NHL Friday the 13.

[MrJaxx]

YTD: 3-5
Total units staked: 12
Total units won: 11.89
Total: -0.11 units

Last night was a bit crazy.. Leafs gave away a 3 goal lead and lost on so, Blues won, but I made the error of playing them reg time

My first bet of the day is on the red hot Sabres.

Red Wings have started the season with 2 wins and a loss. They had a blow out win with 9-2 against Coyotes in their last match, and in all matches they have allowed few shots with just 17(!) in average. In the two first games they just scored 4 goals, but of course a 9-2 win helps their goals scored average. Hasek has just let in 5 goals in the first 3 matches, but with so few shots his SV% is at just 90. PP is at 13% so far, while PK is good with 85%.

Sabres have won all 3 games so far, two of them after so. Last game they beat Senators 4-3 on the road. Sabres have scored 3 or more goals in all matches so far and they have averaged over 30 shots pr game. But they have also allowed 32 shots against. Ryan Miller has let in 6 goals in 2 matches and have a SV% at 90. In special teams they have struggled scoring with only 5%, but have a decent PK at 86%.

The odds for Sabres in this match is at +138, and that is a little bit to high. Red Wings have not met the best teams so far. They lost two Nucks, while neither Coyotes or Pens are among the best. Sabres is of course bound to loose sometime soon, but they should have more than 42% chance of winning against Red Wings.

Bet Sabres ml (ot inc) +138 1 unit at Pinnacle

 

[MrJaxx]

I don't see any reasons not to keep playing on Thrashers, especially when they are up against struggling Canes.

Thrashers have won 3 and lost 1 after SO so far, they have scored goals (3.25 pr game) even tho they have struggled shooting more than 23 shots in average. Lehtonen have been brilliant stopping 97% of shots and only letting inn 3 goals. PP have been decent with 22% and PK more than decent with 92%

Canes are struggling, and struggling bad. They cant seem to score (1.75 goals pr game), they let in way to many goals (4.25 goals pr game), they only score on 11% of PP and have stopped 84% of PK. Cam Ward probably gets the start to day and he has not been anything like he was during the playoff so far. He has just stopped 88% of shots and has let in 11 goals in 3 matches.

Last season these teams met 8 times. They split the wins with 4 each. The way Canes have played so far I do not hesitate to bet against them, and not at all when they meet a team who have played more than decent. Thrashers should have about 50% chance of winning this in regulation, and when the odds is +122 then I bet 2 units.

Bet: Thrashers -0.5 (reg time) +122 2 units at Pinnacle

 

[MrJaxx]

Bolts looks to be struggling badly, the only win of the season came against Thrashers after so. After that they lost to Bruins and then to Thrashers. They have had huge problems scoring goals, and certainly not scoring in PP. Only 1 goal in 19 PP, while they in PK have stopped 85%. In goal Denis has stopped 89%. On the bright side, they have not allowed many shots, only 18 in average.

Panthers have started the season with 2 wins and 2 losses. They score and shoot decent (29 shots/3.75 goals game), but they have allowed to many shots (38) and a few to many goals (3.25). In special teams they have scored on 35% of PP, while stopping 86% in PK. Auld in goal has been more than decent and he has stopped almost 94% of shots so far.

Last season Panthers won 6 of 8 games against Thrashers (2 wins in OT), and at home they won all 4 matches (1 in OT).

Panterhs score the goals they need, they have a goalie that is in good shape and they score a lot in PP. Bolts struggle with scoring so it doesn't help to much that they don't allow shots. The odds on Panthers is -124, and that is a little bit to high, so my money will be on them.

Bet: Panthers ml (ot inc) -124 1 unit at Pinnacle.