Here are some comments about this week's games:
CAROLINA +3
CAR/PITT UNDER 37
Better team and more expereinced QB rotation, getting points. Panthers have been a fabulous preseason team as Coach Fox obvioulsy takes these games seriously. Carollina a perfect 3-0 in preseason. Both teams should run the ball quite a bit, which also points to an UNDER. Steelers have scored a lot of points in pre-season, but indications are they will show much less in this game with the two rookie QBs. RB duo expected to play only a quarter, if that. Close low scoring 17-16 type of game expected.
CINCY +3
Strong trend favors Bengals which suggests playing on teams the week after a blowout loss, coming back home the following week. Bengals were ripped apart by 27 points last week at ATL and are likley to take this game more serioulsy than the Colts, who got a home win last week. Reasonable number to lay.
SAN DIEGO +5
Two bad teams, so I'll take the points. Chargers were in a similiar spot on the road two weeks ago and rolled over the miserable Cardinals in Phoenix. 49ers a similiar foe. Chargers motivation is enhanced by Coach Shottenheimer keeping starting rotation secret (we still don't know the starter QB for Week 1), which could add to a bit more intensity. Chargers are coming off a poor, mistkae-filled effort versus Oakland last week and should keep this one reasonably close. Why would anyone lay this many points with the awful 0-3 49ers who give up 25+ points per game?
NY JETS -3
Coach Edwards has proven to be an excellent bet the final week of the pres-season, as he is 2-0 in 1H and 2-0 on the game ATS the past two seasons. I like the fact a coach jumps to an early lead, an indication of a motivated team. Eagles are likley to go through the motions this week, as Coach Reid has been a notorious ATS road bet in pre-season.
MIAMI +3
Dolphins are another 2-0 (1H) and 2-0 (game) team the last two years in the final pre-season game with Coach Wannstedt. Many questions with the Dolphins this year, especially on offense -- just 26 points scored in three games. Look for a confidence builder here, as QBs Fiedler and Feeley battle for the starting job (Fiedler likely to start, but job shaky). Saints are coming off a win and are 2-1, while the Dolphins appear to need this game a bit more, as a confidence builder going into the regular season. QB Brooks out for NOR, adds to the value of Fins +3
6-POINT TEASER
TENN (pick)
DET +.5
Solid home teams playing with more motivation, should win. After Al Michaels blathered last week about Week 4 being Titan's "dress rehersal" line rocketed from 4.5 to 7 in some place, and is now down to 6. Actually, Titans lost 14-10 at home in Week 4 of pre-season two years ago, so there are no assurances that Titans are a lock to win. However, after watching QB Favre's interview yesterday (NFL Insider on DirectTV), he stated the Packers are putting in no preparation for this game. Titans looked crisp on offense last week, and back at home are a solid pick to win. Hard to foresee any effort from Packers that would indicate a road upset. In the other game, Detroit has been an excellent home team and is expected to a deent play backup QB 2-3 quarters. Lions are 1-2 and lost their previous game at home, giving them extra motivation this week. Bills QB backups have much less expereince, and will have trouble on the road. I was very UNIMPRESSED with Bills new head coach last week (in the special audio game), as it seems he doesn't really have the focus nor expereince of a coach like Mariucci. I expect a very lackluster effort from the Bills in this game, while the Lions play at home in front of the home crowd and roll to victory. Good bet here on the teaser, since the numbers are right.
KANSAS CITY +3
DALL/KC UNDER 39.5
Dallas offense (passing game) was in top form last week, but I epxect less motivated effort here. Dallas off a Monday night game, as well -- two days rest (Titans have an extra day, since they play Friday -- see above) Cowboys running game was almost non-existent and clearly needs work. Look for Coach Parcells to work on the runnig game here and examine depth, which should indicate a lower scoring game than is expected. In a game where the offensive starters will rest at least 3 quarters, I'll take the +3 with the superior team. Kansas City also coming off bizarre upset loss at home -- they led 16-0 most of the way and then were burned by two late TDs. KC has now allowed two backdoor covers (NYG and CLEVE) after the first two units dominated the erly part of games. I don't think this will happen again, and Chiefs coming off the loss could be slightly more motivated to win.
CHICAGO +3.5
Bears are 2-1 and continue to look for offensive consistency -- which I think leads to a play here. Browns won a game with smoke and mirrors last week (two TDs in final 5 minutes, including the last play) -- Cleveland was severely outplayed for three quarters in that game. I haven't seen enough positive things from the Browns to justify laying anythign over a FG, so I'm taking the points.
