NEW ENGLAND / DENVER OVER
These two teams have played a combined 5 OVERS and 11 UNDERS through eight weeks. Furthermore, the Broncos are down to their third (or is it fourth) string quarterback. For that reason, the total has dipped to an all-time low for a Broncos home game -- at "36."
It's easy to understand why this number has dropped beyond what would nprobably be a total up around the 43 to 45 range.
I'll decline listing the reasons for the UNDER because they are so obvious.
But for many reasons, I'm playing the OVER. Here are the reasons why:
1. The Broncos are 5-3 SU and are a winning team. Sharp's comments to the media this week indicate an entirely new focus on tonight's game. Although the Broncos have struggled since QB Plummer's injury, I expect this re-focus to motivate the Broncos offense to produce points this week.
2. QB Kannell is starting for the Broncos. I think the bad performance last week at Baltimore actually helps him this week as it's always tough to make a first start on the road. Now, Kannell will have the comfortable confines of Mile High Stadium and, better yet, will have a very motivates cast on the offense to support his efforts. The Broncos offense line remains intact and healthy for the most part, which give Kannell some options.
3. Denver can still run the ball. They are the NFL's third ranked running game. If Denver can run, that probably means some passing opportunities will open up, no matter who the WRs are. It's been reported that WR McCaffery will see action. Sharp is ailing but should also play. I don't trust Shannahan's injury reports. This could be a trap to get the opponent to think the Broncos are more banged up than they really are. Sure, there are some injuries, but Denver is very much a SYSTEM team, which wins or losses based on the system of the head coach (and OC).
4. New England is on a roll, but has shown some vulnerability on defense, especially with several injuries. They've faced a slew of one-dimensional offenses this season. I'm not conviced this defense will play as well as they have against the likes of Cleveland and Miami the last two weeks.
5. Denver's defense is full of injuries (LB Mobley is out). That's a huge loss for the Broncos. Denver has surrendered an average of 24 points in its last four games to some lethargic offenses. I expect Patriots will have some offensive success.
6. Even with all the UNDERs these teams have played in 2003, the average mean score for both teams combined in all games is 38. This means this total is TWO POINTS below the average. Best of all, that means we pick up the key number of 37 and get a push on another significant number, which is 36. We pick up the push on prospective scores such as 20-16, 23-13, 27-9, 30-6 and wins on common scores such as 21-16, 20-17, 23-14, 24-13, 27-10, 30-7, and 31-6.
7. Five of the last six games between these two teams have gone OVER. In the precceding eight games between these two teams (since 1995), 40 points or higher have been scored in every game.
8. Normally, the kicking game wouldn't be much of a factor. But these two teams have two of the best FG kickers in the NFL. This might not seem important, but when any kick inside the 50 is almost automatic, that means each team is probably worth +3 extra points in every game it plays.
9. Monday Night Football normally brings out some odd plays (kick returns, etc.) and creates more intensity to perform. If this game was played in NWE, I'd probably pass on the total. But the home game in Denver is likley to help the Broncos (who are the main concern so far as scoring goes).
I think we have value, history, and contrarianism on our side. The play is OVER 36.
-- Nolan Dalla
These two teams have played a combined 5 OVERS and 11 UNDERS through eight weeks. Furthermore, the Broncos are down to their third (or is it fourth) string quarterback. For that reason, the total has dipped to an all-time low for a Broncos home game -- at "36."
It's easy to understand why this number has dropped beyond what would nprobably be a total up around the 43 to 45 range.
I'll decline listing the reasons for the UNDER because they are so obvious.
But for many reasons, I'm playing the OVER. Here are the reasons why:
1. The Broncos are 5-3 SU and are a winning team. Sharp's comments to the media this week indicate an entirely new focus on tonight's game. Although the Broncos have struggled since QB Plummer's injury, I expect this re-focus to motivate the Broncos offense to produce points this week.
2. QB Kannell is starting for the Broncos. I think the bad performance last week at Baltimore actually helps him this week as it's always tough to make a first start on the road. Now, Kannell will have the comfortable confines of Mile High Stadium and, better yet, will have a very motivates cast on the offense to support his efforts. The Broncos offense line remains intact and healthy for the most part, which give Kannell some options.
3. Denver can still run the ball. They are the NFL's third ranked running game. If Denver can run, that probably means some passing opportunities will open up, no matter who the WRs are. It's been reported that WR McCaffery will see action. Sharp is ailing but should also play. I don't trust Shannahan's injury reports. This could be a trap to get the opponent to think the Broncos are more banged up than they really are. Sure, there are some injuries, but Denver is very much a SYSTEM team, which wins or losses based on the system of the head coach (and OC).
4. New England is on a roll, but has shown some vulnerability on defense, especially with several injuries. They've faced a slew of one-dimensional offenses this season. I'm not conviced this defense will play as well as they have against the likes of Cleveland and Miami the last two weeks.
5. Denver's defense is full of injuries (LB Mobley is out). That's a huge loss for the Broncos. Denver has surrendered an average of 24 points in its last four games to some lethargic offenses. I expect Patriots will have some offensive success.
6. Even with all the UNDERs these teams have played in 2003, the average mean score for both teams combined in all games is 38. This means this total is TWO POINTS below the average. Best of all, that means we pick up the key number of 37 and get a push on another significant number, which is 36. We pick up the push on prospective scores such as 20-16, 23-13, 27-9, 30-6 and wins on common scores such as 21-16, 20-17, 23-14, 24-13, 27-10, 30-7, and 31-6.
7. Five of the last six games between these two teams have gone OVER. In the precceding eight games between these two teams (since 1995), 40 points or higher have been scored in every game.
8. Normally, the kicking game wouldn't be much of a factor. But these two teams have two of the best FG kickers in the NFL. This might not seem important, but when any kick inside the 50 is almost automatic, that means each team is probably worth +3 extra points in every game it plays.
9. Monday Night Football normally brings out some odd plays (kick returns, etc.) and creates more intensity to perform. If this game was played in NWE, I'd probably pass on the total. But the home game in Denver is likley to help the Broncos (who are the main concern so far as scoring goes).
I think we have value, history, and contrarianism on our side. The play is OVER 36.
-- Nolan Dalla
