nfl wildcard games....

[AR182]

not playing the first game & making a small play on the 2nd.....

under 51 indy / sd....

i made this play a few days ago but forgot to post it...i guess i was too busy with the bowl games....i would play this with a total of 49 or higher....

we all know that sd scored 52 points last week, but that was against a bad denver defense.......when sd played 5 games vs. playoff teams this year (carolina, pitt, indy, atlanta, & miami), they averaged just 16 points per game (compared to 32.6 ppg vs. non-playoff teams) & 4 of those 5 games went under the total (compared to a 7-3-1 mark 'over' the total vs. non-playoff teams).........

when sd last played against indy, the colts' defense held them to 20 points in indy's 23-20 win back in nov...... the colts defense has been playing very well lately & have given up 10.8 points per game over their last five games....indy played 4 of their 6 games under the total against teams that went on to make the playoffs, & gave up an average of 14.8 ppg in those six games, while scoring just 23.3 ppg.....indy has gone under in 5 of their last 7 playoff games, & sd has gone under in 8 of their last 11 in the post-season.......

wild card games are 3-13 under since 2000 when a team is playing off a big win (sd) in their final regular season game.....3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have gone under, with the 1 over in that span barely getting there.......

some trends....

indy is 6-0 under after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons......the average score was indy 19.7, opponent 14.0.....

indy is 8-0 under after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was indy 19.4, opponent 12.6.....

a system....

play under - home teams against the total (sd) - excellent passing team (>=7.3 pya) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 pya) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.

since 1983 the ats record is......35-8......81.4%

the situation's record this season is.....1-0....

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....7-1....87.5%


good luck

 

[AR182]

hit my play on the under in the sd / indy game......making another small play in the balt / miami game....

miami+4(120)....

there are a few reasons why i like miami....

eventhough balt. beat miami earlier this year 27-13, miami actually out yarded balt. & even threw for 288 yards in that game which was the most balt. has allowed all season long....at home the balt defense held every opponent to 13 points or less with an average of just 10 ppg...but on the road, balt has allowed an average of 20.5 ppg.....i also like that miami is playing extremely well now having won 9 of their last 10 games & get a chance to revenge that earlier loss at home as a dog......& finally if you look at balt's wins this year, you will notice that they were 11-1 su /ats against sub .666 opposition & 0-4 su & 1-3 ats against .666 or greater competition.....

also....playoff teams who own the same or better win % than their favored opponent are 16-9 su & 19-5-1 ats in postseason play since 1980.....

a system....

play on - any team (miami) - revenging a home loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season......

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is......25-4.......86.2%

the situation's record this season is......3-0.....

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.......7-1.....87.5%


i'll take the home dog playing with a veteran qb over the road team playing a rookie qb & a rookie coach.....


good luck

 

[Woodson]

Another key stat for Miami was the loss of ferguson? which allowed McGahee to run up the middle in the last game. Miami will be able to contain the middle now...

I really like the under. Ravens D factored with rookie QB says low scoring game to me...

That being said, I could pass up a chance to play Ravens but may buy it back by game time... Like LT, I;m a game time decision.

Looking forward to your thoughts on Philly.... :toast:

 

[AR182]

Another key stat for Miami was the loss of ferguson? which allowed McGahee to run up the middle in the last game. Miami will be able to contain the middle now...

I really like the under. Ravens D factored with rookie QB says low scoring game to me...

That being said, I could pass up a chance to play Ravens but may buy it back by game time... Like LT, I;m a game time decision.

Looking forward to your thoughts on Philly.... :toast:

thanks woodson....

good point about ferguson..imo this game has 3 points written all over it...it could go either way...

have to go with the home dog again but not sure if i will take them with a tease of the under or separately....

may have to sleep on it...

 

[3 Seconds]

Hate to go against you AR on this one...

A few counter points:

108 of Miami's yards came in the last 6 mins of the 4thQ when they were down 14. 60 in the last minute of the game.(all passing)

I think Flacco has grown tremendously since this game. I think the Ravens O has shown the most improvement of any of the units in this game since the 1st match up.