--Nolan Dalla
CAROLINA +3
CAR/PITT UNDER 37
Better team and more expereinced QB rotation, getting points. Panthers have been a fabulous preseason team as Coach Fox obvioulsy takes these games seriously. Carollina a perfect 3-0 in preseason. Both teams should run the ball quite a bit, which also points to an UNDER. Steelers have scored a lot of points in pre-season, but indications are they will show much less in this game with the two rookie QBs. RB duo expected to play only a quarter, if that. Close low scoring 17-16 type of game expected.
CINCY +3
Strong trend favors Bengals which suggests playing on teams the week after a blowout loss, coming back home the following week. Bengals were ripped apart by 27 points last week at ATL and are likley to take this game more serioulsy than the Colts, who got a home win last week. Reasonable number to lay.
SAN DIEGO +5
Two bad teams, so I'll take the points. Chargers were in a similiar spot on the road two weeks ago and rolled over the miserable Cardinals in Phoenix. 49ers a similiar foe. Chargers motivation is enhanced by Coach Shottenheimer keeping starting rotation secret (we still don't know the starter QB for Week 1), which could add to a bit more intensity. Chargers are coming off a poor, mistkae-filled effort versus Oakland last week and should keep this one reasonably close. Why would anyone lay this many points with the awful 0-3 49ers who give up 25+ points per game?
NY JETS -3
Coach Edwards has proven to be an excellent bet the final week of the pres-season, as he is 2-0 in 1H and 2-0 on the game ATS the past two seasons. I like the fact a coach jumps to an early lead, an indication of a motivated team. Eagles are likley to go through the motions this week, as Coach Reid has been a notorious ATS road bet in pre-season.
MIAMI +3
Dolphins are another 2-0 (1H) and 2-0 (game) team the last two years in the final pre-season game with Coach Wannstedt. Many questions with the Dolphins this year, especially on offense -- just 26 points scored in three games. Look for a confidence builder here, as QBs Fiedler and Feeley battle for the starting job (Fiedler likely to start, but job shaky). Saints are coming off a win and are 2-1, while the Dolphins appear to need this game a bit more, as a confidence builder going into the regular season. QB Brooks out for NOR, adds to the value of Fins +3
6-POINT TEASER
TENN (pick)
DET +.5
Solid home teams playing with more motivation, should win. After Al Michaels blathered last week about Week 4 being Titan's "dress rehersal" line rocketed from 4.5 to 7 in some place, and is now down to 6. Actually, Titans lost 14-10 at home in Week 4 of pre-season two years ago, so there are no assurances that Titans are a lock to win. However, after watching QB Favre's interview yesterday (NFL Insider on DirectTV), he stated the Packers are putting in no preparation for this game. Titans looked crisp on offense last week, and back at home are a solid pick to win. Hard to foresee any effort from Packers that would indicate a road upset. In the other game, Detroit has been an excellent home team and is expected to a deent play backup QB 2-3 quarters. Lions are 1-2 and lost their previous game at home, giving them extra motivation this week. Bills QB backups have much less expereince, and will have trouble on the road. I was very UNIMPRESSED with Bills new head coach last week (in the special audio game), as it seems he doesn't really have the focus nor expereince of a coach like Mariucci. I expect a very lackluster effort from the Bills in this game, while the Lions play at home in front of the home crowd and roll to victory. Good bet here on the teaser, since the numbers are right.
KANSAS CITY +3
DALL/KC UNDER 39.5
Dallas offense (passing game) was in top form last week, but I epxect less motivated effort here. Dallas off a Monday night game, as well -- two days rest (Titans have an extra day, since they play Friday -- see above) Cowboys running game was almost non-existent and clearly needs work. Look for Coach Parcells to work on the runnig game here and examine depth, which should indicate a lower scoring game than is expected. In a game where the offensive starters will rest at least 3 quarters, I'll take the +3 with the superior team. Kansas City also coming off bizarre upset loss at home -- they led 16-0 most of the way and then were burned by two late TDs. KC has now allowed two backdoor covers (NYG and CLEVE) after the first two units dominated the erly part of games. I don't think this will happen again, and Chiefs coming off the loss could be slightly more motivated to win.
CHICAGO +3.5
Bears are 2-1 and continue to look for offensive consistency -- which I think leads to a play here. Browns won a game with smoke and mirrors last week (two TDs in final 5 minutes, including the last play) -- Cleveland was severely outplayed for three quarters in that game. I haven't seen enough positive things from the Browns to justify laying anythign over a FG, so I'm taking the points.
--Nolan Dalla
