Last year, during college hoops season, I asked this question to a respected handicapper...thought you might be interested in his reply.
In one of your excellent essays you said, " I will rarely bet a game that has moved a point or more towards the side I like. The value is gone from that side, and the house beats the player more often than not." Does this apply to both basketball and football or one sport more than another? Thanks Much, buddy
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IF we use 'rarely' as our grounds here, the answer is Yes -- I don't like to bet with a line move very often -- I'd much rather bet against it. But line moves are extremely different in hoops as opposed to football. There is much more public money involved in setting a football line, whereas hoops liines are set to beat professionals almost exclusively -- kind of like lines for the Big West or MAC conferences in football. Also, there's much more buy-back action in hoops as pro's search for middles that are easier to come by in hoops. In oither words, lines often move one way, then swing back the other way in a matter of hours. Since basketball lines exist for only a day, as opposed to football lines that exist for a week before the game is played, there's less of a chance to dissect the moves for what they are. Is it an individual pro who likes a side, or an across the board move by a syndicate, or just the public hopping onto a side in a publiic game in a big way --each type of move has a different feel to it, and a different strategy regarding betting with/against/ignoring the line movement.
This week has been a lousy one in terms of betting against the line moves in hoops, and these streaks will happen. But the concept of looking for value via betting against the line moves is one that should remain profitable in the long term for years to come.
In one of your excellent essays you said, " I will rarely bet a game that has moved a point or more towards the side I like. The value is gone from that side, and the house beats the player more often than not." Does this apply to both basketball and football or one sport more than another? Thanks Much, buddy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF we use 'rarely' as our grounds here, the answer is Yes -- I don't like to bet with a line move very often -- I'd much rather bet against it. But line moves are extremely different in hoops as opposed to football. There is much more public money involved in setting a football line, whereas hoops liines are set to beat professionals almost exclusively -- kind of like lines for the Big West or MAC conferences in football. Also, there's much more buy-back action in hoops as pro's search for middles that are easier to come by in hoops. In oither words, lines often move one way, then swing back the other way in a matter of hours. Since basketball lines exist for only a day, as opposed to football lines that exist for a week before the game is played, there's less of a chance to dissect the moves for what they are. Is it an individual pro who likes a side, or an across the board move by a syndicate, or just the public hopping onto a side in a publiic game in a big way --each type of move has a different feel to it, and a different strategy regarding betting with/against/ignoring the line movement.
This week has been a lousy one in terms of betting against the line moves in hoops, and these streaks will happen. But the concept of looking for value via betting against the line moves is one that should remain profitable in the long term for years to come.
