Unfortunately, hospital looms this arvo so this will be short - but I'm hoping the fruits of the labour will be succulent
Also, as predicted, not as many plays this weekend - trying to be more selective and focus on really strong winning chances to improve the percentage and profitability. Well, onto the write-ups..
NRL:
Season to date - 18-17 (51.43%)
Fri nite (DU):
Parramatta Eels (-6.5) v The Bulldogs: The Eels gave us a nice cover over the Dragons last weekend while the Bulldogs suffered another second-half setback to scrape in 16-14 (but failing to cover) after leading 16-14 v the Tigers. The Bulldogs have struggled in recent weeks, going 0-4 ATS. The Eels are still seeking greater consistency but are the only side likely to match the Broncos in their consistent efforts defensively. With the addition of David Vaealiki to the starting line-up, I believe they have enough offensive weapons to cover at home tonight.
PLAY EELS -6.5
Sun (DU):
Melbourne Storm (pick 'em) v Sydney Roosters: The Roosters did well to win a titanic battle to beat the Broncos last weekend to confirm them as definite title contenders. But they, like the Eels, have yet to display consistency - witness them becoming one of Penrith's two victims a fortnight ago. The Storm continued their brief resurgence under new coach Mark Murray by scoring 40 points in the second half to demolish the Eagles 52-18. They are now a different side at Colonial Stadium (2-4 SU) from the rabble at the start of the season and this will be another opportunity to show the home fans that the '99 champions aren't a spent force. With the Roosters without playmaker Brad Fittler for 2 weeks (suspended), the Storm are in a great spot under the emerging talent of Matt Orford to push for a second consecutive home victory. As a pick 'em, definite value.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM pick 'em.
Nth Qld Cowboys (pick 'em) v Northern Eagles: Yeah, it seems I play against the Eagles every weekend, but I'm going to do so again. From memory, we've gone 2-1 ATS in the last 3 rds doing so. And while it seems strange that I'm backing the Cowboys after rating them a poor side for most of the year; we're doing so again on value. The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS and covered late away v the Raiders last weekend in an impressive effort marred by a slack 20-min period after the break. The week before the held the Eels to a 14-14 draw in Cairns. The Eagles continue to go from bad to worse after the Storm debacle, and it's unlikely team morale would have risen with the dropping of Steve Menzies for the first time in his NRL first-grade career. They have concede a whopping 286 pts in nine games (a staggering 31.77 per game; only Penrith are worse at 33.89) and while the Cowboys aren't a strong offensive side, the sapping heat in Cairns will likely play havoc with the already shoddy Eagles defence.
PLAY COWBOYS pick 'em
SUPER 12:
Season to date - 17-9 (65.38%)
Sun (DU): Queensland Reds -3.5 v The Sharks: Very hard to go against the impressive, methodical 7-1 ATS Sharks - but I will. While the Reds are virtually out of semfinal reckoning, they have compiled a 5-2 ATS record which attracts the punters, and Ithink the bookmakers have noted that by making them a small home chalk. Difficult to beat at Ballymore, the Reds will be desperate for all 5 pts on offer while the Sharks virtually clinched a top 4 place by beating the Chiefs last weekend. Some indication of their mindset may be the decision to rest lineout star and pack leader Mark Andrews and huge prop Ollie le Roux. The South African sides have an awful record in Australia and the Sharks may be content with two victories they probably didn't count on in NZ. Apart from John Eales who is apparently one match away from a return, the Reds are at full strength and worth a punt. I would however recommend waiting until as late as possibel to wager on this as you may get an even better line - say -2.5 - with some late money on the Sharks. Still, I'm happy enough at what's there at present to recommend a play.
PLAY REDS -3.5
Canterbury Crusaders (-3.5) v Cats: The Crusaders put their three-times crown on the line in Nelson. 3-4 ATS, the home team need maximum points from all their remaining matches. The Cats, 2-6 ATS, won in Auckland but failed to cover - however, they were delighted with their first win on NZ soil. They should be confident for this encounter against a Crusaders team returning from a hammering in SA by the Stomers, but they seem to lack the basic skills and backline cohesion to pull away from any team (hence their ATS record). The Crusaders know they need four tries and a victory and should get this small number as a cover.
PLAY CRUSADERS -3.5
Hope to be able to follow at least some of these games when I recover and keep you in touch with how we progress.
For those of you in the Northern Hemisphere (Rusty, 1837, Bono, Reds etc; the Eels match should start approx 5.35am Fri EST - I think.
