NYM - Great Play at Short Chalk - Here's Why

[Never Caught Up]

NYM -105

Tonight the Mets play their first game at home since WTC. Each player has donated their paycheck today to the WTC victims totaling nearly half a million dollars. Emotions for this game will be incredible.

Add to that the following stats . . .

Atlanta is 1-8 at night and 2-9 on grass behind Jason Marquis this season. The NY Mets are 6-0 at night and 6-1 on grass behind Bruce Chen this year.

If this game loses it is going to cost my ass because I think this is one of the best values I've seen in a long time.

 

[RobertBIrish]

I totally agree with you NCU we will go down in flames together if the Mets lose! By the way I know it is a very long shot but I bet the Mets to win the National League at 3000-1 at Wagerstreet very unlikely it will happen but I really think they have extra motivation and they are playing like it!

 

[wondo]

.

 

[cisco]

Excellent analysis wondo. I think i'll just watch the game tonight. The Mets players are to be commended for thier contribution to the WTC victims. This should be a must see game for everyone. Shea will be shakin' tonight.

 

[superbook]

No question this will be a very emotional game. I believe a very large crowd will show up tonight at Shea to root for the Mets.

In addition to the first game back in NY since the WTC attack, the NYM-ATL rivalry is always big. And the NY press believes the Mets are still very much still in it.

Chen is a former Brave, Marquis grew up on Staten Island and his sister works at the NYSE.

Mets have won last 20 of 25, they may be playing over their heads, but they are winning and getting some runs.

With all the emotion at Shea tonight, I like the Over 8.5. Especially since I don't think Chen is very good and Marquis will give up a couple of long balls to Piazza and company.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Personally, I think the OVER is the better play here. Chen's stats vs the Braves are scary

GL

------------------
SEPT 11, 2001. THE DAY THAT WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

R.I.P. TO ALL VICTIMS
We are in this together

 

[wondo]

.

 

[superbook]

Mets have won Chen's last three starts and they have all gone way Over: 9-7, 10-7, 7-5.

Why? Because Chen sucks, even the Braves should get 5-6 off of him tonight. And the hyped-up Mets should go yard on Marquis a couple of times tonight for the local heroes in the stands.

The Mets need to sweep this series to get within 2.5 games, at a miniumum take 2 of 3 to stay alive. IMO, this is a must win game for the Mets with the Glavine-Leiter pitching duel set for tomorrow.

I see this as Over tonight, Under tomorrow. Bet the Mets in every game and you should win 2 of 3 at least.

 

[Never Caught Up]

Thanks guys. I always like to get other opinions because technical handicapping is not my strong suit. I think I will put some on the over. I bet the Mets last night at -105 on the overnight line most places anticipating it going up today. Most stores opened around -110 today and I think a lot of cappers must see the same thing you guys did because it is back down in the -105 to -107 area now.

I think the desire to win this game for the home crowd will prevail. I didn't bet any more than I normally put on a top play. If it loses it won't be the end of the world, but if it wins I will be a dime better off in my BR and a hundred times better off in my heart. A win in this game is just what the Big Apple needs tonight.

 

[Randercity]

My only problem with this game is the same thing as last nite's game vs WOLF of the PHILLIES. The BRAVES dominate LH pitching on the road. This is their strong suit, and facing a RH starter hurts the METS. ATL is +880 on the road vs LH starters while the METS are -15 at home vs RH starters, even though the METS are 40-32 overall at home. The BRAVES are 45-29 on the road, and I do think they realize they NEED to eliminate the METS as soon as possible as they will become AMERICA's TEAM due to this disaster. Emotion could very well carry the METS tonite, and I WOULD NOT bet against that. However, I feel the numbers line up for ATL with CHEN on the mound for NYM, so I may just pass and watch. The OVER may be the way to go, as this game will surely spark some HEROIC type games on offense I feel. CHEN will probably give up 4 or 5, and if the METS are gonna win, it will have to go OVER.

