NFLX Wk. 4.

[MrChristo]

7-6

Det @ Buff under 34

Getting this one now before it drops...
Detroit want to "work further on their running game", and looks like Kitna will sit.
They've faced some depleted tema so far, but have held them to 10, 10, 6 which isn't a bad effort.
Buff showed last week that they want to protect their only real standing QB...42 running plays to just 29 passes!..at just over 5 ypp.
20 points last week, but 7 from a long fumble return.
Last year's X-meeting was 16-13, 9 of last 10 have gone under, last 4...inc. 7-21 last pre-season game @ Buff.

 

[AR182]

good luck with the play mr. c & for the season...

 

[MrChristo]

:toast: Thanks ar...happy to see you on Atlanta as well...

Atlanta +3

Falcons still with a QB race...Redman, Shockley and Harrington playing for roster spots.
Baltimore look like starting Flacco by default, with his 4.1 ypp av. and 50% completion rate.
Ravens haven't scored more than 16 in 3 games so far, and 10 @ SL is a pretty poor reflection.

Dallas v. Minni under 35

Minni going with Bollinger and Booty for a half each, and both have really struggled, even against 2nd and 3rd string defenses.
Minni have scored 0, 3 & 3 in the second halves of 3 games so far.
Dallas are going with Bartel for the whole game, so points should be hard to come by for them too.
Last year's week 4 NFLX meeting was 14-23, but a 95 yard punt return and just 500 total yards of offense.

 

[MrChristo]

Back with some reasons in a bit...

...but also grabbing these now...

Pits v. Carolina under 36

Think this total is inflated due to the Panthers' 47 last week, but likely no Delhomme, and Steelers have been much better against the run, so 2 x 50+ yard TD's are unlikely!
Leftwich and Dixon both throwing for less than 5 ypp...think conservative play-calling is the order of the day here.
Last year's wk. 4. meeting was 19-3 (with a late pick 7), and Pits ran the ball 39 times
to just 16 passes!!
4 of the last 5 X-meetings have gone under this number.
Looks big again.

Tenn -6

Road teams with 2 or more wins v. home teams with just one win are 30-7 (6-3 last 3 years).
Titans will be playing starters into the 3rd quarter to try to get things going...
...even if the offense continues to struggle, the Titan D should be far too strong for Flynn and Brohm.
Tenn have won last 2 wk. 4. games 30-14 and 35-21 @ GB in '06.

SL +4

Another game in the 'system'. Pretty easy to take, as KC shouldn't really be favoured by 4 over anyone!
Green starting, who knows the system well, Berlin figures to get the most time at QB, and he's been good. Over 8.8 ypp and a rating over 100.

 

[MrChristo]

Cleveland -2

Coach Romeo Crennel gathered the players together after practice Tuesday and told them the starters would play as long it took to look good against the Bears Thursday night in the preseason finale at the stadium.
None of this one-series-and-out if they look as bad as they have the last two games.

"I'd like to win the game for one," said Crennel. "The other thing is, I'd like for us to look decent. It seems that the consensus is that we were decent in the Jets game, even though we lost that one. I'd like to look decent against the Bears and go from there."

Quinn first half, will be much better at home than last week, esp. against a Chicago defense that clearly has problems.
They've alowed 90 points in 3 games, second last in passing yards allowed.
In the 2nd game that Chicago took Seattle to OT they had just 10 FD's, and 205 total offensive yards!!
Beaten at home by KC and SF just about says it all.
Browns loss to the Jets at home was unusual...had 27-11 FD's and 37 minutes TOP to 22...and were 20-10 up until 2 big Jet plays.

Both teams 0-3, but clearly Brownies want it more...and I think they're the better team anyway.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Tailing ya C

Bring home the bacon brother!

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks Pawa...hope you're keeping an eye on the AFL threads this week mate...
...I've had my hands full here. :nono:

Cinci @ Indi under 34.5

Lots of Rudi Johnson tonight! Whether or not the Bengals are shopping him around...

...Offensively, the Bengals will want to convert first downs, primarily on the ground, and control the clock. Chris Perry and Johnson will split time at running back.

Defensively, coordinator Mike Zimmer's group took a step backward against New Orleans.

"The really disappointing thing was the overall effort in the game," Zimmer said. "They just weren't flying around to the football like they had been all through camp. I don't know what the reason for that was, but that was disappointing.

"So, really, that's what I'm looking for this weekend. And like I told them the other day, I want to find out when we get punched a few times, who wants to punch back. We got punched a few times the other night. Who wants to take it, and who wants to get up and give us something?"

Indi going with Lorenzen and Gray all game shouldn't be too much of a scoring threat.
Their last 4 pre-season meetings (all wk. 4.) have gone under. (3 of 4 under this number)

 

[MrChristo]

Home teams with 2 or more wins are a stellar 9-1 ATS as a home dog. (updated '07)

NO +1

Houston +1

Hell of a lot of plays going on here... :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Not sure which was worse...losing Tenn on a last second 22 yard TD (wtf??!!)...
...or just getting the push with KC going 5-12 for 48 yards passing! :shrug:

SF -2.5

49ers are 6-1 at home under Nolan, and were very impressive again v. GB winning easily in wk. 2....held them to just 11 FD's.
SD have struggled without Rivers @ QB...they had just 11 FD's @ Dallas ths season, and just 9 FD's (to 20) at home v. SF last season.
Won 23-14 @ home v. SD in wk. 4. as -4 favs in 2006.