GLTA
Also, as predicted, not as many plays this weekend - trying to be more selective and focus on really strong winning chances to improve the percentage and profitability. Well, onto the write-ups..
NRL:
Season to date - 18-17 (51.43%)
Fri nite (DU):
Parramatta Eels (-6.5) v The Bulldogs: The Eels gave us a nice cover over the Dragons last weekend while the Bulldogs suffered another second-half setback to scrape in 16-14 (but failing to cover) after leading 16-14 v the Tigers. The Bulldogs have struggled in recent weeks, going 0-4 ATS. The Eels are still seeking greater consistency but are the only side likely to match the Broncos in their consistent efforts defensively. With the addition of David Vaealiki to the starting line-up, I believe they have enough offensive weapons to cover at home tonight.
PLAY EELS -6.5
Sun (DU):
Melbourne Storm (pick 'em) v Sydney Roosters: The Roosters did well to win a titanic battle to beat the Broncos last weekend to confirm them as definite title contenders. But they, like the Eels, have yet to display consistency - witness them becoming one of Penrith's two victims a fortnight ago. The Storm continued their brief resurgence under new coach Mark Murray by scoring 40 points in the second half to demolish the Eagles 52-18. They are now a different side at Colonial Stadium (2-4 SU) from the rabble at the start of the season and this will be another opportunity to show the home fans that the '99 champions aren't a spent force. With the Roosters without playmaker Brad Fittler for 2 weeks (suspended), the Storm are in a great spot under the emerging talent of Matt Orford to push for a second consecutive home victory. As a pick 'em, definite value.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM pick 'em.
Nth Qld Cowboys (pick 'em) v Northern Eagles: Yeah, it seems I play against the Eagles every weekend, but I'm going to do so again. From memory, we've gone 2-1 ATS in the last 3 rds doing so. And while it seems strange that I'm backing the Cowboys after rating them a poor side for most of the year; we're doing so again on value. The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS and covered late away v the Raiders last weekend in an impressive effort marred by a slack 20-min period after the break. The week before the held the Eels to a 14-14 draw in Cairns. The Eagles continue to go from bad to worse after the Storm debacle, and it's unlikely team morale would have risen with the dropping of Steve Menzies for the first time in his NRL first-grade career. They have concede a whopping 286 pts in nine games (a staggering 31.77 per game; only Penrith are worse at 33.89) and while the Cowboys aren't a strong offensive side, the sapping heat in Cairns will likely play havoc with the already shoddy Eagles defence.
PLAY COWBOYS pick 'em
SUPER 12:
Season to date - 17-9 (65.38%)
Sun (DU): Queensland Reds -3.5 v The Sharks: Very hard to go against the impressive, methodical 7-1 ATS Sharks - but I will. While the Reds are virtually out of semfinal reckoning, they have compiled a 5-2 ATS record which attracts the punters, and Ithink the bookmakers have noted that by making them a small home chalk. Difficult to beat at Ballymore, the Reds will be desperate for all 5 pts on offer while the Sharks virtually clinched a top 4 place by beating the Chiefs last weekend. Some indication of their mindset may be the decision to rest lineout star and pack leader Mark Andrews and huge prop Ollie le Roux. The South African sides have an awful record in Australia and the Sharks may be content with two victories they probably didn't count on in NZ. Apart from John Eales who is apparently one match away from a return, the Reds are at full strength and worth a punt. I would however recommend waiting until as late as possibel to wager on this as you may get an even better line - say -2.5 - with some late money on the Sharks. Still, I'm happy enough at what's there at present to recommend a play.
PLAY REDS -3.5
Canterbury Crusaders (-3.5) v Cats: The Crusaders put their three-times crown on the line in Nelson. 3-4 ATS, the home team need maximum points from all their remaining matches. The Cats, 2-6 ATS, won in Auckland but failed to cover - however, they were delighted with their first win on NZ soil. They should be confident for this encounter against a Crusaders team returning from a hammering in SA by the Stomers, but they seem to lack the basic skills and backline cohesion to pull away from any team (hence their ATS record). The Crusaders know they need four tries and a victory and should get this small number as a cover.
PLAY CRUSADERS -3.5
Hope to be able to follow at least some of these games when I recover and keep you in touch with how we progress.
For those of you in the Northern Hemisphere (Rusty, 1837, Bono, Reds etc; the Eels match should start approx 5.35am Fri EST - I think.
GLTA
