Nhl Betting Tips (part 1) By Wild Bill

[DR STRANGELOVE]

Since hockey season begins Wednesday (Oct. 8), I thought this would be a good time to share some concepts I have had success with in my 10 years of betting this sport.
In the first part of this series, I will break down these concepts for people with little or no experience betting hockey. I will gradually move up to more advanced concepts.

Of the four major sports, hockey is the only one that is so dependent on the handful of opportunities a team gets each game and its ability to cash in on those chances.

There are many games during the season when a team outplays its opponent, yet doesn?t get a favorable result. It?s just a part of NHL betting that must be accepted.

I know a large number of otherwise sharp bettors who said they are going to get into hockey, but then quickly gave up because a couple of these bad beats led them to call the game crazy and unpredictable.

Yes it can be unpredictable on occasion, but overall talent wins out over the long run. If you keep a clear head in spite of these setbacks, you stand to do well. Needless to say, betting hockey for profit requires a fairly good bankroll because of this factor.

Streaks really aren?t worth following in this sport. Unlike other sports where the lines take some time to catch up to a hot or cold team, the hockey line adjusts real fast. The action often just follows which team is hot based on those statistical sheets you see on-line or in the sports book. This is especially true for televised games.

Because of the luck factor, misleading streaks can develop that do not reflect the true current form of a team. A team could be playing very well and still lose a game in the middle of an otherwise long winning streak because of luck.

A team could be in a streak of five ?over? games, but two could be due to an empty-net goal and another thanks to a bad night from the backup goalie. For this reason, I highly suggest avoiding games that have a clear streak going - for either the side or total.

There are times when streaks can be played, but they generally give false signals as to how teams should be matched up in a game. If an average hockey team has won five in a row, the price can be off by 20 to 30 cents. Therefore, it?s hard to see value in betting that team. But, if you are just following streaks or what is on the stat sheet, you probably would see them as an attractive bet.

The last concept involves a decision that has to be made before the season starts. Are you going to bet the money line or the goal line? I advocate playing the goal line simply because there are more sports books that deal it that way. After all, shopping for a good line is the key to success.

In addition, it tends to be closer to even-money prices. When you are starting out, this is good for your sanity and your bankroll.

Which ever wagering option you choose, stick to it unless you get a very compelling price to do otherwise. Be consistent about what line you play and forget second-guessing yourself when you choose the wrong line. Just set the policy and follow it.

I will get into the value of a half-goal in my next article.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

PART 2

PART 2

The second part of my series on hockey betting will touch on two advanced concepts aimed for the experienced bettor ? the value of a half-goal and the production of secondary players.
Part 1 of this guide talked about playing the money line or the puck line. The only reason why a bettor should deviate from one or the other is value.

The value of a half-goal is one of the most common discussions by hockey handicappers. While most bettors think in terms of cents, the proper way to analyze this is by percentage. This fact is actually somewhat misunderstood.

A bettor will see a puck line of Red Wings, minus ? AND minus $1.50. The money line on the game will be Red Wings minus $2.10. The bettor might believe a half-goal is worth 35 cents, so laying the half- goal AND saving 60 cents is a better theoretical value.

In reality, these numbers are balanced. The difference between laying $1.50 and $2.10 correlates to 60 percent and 67.7 percent break-even point, respectively. The difference between an ?even? line and minus $1.35 is 50 percent and 57.4 percent respectively. Therefore, in this example, there is little theoretical value in choosing one over the other.

The best way to handle this is to have a chart that gives the corresponding break-even percentage for money line prices. In general, the 7.5 percent differential is a good rule of thumb.

If, during your shopping for numbers, you find that going away from your preferred line yields over 10 percent value, then play that if you wish. Anything less and I suggest just sticking to your normal line choice. That will help you stay consistent, while avoiding any second-guessing that might occur.

A factor that gets very little discussion, but one that I think is extremely valuable, is the production of a team?s secondary players. While the public and the oddsmaker focus on star players, the secondary players are often what separate the good teams from the bad.

If a team lacks depth, it will literally give a lot of games away. That?s because, unlike some other professional sports, every player on the bench gets playing time.

I like to keep track of ice time and then eliminate the top six players on offense and the top two on defense. I then compile a plus/minus figure for the remaining players.

I add each individual player?s plus/minus for every game and pay special attention to the stats generated in road games. That?s where a coach is less prone to match his players against particular opposing players and where a team is more likely to show signs of fatigue brought on by long road trips.

To use this statistic, keep the running total for the season on a per-game average and keep a four or five-game current form total. When a team?s third and fourth lines are playing well, this statistic is often a ?positive? or ?zero.?

This is what a hockey bettor should study. You want the secondary players to keep the game even or adding a bonus goal. Then let the stars of the team do the rest.

Just compare the season?s average to the current form and you will spot the team on a road trip that looks like it?s running out of gas. You will also be able to spot a team that has gotten lucky with its stars making up for poor play from the bottom of the lineup.

