San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Play Over 42
Comment:
Pros:
Whenever you have a game in which the two last ranked defenses in points allowed are up against each other, you automatically think a very high over under and a high scoring game. However, line makers are electing to leave the total right around the upper middle class. Are they trying to tell you something? Or are they missing something?
The Rams offense went into a mini slump when Fitzpatrick took over. Although in the three games he started the Rams proved capable of moving the ball, Fitzpatrick?s inability to consistently read opposing defenses made the Rams offense become a turnover machine. The Rams elected to put Martin in the second half of the game against the Eagles last week, which resulted in a much more efficient offense. Expect the Rams to parlay that decision by electing to start Martin at quarterback tomorrow. No matter who is at quarterback, the Rams offensive design and speed their receivers posses should simply overmatch the Niners anemic and injured secondary. Since Martz left the team, the Rams elected to utilize a much more conservative game plan that is more devoted to the run. However, this game plan has not panned out well for the Rams in their last three home games, and their fans are starting to get upset. Tomorrow will be a perfect opportunity for the Rams to open up their high octane offense once again, and become the pass first offense that has made over bettors wealthy in the past. The Niners are expected to put forth three first year starters on the field at cornerback tomorrow to cover the three fast and electric receivers the Rams have. Add to the mix a first year starting safety the Niners will have on the field, and the Rams passing offense looks to have a huge mismatch. The Niners lack of experience in the secondary will force them to play cushion zone coverage, allowing the small quick Rams receivers to find open seams and run after the catch. The Niners will also more than likely be forced to keep 7 men back in coverage, allowing Martin or Fitzpatrick ample time to hit his receivers. The focus the Niners will have on stopping the pass will open things up for Jackson and Faulk in the running game. Aside from last week, the Niners have had problems stopping the run on the road. The Rams running game really looked good last week, but was not helped by the constant turnovers in their passing game. The bottom line is that I am expecting the Rams to go back to their old game plan of using the pass to set up the run. There are too many mismatches in the secondary to make me think the Rams won?t score a lot of points.
This is also a perfect opportunity for the Niners offense to finally get something going. If you go and look at the Niners schedule, you would see the Niners have only faced two defenses the entire season that you considered below average. In those games, the Niners scored 23 and 28 points respectively. Expect Smith to finally be able to face a defense that has several holes that he can exploit. Expect the Niners to get Lloyd back in the lineup tomorrow. He will come in handy, as the Rams are expect to load the box and force the Niners to beat them with their rookie quarterbacks arm. This will allow both Mortin and Lloyd to get a lot of one on one opportunities downfield. Even with a stacked box, the Rams are still one of the worst teams in defending the run. Their front seven is undersized and do a poor job at filling their gaps. They are also the worst tackling team in football. This does not bode well for them, as both Gore and Barlow have actually shown an impressive display of breaking arm tackles, and turning short runs into big plays. Expect this combination to do a good job keeping the Rams defense honest and off balanced. The Niners offense has struggled mostly because of their poor play by their offensive line. They are up against a poor pass rush tomorrow, which should finally allow Smith to have ample time to find his reads. The bottom line is to expect to see some glimpse of potential out of the Niners offense. They have been plagued against having to face a series of good defenses. Look for them to find the end zone in this game, in much similar fashion to opening day where they put up 28 against the same Rams team.
Cons:
It?s hard to bet an over in a game that consists of two offenses that have really struggled recently. Smith is clearly not starter material, and his offensive line is not helping matters. If the Niners want to move the ball, they will be forced to get most of the yards on the ground, and as we all know, ground yards eat up clock. Although Martin should be much more efficient than Fitzpatrick, he too is not starter material. The Niners defense might be coming of their best performance of the season, and also get the Young back in the lineup to provide emotional and fundamental help.
Conclusion:
This game consists of the two worst defenses in the NFC. Yet line makers aren?t acting like it. Expect both struggling offenses to get an opportunity to open things up. A more aggressive game plan will lead to quick scores, quick three and outs, and potential turnovers- all variables favoring the over. In my opinion, these defenses aren?t good enough to keep this one under 42. I am on the over here.
