Odds On Annika at Asahi

[Clive]

or...
Asahi Ryokuken International, Mount Vintage, S Carolina

Yep, Hills go 5/6 Annika for this one, mainly because all the main players are absent; Webb, Pak, Inkster, Diaz

A real skinner here last year when Fischer won, but can't see that happening again.
Had real problems with price sensitivity this week with both LPGA and Seniors, becoming increasingly difficult to go for prices that will still be there.

Only the second time here, and although there are plenty of trees, fairways are quite generous, but the course is very demanding and may find out some of the veterans.

Grace Park....incredibly consistent this year, which when you consider the difficulties she had off the tee last year is testament to her improvement..the 20/1 at Centrebet is a decent price

Kris Tschetter ...should have won here last year and I've had her pencilled in for this for some time. Took the 100/1 this morning, Stan James are 80/1

Kelli Kuehne - amazed to see Centrebet go 100/1 earlier, 66 now, but that's ok - thankfully Ian didn't nick the price this week

and to fully compensate for only one selection in Europe;

He Won Han - incredible form from last year's rookie of the year...been going on about the fact she won that from Monday qualifying..she migh tbe a little short off the tee, but the 50/1 Centrebet compensates...and it is still there.


DTB - Bowie 100 at Hills, which is another silly price

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will be putting some place cheese in the trap on her for sure brother Clive.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I could not agree more with your analysis this week Clive.
outrights to place @ SIA 1 unit each
He Won Han 8.25/1
Tschetter 16.5/1
Moodie 20/1
Bowie 25/1

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Grace Park to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet365
I knew the 25/1 on her last week wouldn't be available any more, but was surprised to get as high as 16/1 with 5 places (and 20/1 @ Centrebet with 4 places) with such a weak field. Can't pass it up. Last year's 33rd place finish was between two top-5 finishes, so there is not the argument of past weeks of ignoring course form, but she has finished in the top-5 in her last three tournaments and has finished in the top-10 in six of her eight starts this year. In this form, she can compete on virtually any course.

Mi Hyun Kim to win 22/1 e.w. @ Surrey
She may be tinkering with her swing, but she is still putting in some very consistent performances. Rather too many bogeys - may be a product of the swing changes - but she continues to be in contention at some stage every time she plays. She does have a top-20 finish from last year and this is not a course that needs length off the tee, so she should be again in contention at the weekend.

Cristie Kerr to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes [5 places option]
Kerr didn't play last year, but is another at the top of her game. She had had two top-3 finishes in four starts before she won her maiden title at the Longs Drugs Challenge and she now looks to be regaining that level again after the difficulties of coming to terms with that win ... and possibly that photograph as well! Just too good a player to be this price against any field.

 

[bettingmad]

No surprise that Annika is odds on... her stats at LPGA.com make very impressive reading. 1995 to 2001 she has 106 top 10's from 154 outings including 31 wins, 26 2nds & 15 3rds and she has contunied in the same vein this year.... apart from her 59th place when I backed her!!

Going for an across the card 'place' double at bet365 this week. Have to row in with the 16/1 5 places Grace Park after her recent 3-4-5-mc-9-3 finishes and pairing her with Senior Doug Tewell (12/1 4 places) for an 1/2 pt win on each but a whopping 2 pt each way double. 2 places returns 40 points... but not mentioning any big sticks this time.... the wins would also be nice at 220/1... greed is good

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Where is a rainstorm and tourney halt when you need one.

if this isn't kiss of death
http://sports.yahoo.com/pga/news/ap/20020518/ap-lpga-asahiryokuken.html

How bout Park 1st Moodie 2nd Tschetter,Kim,Han,Bowie,and Kerr tied for 3rd.

 

[Clive]

DTB
I am assuming you availed yourself of some of the 80/1 Moodie to win, and didn't just go for the place?! Please tell me you did!

She's off to a great start this morning.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I did NOT

 

[Clive]

oh dear....

Sure this is a cultural thing...place only betting is a recent development in betting in the UK. For more years than I care to remember each way betting has always been the done thing, and I wouldn't consider anything else.

The professional thing to do is to look at the Moodie bet as a positive...you bet her to place and she has...profit made. I'd much rather be in your position than mine...I had a shortlist of 8 for this event, bet on five of them, and of course Moodie was one of the ignored three!!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Clive I have always had bad attitude about forfeiting wagers before ball is struck.ie 4 e/w wagers is 8 bets with 3 forfeited,however have been watching you mates churn out positive revenue and may change my tune,especially if Moodie hangs on.That would make an 80/1 and Teske @ 40/1 earlier too much to take. But at my normal $10 wagers on outrights it does not make a lot of difference.It is just the chase of trying to beat the man for most part. I have cashed some nice wins coat tailing you all though.I am still in learning process but will apply for full fledged Bush Masters status if in the black at end of year.

 

[bettingmad]

DTB,
You have to compare like for like stakes. 4 each way bets equals 8 stakes, you had 4 place only bets so if you are comparing each way betting against place only count it as 2 stakes on each to place. Obviously this week should Moodie win the each way is better.... but if you compare all your bets this season which returns the most... each way or place only? Perhaps 1/2 point each way and 1 point place might be best....

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

You know Steve I really did some in depth research on this issue in the winter and could come to no conclusion if one way had advantage over other. The place is much more consevative approach but will not produce the big hits. It is an individual issue.
Where there is a dominate player present I do prefer for my own wager to have full unit place vs full unit total E/W because it cuts place return in half--but flip side as with Moodie--no risk no reward. I do know this I have watched the masters here for several years and I can't argue with success. As long as one throws in a few winners regardless of how they are wagered it makes for great entertainment. I will do tabs at conclusion of season to compare how it would have went had I went E/W and will add it in year ending report.

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 0-3; -4.50 units

Park 6th
Kim 10th
Kerr 20th

Just like the Seniors event this week ... hard to see how I can finish this event without a winner. Park had been in the top-5 all week until during her last round and Kim, in particular, had threatened to gain a place finish. Should take heart that the full top-5 in this event were all considered as they were in the top-10 of my ratings, but having looked at and passed over the 80/1 winner, it is very small comfort!

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 9-7; +7.67 units
Outrights: 5-21; +24.69 units


Whatever the merits of win-only, each-way or place-only, it's picking winners that counts and DTB's picking a lot of them on the LPGA Tour!! WTG!!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Finals
Outrights
Moodie 1st 20/1 place
Han 16th
Bowie 30th
Tschetter 51st
units week +17 ytd +42.5

Thanks Stan but lots of credit goes to you guys as I have coat tailed several

Very bad beat especially on Park.