These types of situations are where most hockey blowouts occur. This is also where the ?over? often gets the money due to the secondary players contributing extra goals.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

part 3

part 3

In part three of my four-part series on hockey betting, I will look more closely at getting a predicted score for any given game.
If you can get into the frame of mind of the teams you are betting as if you were traveling with them, your results will surely improve. Every team has only so much emotional and physical energy to spend on the ice. To establish a solid edge over the opening line - which is usually established through generic power ratings and minor adjustments - good schedule reading skills are invaluable.

The best way is to do it in advance. My preference is to scout the schedule on a rolling basis, looking at one month at a time. This should include past and future games, and assigning a value on the effort expected for a team during each contest.

For every 10-game period, I aim to balance things out with some good efforts and some bad efforts totally into an average effort. To this end, I use a one-to-five rating system. As part of my daily log keeping, I look back at the effort I expected and then fine tune.

I go forward once again trying to get a team?s effort over a 10-game period to equal out to a rating of three. My daily predictions include this ?effort? number and I adjust all my game predicted numbers based on that number.

Hockey is a game with football-like emotion when the games are big, and a baseball-like lack of emotion when the team isn?t giving its all. Proper preparation and looking at the big picture will yield many high percentage opportunities.

However, it can be hard to spot those opportunities if you are simply looking at the schedule while doing your day-to-day handicapping. I tend to separate the analysis of current form and scheduling this way. When I did it many years ago, I saw immediate results.

Every handicapper has their own way of examining shots on goal and power plays, two very key statistics in studying hockey. To get away from just looking at it like the public, I just keep track of the number of shots and power play attempts in a game, both offensively and defensively.

I think of these as a further extension of the concept of ?effort? instead of being swayed by a team scoring on a high percentage of shots or power plays in one isolated game. Prior to a game, I take the averages for each team and come up with an expected number. Then, with the ?effort? number I come up with on the schedule, I adjust these numbers by up to 50 percent in extreme cases.

If you know which team is likely to have more power play attempts and shots on goal, you should have a good idea of which team is putting itself in better shape to get the win.

After the game, I compare the actual stats against my expected numbers. It?s here that I can figure out if a team truly lived up to my expectations. I can then make minor adjustments accordingly.

I find the use of ?effort? numbers tied to shots and power play attempts to work nicely with my other methods. If I find a team that is getting a decent contribution from the secondary players - and I expect that team to outshoot its opponents and get more power play attempts - I have the makings for a nice value bet.

I will wrap up the rest of my thoughts on how to make hockey selections in my final installment.

 

[moleman]

well..where is part 4 :142slap:

 

[Nick Douglas]

They haven't posted it at a competing site yet. Personally, I don't have a problem with it being posted b/c I think it is a good article.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

will wrap up this four-part series by going through the final steps I use to put together my bets for the day. These last steps often separate the good handicappers from the bad.
A team the bettor thinks will make a good effort can often go in two directions. A team that focuses on its defensive effort is tough to beat, with a play on the 'under' a definite possibility.

A team that is focused could instead look to create chances and breakouts, which make the games a bit more unpredictable. But they often lead to goals both ways and lend themselves to being an 'over' play.

To help make a guess at which focus is more likely, I created the "ABC method". I list (in order) average total goals for each team. The top 10 are graded "A", the bottom 10 are graded "C" and the middle are "B" teams.

If two "A" teams are playing, I look to bet the ?over? or pass. If it?s two "C" teams, I focus on the ?under? or pass. As for picking sides, if I project an "A" team to give a good effort and have favorable shots-on-goal and power play edges, then I don't mind laying the half-goal. The offensive minded effort makes a tie game less likely and gives the chance for a big win.

A team that I have graded "C" is one I like to back when getting a half-goal because a likely defensive effort makes for a closer game. Therefore, I like the chances to at least get a tie.

I often stay cautious with ?B? teams, even when I see them with better statistics. I might look at their opponent to dictate if they are even playable. Teams that could go either way are a lot of trouble in hockey. They often play to the situation of the game, which may not favor your bet.

So definitely focus on those "A" and "C" teams and only bet "B" teams when the edges look big and the teams are not a big favorite.

The light betting action on the NHL is good for the real handicappers out there and really favors those doing this work. Prices don't get moved on air as much as other sports. The sports books aren't jostling to avoid getting hit multiple times because the syndicates generally don't play the sport.

Most sports books tend to simply set a generic line and adjust as they get hit. It?s good because the handicapper can shop and get a good number on almost any game.

In NBA games, the bettor often gets stuck with maybe a half-point differential throughout a whole list of books. In hockey, it?s not uncommon to see a 15-cent differential at different books on many games. Outright scalps aren't that common and ?steam? plays are rare.

In addition, I find it almost useless to keep power ratings. The lines are set precisely (with a little shading) or they are based on streaks. But otherwise, it?s just not worth the effort to construct a line looking for value.

I find it more valuable to look for reasons why a game should deviate from power ratings, not why the line is off a bit.

With practice, you will eventually enjoy betting hockey as much as I do. It takes a strong stomach to do it. But the favorable prices and the discipline to stick to wagers where you see a solid effort out of a team should make for a winning season.

Don't be misled by a short-term run in either direction. This is something that certainly frustrates most sports bettors who don't come prepared with a bankroll and the patience to let their edges play out.

Good luck to everyone this season.