Miami has won 9 of the last 10, but look at those W's

In reverse order:

Jets by 7
KC by 7
SF by 5
Buff by 13
St.L by 4
Oak by 2
Seattle by 2
Denver by 9
Buff again by 9

The one loss in there was a 20pt blow out by NE.

I dont see one impressive win there, besides, maybe the last one vs the NYJ & we all know how they were playing down the stretch. They probably faced the easy schedule in all of football.

In fact I do believe they only have 1 win over a team w/ a .500+ record in NE, a rivalry divisional game.

Good Luck tomorrow & thanks for all your insights.

:toast:

 

[AR182]

you make good points 3 sec....i think balt is a better team than miami..but imo they are over-priced with a rookie qb on the road......you say flacco has grown tremendously during the season, well so did ryan...but ryan learned that playoffs are a different animal than the regular season....the game is played faster....& i think the balt. coached saw how ryan played & will call a conservative game tomorrow & let the defense win it for them & imo the 4 points will be big....but who knows...:shrug: :142smilie

 

[LA Burns]

Glad to see we're thinking alike - really could be that the 'makers threw the hook out there to entice more Miami action, but this one smells like a close game to me

 

[Woodson]

AR, 3 Sec, and LA

All good points. There is value in Miami against a rookie QB.

The deciding factor for me is Baltimore Defense. I'm sticking with my play of Baltimore -3. However, this is one game that I wouldn't normally touch.

My play is small.

Enjoy the game fellas!

 

[AR182]

i am playing a small 7.5 point teaser for the 2nd game today.....

minn+10.5
under 48.5

believe it or not, tarvaris jackson has a higher yards per attempt (7.1) than donovan mcnabb (6.9)...& in the final 4 games of the regular season, jackson completed 57 of 89 pass attempts & 1 int.....but he is inexperenced, which is the reason for the teaser.....i am not crazy about backing inexperenced qbs in the playoffs & the only reason why i am taking minn. is because they are home, they are a running team, & they have a top 10 defense, as does phil which is the reason why i teased the under....

play against any sub .700 nfl playoff team (phil) off a win of 20 or more points vs. an opponent off an ats loss...

since 1980 the ats record is......14-1-1....93%

play under - road teams against the total (phil) - a very good team (>=+7 ppg differential) against an average team (+/- 3 ppg differential), after allowing 9 points or less last game.

the average total posted in these games was.....40.2

the average score in these games was....team 21.6, opponent 15.8....total points scored = 37.4.....

since 1983 the ats record is.......43-15.....74.1%

the situation's record this season is......2-0

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......10-2......83%


good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

i am playing a small 7.5 point teaser for the 2nd game today.....

minn+10.5
under 48.5

believe it or not, tarvaris jackson has a higher yards per attempt (7.1) than donovan mcnabb (6.9)...& in the final 4 games of the regular season, jackson completed 57 of 89 pass attempts & 1 int.....but he is inexperenced, which is the reason for the teaser.....i am not crazy about backing inexperenced qbs in the playoffs & the only reason why i am taking minn. is because they are home, they are a running team, & they have a top 10 defense, as does phil which is the reason why i teased the under....

play against any sub .700 nfl playoff team (phil) off a win of 20 or more points vs. an opponent off an ats loss...

since 1980 the ats record is......14-1-1....93%

play under - road teams against the total (phil) - a very good team (>=+7 ppg differential) against an average team (+/- 3 ppg differential), after allowing 9 points or less last game.

the average total posted in these games was.....40.2

the average score in these games was....team 21.6, opponent 15.8....total points scored = 37.4.....

since 1983 the ats record is.......43-15.....74.1%

the situation's record this season is......2-0

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......10-2......83%


good luck

what kind of odds you laying with a 2 team 7.5 teaser,bud?....


you gave me an idea about using these 2 with the ravens` under in a 3 teamer at almost even money....

g.l.

 

[AR182]

what kind of odds you laying with a 2 team 7.5 teaser,bud?....


you gave me an idea about using these 2 with the ravens` under in a 3 teamer at almost even money....

g.l.

thanks gw....

i am laying -140 on the 7.5 teaser....

good luck