2006 RECORD: 0-0
Two plays look very tempting this week:
BALT -3 vs. PHILA
SFO +3 vs. OAK
There is a strong trend which applies to both of these games. The trend is to bet against a team that is playing its third pre-season game versus a team playing its second game. The reason is teams playing game three are reluctant to give much of an effort or prepare for this extra game. Coaches will be very wary of injury, especially given the reminder of RB Portis injury with the Redksins last week. OAK and PHILA are playing their third game against teams playing game two.
Over the last ten years, this trend is 17-7-1 (69 percent winners).
Furthermore, I think this trend is made even stronger by a few added factors: OAK is already 2-0 and there is no reason to press for a win. I understand new coaches like to instill confidence, but a team that is already 2-0 is not any more motivated to win its third game. I look for the young 49ers to be hungrier in this game, and they get +3 as an added bonus.
BALT is laying -3 to PHILA -- a situation I normally do not like (laying points in pre-season). However, Andy Reid often takes these games lightly and there's nothing to suggest a strong effort. Another trend favors BALT which is to bet on pre-season home teams playing back to back after they have lost their previous home game (SU). BALT lost 17-16 last week. The line of thought goes that coaches want their teams to develop a winning attitude at home and play to win in the second game. This trend is 12-6 (66 percent) going back ten years.
-- Nolan Dalla
Two plays look very tempting this week:
BALT -3 vs. PHILA
SFO +3 vs. OAK
There is a strong trend which applies to both of these games. The trend is to bet against a team that is playing its third pre-season game versus a team playing its second game. The reason is teams playing game three are reluctant to give much of an effort or prepare for this extra game. Coaches will be very wary of injury, especially given the reminder of RB Portis injury with the Redksins last week. OAK and PHILA are playing their third game against teams playing game two.
Over the last ten years, this trend is 17-7-1 (69 percent winners).
Furthermore, I think this trend is made even stronger by a few added factors: OAK is already 2-0 and there is no reason to press for a win. I understand new coaches like to instill confidence, but a team that is already 2-0 is not any more motivated to win its third game. I look for the young 49ers to be hungrier in this game, and they get +3 as an added bonus.
BALT is laying -3 to PHILA -- a situation I normally do not like (laying points in pre-season). However, Andy Reid often takes these games lightly and there's nothing to suggest a strong effort. Another trend favors BALT which is to bet on pre-season home teams playing back to back after they have lost their previous home game (SU). BALT lost 17-16 last week. The line of thought goes that coaches want their teams to develop a winning attitude at home and play to win in the second game. This trend is 12-6 (66 percent) going back ten years.
-- Nolan Dalla
