Before we step into Week 4 and discover why there?s value on the Colts-Titans total and find out if the Raiders are worth a play, let?s take a quick look back on this past Sunday.
Three lessons learned from Week 3:
Don?t bet against the Patriots, even when they?re on the road against a good team.
Don?t assume that if the favorite wins it?s going to automatically cover. The Colts, Rams, Eagles, Buccaneers and Cowboys proved that. Thanks to those five favorites failing to cover, bookmakers enjoyed a very profitable Sunday even though they lost big when the Chargers did cover against the Giants.
Do jump on the Bengals? bandwagon. They are rapidly becoming a public team with Carson Palmer showing signs of becoming the next great quarterback. Recreational gamblers were all over the Bengals against the Bears.
Now, looking ahead, the Bengals host the Texans in a bid to open 4-0 for the first time since their Super Bowl season of 1988. So the line on Monday morning was Cincy -10. It has been 10 years since the Bengals were favored by more than seven points. It?s a bargain, though.
?I have the Bengals by 13 in my power ratings,? said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies lines to many of the hotels in Nevada. ?We (LVSC) opened them 10 ?.?
Not only are the Texans the worst team in the NFL, but Hurricane Rita has played havoc with their practice schedule and concentration. David Carr is on pace to be sacked 104 times, and Andre Johnson is averaging less than 20 receiving yards a game.
Seba is surprised the Colts-Titans over/under is just 45. LVSC recommended 47 to their clients, which seems more appropriate.
?I think it [the total] goes up,? Seba said. ?Tennessee doesn?t have the defense to slow down the Colts, and its offense has shown something.?
The Colts are averaging just 15.6 points, while their defense has surrendered only 16 points in three games. Yes, the Colts definitely could be more efficient in the red zone, but they?ve gone against two strong defenses in Baltimore and Jacksonville. Meanwhile, their defense has competed against three bad offenses ? Ravens, Jaguars and Browns.
Indy?s defense is improved. Dwight Freeney is a sack machine and the secondary is healthy. But Indy?s defense isn?t nearly this good.
Oakland has yet to break 20 points this season. So it?s not a shock the Raiders are 0-3. That makes them a desperate team and partially explains why they are 3-point favorites at home against the Cowboys.
It?s the Cowboys? second consecutive West Coast game. Dallas is staying in Northern California, having played the 49ers Sunday.
?I could see it going to 3 ?,? Seba said. ?The Raiders should have beat Kansas City and they nearly beat the Eagles in Philadelphia.?
It?s scary to think of the damage Randy Moss can inflict on a Dallas secondary that allowed Keenan McCardell to catch nine passes for 123 yards opening week, gave up 159 yards and two touchdowns to Santana Moss, and 142 yards and two touchdowns to Brandon Lloyd this past week.
Can anyone explain why the Cardinals are 3-point favorites at a neutral site against the 49ers?
This is the Sunday night game and it?s going to be played in Mexico City. The 49ers defeated the Cards twice last year, and are better coached and far healthier this season. The Cards suffered multiple injuries against the Seahawks Sunday, including a groin injury to Kurt Warner.
Arizona has committed 16 more penalties than its opponents. Plus, its defense has been disappointing and the offense has produced one touchdown. So, again, why are the Cardinals favored? Shouldn?t this game be a pick?
?That?s very surprising to me that it?s up to (Cards) -3,? Seba said. ?I could see it ending up at 1 ? by game time. You know San Francisco can score. You don?t know if Arizona can score.?
Three lessons learned from Week 3:
Don?t bet against the Patriots, even when they?re on the road against a good team.
Don?t assume that if the favorite wins it?s going to automatically cover. The Colts, Rams, Eagles, Buccaneers and Cowboys proved that. Thanks to those five favorites failing to cover, bookmakers enjoyed a very profitable Sunday even though they lost big when the Chargers did cover against the Giants.
Do jump on the Bengals? bandwagon. They are rapidly becoming a public team with Carson Palmer showing signs of becoming the next great quarterback. Recreational gamblers were all over the Bengals against the Bears.
Now, looking ahead, the Bengals host the Texans in a bid to open 4-0 for the first time since their Super Bowl season of 1988. So the line on Monday morning was Cincy -10. It has been 10 years since the Bengals were favored by more than seven points. It?s a bargain, though.
?I have the Bengals by 13 in my power ratings,? said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies lines to many of the hotels in Nevada. ?We (LVSC) opened them 10 ?.?
Not only are the Texans the worst team in the NFL, but Hurricane Rita has played havoc with their practice schedule and concentration. David Carr is on pace to be sacked 104 times, and Andre Johnson is averaging less than 20 receiving yards a game.
Seba is surprised the Colts-Titans over/under is just 45. LVSC recommended 47 to their clients, which seems more appropriate.
?I think it [the total] goes up,? Seba said. ?Tennessee doesn?t have the defense to slow down the Colts, and its offense has shown something.?
The Colts are averaging just 15.6 points, while their defense has surrendered only 16 points in three games. Yes, the Colts definitely could be more efficient in the red zone, but they?ve gone against two strong defenses in Baltimore and Jacksonville. Meanwhile, their defense has competed against three bad offenses ? Ravens, Jaguars and Browns.
Indy?s defense is improved. Dwight Freeney is a sack machine and the secondary is healthy. But Indy?s defense isn?t nearly this good.
Oakland has yet to break 20 points this season. So it?s not a shock the Raiders are 0-3. That makes them a desperate team and partially explains why they are 3-point favorites at home against the Cowboys.
It?s the Cowboys? second consecutive West Coast game. Dallas is staying in Northern California, having played the 49ers Sunday.
?I could see it going to 3 ?,? Seba said. ?The Raiders should have beat Kansas City and they nearly beat the Eagles in Philadelphia.?
It?s scary to think of the damage Randy Moss can inflict on a Dallas secondary that allowed Keenan McCardell to catch nine passes for 123 yards opening week, gave up 159 yards and two touchdowns to Santana Moss, and 142 yards and two touchdowns to Brandon Lloyd this past week.
Can anyone explain why the Cardinals are 3-point favorites at a neutral site against the 49ers?
This is the Sunday night game and it?s going to be played in Mexico City. The 49ers defeated the Cards twice last year, and are better coached and far healthier this season. The Cards suffered multiple injuries against the Seahawks Sunday, including a groin injury to Kurt Warner.
Arizona has committed 16 more penalties than its opponents. Plus, its defense has been disappointing and the offense has produced one touchdown. So, again, why are the Cardinals favored? Shouldn?t this game be a pick?
?That?s very surprising to me that it?s up to (Cards) -3,? Seba said. ?I could see it ending up at 1 ? by game time. You know San Francisco can score. You don?t know if Arizona can score.?