Play Over 42
Comment:
Pros:
Whenever you have a game in which the two last ranked defenses in points allowed are up against each other, you automatically think a very high over under and a high scoring game. However, line makers are electing to leave the total right around the upper middle class. Are they trying to tell you something? Or are they missing something?
The Rams offense went into a mini slump when Fitzpatrick took over. Although in the three games he started the Rams proved capable of moving the ball, Fitzpatrick?s inability to consistently read opposing defenses made the Rams offense become a turnover machine. The Rams elected to put Martin in the second half of the game against the Eagles last week, which resulted in a much more efficient offense. Expect the Rams to parlay that decision by electing to start Martin at quarterback tomorrow. No matter who is at quarterback, the Rams offensive design and speed their receivers posses should simply overmatch the Niners anemic and injured secondary. Since Martz left the team, the Rams elected to utilize a much more conservative game plan that is more devoted to the run. However, this game plan has not panned out well for the Rams in their last three home games, and their fans are starting to get upset. Tomorrow will be a perfect opportunity for the Rams to open up their high octane offense once again, and become the pass first offense that has made over bettors wealthy in the past. The Niners are expected to put forth three first year starters on the field at cornerback tomorrow to cover the three fast and electric receivers the Rams have. Add to the mix a first year starting safety the Niners will have on the field, and the Rams passing offense looks to have a huge mismatch. The Niners lack of experience in the secondary will force them to play cushion zone coverage, allowing the small quick Rams receivers to find open seams and run after the catch. The Niners will also more than likely be forced to keep 7 men back in coverage, allowing Martin or Fitzpatrick ample time to hit his receivers. The focus the Niners will have on stopping the pass will open things up for Jackson and Faulk in the running game. Aside from last week, the Niners have had problems stopping the run on the road. The Rams running game really looked good last week, but was not helped by the constant turnovers in their passing game. The bottom line is that I am expecting the Rams to go back to their old game plan of using the pass to set up the run. There are too many mismatches in the secondary to make me think the Rams won?t score a lot of points.
This is also a perfect opportunity for the Niners offense to finally get something going. If you go and look at the Niners schedule, you would see the Niners have only faced two defenses the entire season that you considered below average. In those games, the Niners scored 23 and 28 points respectively. Expect Smith to finally be able to face a defense that has several holes that he can exploit. Expect the Niners to get Lloyd back in the lineup tomorrow. He will come in handy, as the Rams are expect to load the box and force the Niners to beat them with their rookie quarterbacks arm. This will allow both Mortin and Lloyd to get a lot of one on one opportunities downfield. Even with a stacked box, the Rams are still one of the worst teams in defending the run. Their front seven is undersized and do a poor job at filling their gaps. They are also the worst tackling team in football. This does not bode well for them, as both Gore and Barlow have actually shown an impressive display of breaking arm tackles, and turning short runs into big plays. Expect this combination to do a good job keeping the Rams defense honest and off balanced. The Niners offense has struggled mostly because of their poor play by their offensive line. They are up against a poor pass rush tomorrow, which should finally allow Smith to have ample time to find his reads. The bottom line is to expect to see some glimpse of potential out of the Niners offense. They have been plagued against having to face a series of good defenses. Look for them to find the end zone in this game, in much similar fashion to opening day where they put up 28 against the same Rams team.
Cons:
It?s hard to bet an over in a game that consists of two offenses that have really struggled recently. Smith is clearly not starter material, and his offensive line is not helping matters. If the Niners want to move the ball, they will be forced to get most of the yards on the ground, and as we all know, ground yards eat up clock. Although Martin should be much more efficient than Fitzpatrick, he too is not starter material. The Niners defense might be coming of their best performance of the season, and also get the Young back in the lineup to provide emotional and fundamental help.
Conclusion:
This game consists of the two worst defenses in the NFC. Yet line makers aren?t acting like it. Expect both struggling offenses to get an opportunity to open things up. A more aggressive game plan will lead to quick scores, quick three and outs, and potential turnovers- all variables favoring the over. In my opinion, these defenses aren?t good enough to keep this one under 42. I am on the over here.
