to make moves.
As a fundamental handicapper, I am a bit lost this week. However, here are some of the things I am looking at in each game.
Giants @ Raiders (+8): With a win, the Giants win the division, and could also get the third seed to avoid the Seahawks in the second round. You better believe that Coughlin will get his team to treat this as if it were a playoff game. On the flip side, the Raiders have apparently packed it in for the year. However, nothing would please Collins more than to play spoiler role against a team that released him only two years ago. The question is can he get the rest of his team motivated and play hard in this game as well. Being the last game of the season, at home, and players auditioning for a job next year, one would think he can. Looking at how the Raiders have played the last few games, one would think not. Line makers are apparently thinking the Raiders have packed it in, making them a near double digit underdog at home against an east coast team.
Opinion: As many times I have been burned by the Raiders this year, I still think they are the more compelling side in this game. The Raiders defense has actually been playing well recently, including last weeks game against one of the better offenses in football. The Giants defense appears to be depleted, and if Collins could get his troops motivated, he could follow the Redskins game plan, and pick apart the Giants secondary. Laying 8 on an east coast road team seems a bit pricey in my opinion, even with a division title at stake. With that said, I have been burned enough by the Raiders, and will more than likely lay off this game.
Broncos @ Chargers (-8): The Broncos are more than likely to rest their starters in this game for at least 3 quarters. They have the second seed and a first round bye clinched, therefore, will be in the same positions with a win or a loss. Their backup quarterback is inexperienced while the Broncos backup running backs are more than capable. However, it?s the Chargers pass defense that has plagued them this year, as they are one of the best teams defending the run. If the Chargers defense gets motivated to play hard, the Broncos will more than likely not score many points. However, getting motivated is a huge question mark. The Chargers are out of the playoffs with a disappointing performance last week against the Chiefs. How much effort will they put forth here? Tomlinson appears to be hurt and will more than likely not see much playing time. This also might be an opportune time to see what Rivers is made of. From that standpoint, laying this many points is not worth it in my opinion. However, the Chargers always play hard for the home crowds, and would love to avenge their loss to the Broncos earlier this year.
Opinion: Too many psychological variables in this one. Seems to be a guessing game here. It is apparent neither team will put forth their best effort and will rest their playmakers on offense. The total seems to be set rather high, maybe too high for some backup quarterbacks and running backs.
Cardinals @ Colts (-7): The Cardinals roster is stockpiled with young players fighting for a roster spot next year. This includes their quarterback that is trying to prove he is worthy of a starting job next year. From this standpoint, expect the Cardinals to play hard. However, they appear to play much softer away from home, and their defense appeared to lay down in Texas two weeks ago. They have always made for a poor road investment, and with no more games to play, they might just pack it in. The Colts will continue to play their subs. Although they somewhat held their own last week on the road against a formable opponents, laying a touchdown on a bunch of backups is not compelling in my opinion. Don?t expect the Colts to come into this game doing all they can to win. This is an audition game for them.
Opinion: Auditions games for both teams. The underdog is always an attractive option in these games. The Cardinals offense has a lot of playmakers, while the Colts offense will have a lot of subs in. The Cardinals defense is playing hard and has improved drastically since the beginning of the year. The Colts defense is injured will play a conventional game plan and substitutes. Cardinals might be worth a shot here.
Ravens @ Browns (-3): Is there any other team in football that the public is more in love with than the Ravens at the moment? Case in point, they opened as a pick last week and closed at a 3.5 favorite. They followed up by opening up as a 1 point favorite this week and are currently laying 3. They might warrant such respect though. Boller appears to be playing like an entirely different player, and has finally been able to capitalize on the playmakers he is supplemented with in the passing game. The Ravens defense is on fire, and playing hard even with only pride to play for. However, laying a field goal on a team that has yet to win a road game is not compelling at all in my opinion. The Browns appeared to be playing hard for their coach up until last weeks 41 to 0 loss to the Steelers. Frye finally started to play like a rookie, and their defense appeared to have finally packed it in. However, the Browns always play harder at home, and would love to end the season on a more positive note after last weeks embarrassment. Expect them to put forth a hard fought effort to try to get their home record to .500.
Opinion: As well as the Ravens have been playing; they don?t appear to be a compelling play here. The fact is they have always played much better at home this year, and might be the worst road team in football. The Browns might be worth a shot here. With that said, the under might be the best side in this game. It seems to be set too high for two poor offenses. Last time these two teams played, the score was 16 to 3. Now the total is set at 37?
Panthers @ Falcons (-4): A win and the Panthers are into the playoffs. A win and some help, and the Panthers win their division. It is safe to say that they will be definitely approaching this game as if it were a playoff game, and should come out with a lot of intensity after losing in the fashion they did last week. They play a team that they handedly beat less than a month ago, and now play the Falcons when they don?t have anything to play for. How much effort will the Falcons be able to put forth, after losing in the fashion they did the last two weeks against the type of defenses they played. It is safe to say, the Falcons have hit one of the franchises low points this week, which has more than likely took everything out of the team. But this variable appears to be already factored into the line, as they are getting 4 points inside their dome.
Opinion: It?s hard not to think the Panthers will win this game. They have always played the Falcons well, and things shouldn?t change this week as they have something to play for while the Falcons don?t. But will they be able to win by more than 4? Although they seem to be a bit pricey, they still might be worth the risk here.
Bills @ Jets (+1): This game is nearly impossible to fundamentally handicap, as it consists of two teams with absolutely nothing to play for. Being a divisional rivalry, you might see a solid effort out of both teams, or one of them could lie down as they have in the past. Being the last game, both might also lie down, so it?s safe to say that anything could happen here. The Bills will probably put Losman back in the lineup, so don?t expect the offense to run as smoothly as it did last week with Holcomb starting. The Jets might also play around with their quarterbacks. Add the weather variable, and this is a classic stay away game.
Opinion: How do you handicap the Bills? They lie down one game, and then win a road game against the Bengals. One thing is for sure; their offense is not nearly as good with Losman in. Both offenses should struggle moving the chains. The wind might turn this into a run fest. The under is the most compelling position in this game in my opinion.
