Nolan Nolan Unders Middle?

[djv]

Wow got on those unders.
Buff 42 Now 38 Middle maybe need to watch the weather.
Cleve 38 now 34 Same thing.
GB 40.5 now 38.5 not such a good idea as above.
Sat on the Cinn over was 39.5 now 38. Weather there will not be to bad.
Philly still expecting winds in the 20 to 25 range gusting at 30.
Number still 39 cant believe it has not dropped. Wind swirles at Philly as many here know.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I agree that we should consider this, DJV.

When I put in the money on Wed. night, I considered the possibility that this might come up. It's very rare we get 3-4 point middles, and I now have to ask myself -- at what point does the middle become a viable proposition? My thinking is that if we can capture (win) on 38, 39, 40, 41 and get the push on 42, that gives us about a 12-15 percent chance of the middle. It's lesser on the other games where we get middles of 1-2 points, but across some key numbers. I think what I might do is to go for the hedge in the 2H of several of these plays. If we get very low scores in the 1H, the halftime numbers will come out around 15-17 and we can go OVER (for at least a percentage). Of course, this will be a case by case basis.

One point that needs to be made is -- if we have an UNDER (for reasons other than the weather -- see write-ups where I like the UNDER no matter what), I don't know why we would waste cash betting the OVER. I agree with hedging (2H) but I won't middle unless I can get a lot of points in between the two tickets. In retrospect, I wish I had bet the totals for a much higher amount (I only put down $220 on each).....that might lead me to middle with a peice of the action. Everyone's BR situation and tolerance for risk is different, so I can't really advise anyone WHERE the point comes when it's wise to middle or hedge. I suppose mathematically, it's wise to do this on each bet, since the EV of the act likely exceeds 5 percent (i.e. risking -10 to win 200).

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[djv]

I like you was considering unders in the Buff and cleve games for other reason then just weather. But with 4 point drop on both I must look at those two very hard for possiable middle. At least Miami/Buff where there seems to be enough upside to get the middle. Cleve looks so stong as under I may just ride it. Thks for input and the update on percentages. Like the H-time idea also.