 

[pipeville]

Guys,
I am also a New Yorker but I can't see everybody jumping on the Mets. They haven't beaten up on poor teams like Pittsburgh and Florida during their hot streak (although Philly was mixed in there). I understand how much emotion will be flowing tonight in pre-game ceremonies, but once the game starts, it's all up to the pitcher. The emotion doesn't matter like in football or hockey where you can outhustle or smack into your opponents. You're only as good as you're starting pitcher and I believe Atlanta will hit Chen hard. The Braves are a seasoned veteran team who has excelled on the road. I think they don't won't to give the Mets a glimmer of hope, esp. with their ace Leiter on the mound tomorrow. I look for the Braves to come out flying as they attempt to derail the Mets season ? something they would love to do to their hated rival.
Just my opinion, but I don't think the Mets are the lock everyone believes they are.
Pipeville

 

[Never Caught Up]

Wow! Time out! Lock???????????

That word doesn't even exist in my vocabulary. My statement was "great play at short chalk". In retrospect I should have written "great value at short chalk". I considerr short chalk in baseball laying no more than -125.

-105 equates to just over 51% probability. Actually if you factor in vig it is 50%, but you would need to win just over 51% of these plays to break even. I think the Mets have at least a 56% chance of winning this game which would equate to a line of -127. That is a 21 cent underlay at -105. That in my opinion is great value.

I respect all the feedback, but still think the Mets have at least a 56% chance of winning this game because of the combined emotion and the stats I quoted earlier.

Atlanta is 1-8 at night and 2-9 on grass behind Jason Marquis this season. The NY Mets are 6-0 at night and 6-1 on grass behind Bruce Chen this year.

"Great value at short chalk" . . . not even close to a "l-l-l-l-ock". I can barely even type that word.

 

[phoenix566]

NCU, I'm with you on the Mets, and the words 'great value' here. This game is indeed far from a l**k, maybe pipeville is trying to put the 'jinx' on us...lol

We're getting a team on an incredible streak right now, at home at pick em. Is there a risk here going against the dreaded rival bravos? SURE, but isn't their a risk in every bet we place? I think the Mets win this game 6 out of 10 times, therefore ther is indeed great value here?

Why does everyone feel so much more confidant with the Cards tonight? Also 9-1 L10 and on an incredible run. Does laying 2 to 1 give that much more a feeling of security to the play??

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Never Caught Up, you're right about the great value.

Other people have to ask themselves, who has MORE incentive to win in this series...??
The Braves got smoked in philly losing 3 of 4 and their offense went south. The mets are just about within sniffing range of first place...AND they're at home. The surprising thing about the Mets was their winning run recently on the road...and the METS were ALREADY a good home team before all this stuff happened....

I'd lean to the METS.

 

[RobertBIrish]

I know you guys will think I am nuts and believe me this is not the reason I played the game I have played sports and have been around the gambling industry for 26 years. Put yourself in the Braves spot I really think this might be in the back of their minds would you want to be the first team to beat the Mets in their first game at home I know they hate the Mets belive me but for christ's sake the Philadelphia fans in last's night hockey game cheered for Guilianii and Pataki last night and they hate New York, I know these guys are proffesional athletes and all that and I didn't bet more than I would on any other game that I liked allot but how crappy would you feel at beating the Mets on their return home after such a devastating event I just don't think the Braves will be on their A game tonight! I could very well be wrong and like I said this is not the reason I bet the game but just something to think about!

 

[Never Caught Up]

After watching the 30 plus minute opening ceremony of this game I feel even stronger about the Mets winning. What an emotional event this game is. For the benefit of all those fans who have poured into that stadium tonight I hope they can walk away with the thrill of victory. Robert, I don't think you are nuts. If I was a Braves player I would feel the same way.

 

[EMJ32]

Great Call!!!

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

What a way for the Mets to win with their big guy getting a home run.

NYC residents, that game was for you.


Congrats NCU, and to the victims, you all left as champions.

------------------
SEPT 11, 2001. THE DAY THAT WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

R.I.P. TO ALL VICTIMS
We are in this together

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

What a way for the Mets to win with their big guy getting a home run.

NYC residents, that game was for you.


Congrats NCU, and to the victims, you all left as champions.

------------------
SEPT 11, 2001. THE DAY THAT WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

R.I.P. TO ALL VICTIMS
We are in this together

 

[phoenix566]

yipeecayah!!!