NFL Wildcard Weekend Thread $$$$$

FirstnGoal

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Another winning week as I hit my lone play and my Lean!


:00hour


FINAL Regular Season Record:

28-20-4

Breakdown:

Teasers:
18-13-3

Sides:
10-7-1

Big 3 unit plays:
1-1

Medium 2 unit plays:
9-4

Small 1 unit plays:
11-8-1

Very Small 1/2 unit plays:
6-6-1

Very Very Small 1/4 Unit plays:
1-1

Total = +9.03 units @ $3000 a unit = +$27,090

Leans:
16-6-1


I'll be breaking down the playoff matchups and post when I decide what to play...I've had good success this season because I've usually waited until the injury report came out for the week before pullingl the trigger on a play unless I really saw a flaw in the line....this week will likely be no different.
 

FirstnGoal

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Small 1 Unit Play:

3 game 10 point Teaser:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 over Vikings
Baltimore Ravens +6.5 over Dolphins
San Diego Chargers +10 over Colts

Eagles +7?The Vikings struggled to win to get in the playoffs last week against a Giants team that rested most of their starters in the second half while the Eagles may have played their best game of the season in beating the Cowboys to make the post-season?not that it means anything at this point but Eagles enter the post-season on a very high note?the Vikings offense centers around the success of their running game and this week they face an Eagles defense that ranks 3rd overall in the entire league in total defense and 4th overall against the run?plus?the Eagles defense loves to create turnovers and Vikings HB Adrian Peterson has put the ball on the carpet 9 times this season?I think Eagles DC Jimmy Johnson will use 8 men in the box to stop the Vikings rushing attack and make QB Tavaris Jackson beat them through the air...Johnson will use several different looks on defense to confuse Jackson and bring the heat when needed with their complex fire-zone blitz package?in my opinion the Eagles defense wins this matchup?on the flip side?the Vikings defense ranked number one versus the run this season but could be without DT Pat Williams (arm injury - Coach Childress admitted that the injury is one where Williams could do more damage if it gets aggravated while playing?if the pain becomes intolerable, he may not play at all)?but the Eagles aren?t your typical run first (Pound the rock) team anyway because they use Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter so often in their short passing game which replaces their running game in some instances?the only matchup that favors the Vikings (if Pat Williams plays) is in the interior of their line because the Eagles have been starting two backup Guards (Todd Herremans and Nick Cole) because of season ending injuries to starters Shawn Andrews and Max-Jean Gillis?with all that stated the Eagles offense will be led by the way their backs are involved in their short passing game and if Brian Westbrook is healthy the Vikings linebackers will be overmatched in this one?all in all?I?ll take a more playoff savvy Eagles team with the better quarterback and better defense overall over a Vikings team that has more question marks than answers?Note- 45% of Vikings season ticket holders declined to purchase their seats for this game?Trends - The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall?plus?the favorite (Eagles) are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two and the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the Vikings?on the flip side?the Vikings are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC, 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0., 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win and just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0?The Eagles advance to the next round.
Philadelphia 20 Minnesota 17
WINNER!!!


Baltimore Ravens +6.5?The Ravens beat the Fins 27-13 in Miami earlier in the season and should repeat the task this time around?the Ravens running game and defense should be the difference on Sunday?Trends -The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0, 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC, but just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home doggie?on the flips side the Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on grass, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
Baltimore 20 Miami 15 WINNER!!!


San Diego Chargers +10?The last 3 games between these two teams have been decided by a total of 9 points?Tomlinson and Gates are banged up for the Chargers but Tomlinson will play while Gates could be a game time decision on Saturday? I?ll take my chances on the home team +10 in this teaser play because the Colts defense is banged up and isn't a very good unit at this time?Trends ? The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win, 8-6-1 ATS in their last 25 vs. AFC, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games?the Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games...The Colts inferior defense will hold them back from advancing to the next round.
San Diego 29 Indianapolis 27 WINNER!!
 
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FirstnGoal

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Lean:

Arizona Cardinals -1 over Falcons

The Cards were dogs when the week began but the line has moved due to some $$$ and injuries that the Falcons have...DE John Abraham is questionable but will likely play hurt...just how effective will he be:confused:...their other end Jamaal Anderson is also questionable along with safety Lawyer Milloy....plus HB Michael Turner was involved in a domestic dispute ( http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2008/12/31/michael-turner-involved-in-domestic-dispute/ earlier this week...could it be a distraction :confused: ...plus rookie QB Matt Ryan has slowed down a bit down the stretch as opposing DC's have more film on him to work with...the Cardinals have always been tough at home and their mini-slump down the stretch came after they clinched the division...just a hunch that the Cards passing attack gets it done at home today...but not enough for me to wager on unless I teased it and got some points.

WINNER!!
 
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FirstnGoal

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With the latest news on the severity of Tomlinsons injury and the fact that Gates will likely be out I hopped on the Colts -pick for 1 unit.. I've got a feeling they will now take this one...I already have the Bolts plus 10 in a teaser so I have a nice middle possibility...I'm posting this from my Iphone and hate the small characters. :mad:
 
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FirstnGoal

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I cleaned up on my teaser play and won my Lean Play once again.

:00hour


But I threw some money away when I took the Colts on Saturday afternoon :mad: after hearing ESPN's report about the severity of Tomlinsons injury plus they stated that both Gates and Tomlinson would likely miss the game...I should have known better than to listen to Chris Mortenson :banghead:
After all the work I did breaking down the games his report swayed me to cover my back because at this point of the season it's all about protecting my earnings for the season. :yup
 
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