Nfl

[IntenseOperator]

Over TB/Atl

Line looks high for these two. Atl coming off a bad game against a defensive minded coach, a game against a defensive minded Carolina squad, and a defensive oriented Houston team. Atl's defense giving up 4 TD's/division game. Atl will score 21+ pts here and TB will be good for a breakout game of 30 against this D. Atl has a lot of guys playing for next years meal ticket. Total here seems high for two teams that have had 3 consecutive Unders and are each 1/6 away (Atl) and home (TB). Scored 41 pts in the 1st matchup with 6 turnovers being committed. Atl only passed for 107 total yards and ran for 29. Thinking this one will be different with Atl coming off a shit performance WITH Vick at the helm, and after playing some good defenses recently.

-Atl 17/6 O/U after scoring nine or less in previous game
-18/8 after a road blowout loss of 14 pts or more, 6/0 last three yrs, 3/0 this yr
-11/4 in a road game with this total, 3/0 last three years
-Atl is 12/3 off 3 or more consecutive unders
-TB is 11/7 after allowing 7 pts or less in the 1st half of two straight games, 4/0 this year
-TB 4/0 after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games, 1/0 this year

Ton of trends favoring the Under in this one but I'm posting what applies to my lean

 

[IntenseOperator]

Minny

Minny at home on carpet is different from Minny on the road. KC a high powered grass team hasn't played a dome game yet. Frisco, another strong offense team on grass was buried in Minny earlier. Also beat Denver here but lost to GB in a close divisional payback game. Minny averages only .7 turnovers at home while KC has greatly benefitted from the oppositions turnover woes on the road in mostly close victories. Minny coming off a bad loss to the Bears while KC blewout a high school dome team at home on grass.

-Minny is 12-5 after failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
-17-5 as a home dog, 7-2 last three years
-10-3 as home dog of three or less, 5-1 last three years
-6-2 SU in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season
-7-2 SU in home games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
--KC is 4-19 SU in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.

 

[IntenseOperator]

off the net

off the net

According to a cover story in The Gold Sheet this week, home dogs in the second-to-the-last week of the regular season are a stunning 33-13-1 ATS.