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Clive

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Hard to believe there is really a town named after Tarzan...oh well!

The question this week is whether to take on the favs, esp Annika. My theory is that she has been preparinghard for Colonial and concentrated on long iron play rather than short irons and this may have cost her a couple of strokes per event, enough to turn her from invincible to merely great! Will pass her over at 13/8. Pak is a little more tempting at the 9/1 at Stan James, but deep religious convictions mean that I cannot back golfers at single figures in full field events.

Three for me this week;

Laura Diaz has been disappointing so far this year, but her 5th last week was a good sign, and she was the only player here last year to compete with Pak and Annika..33/1 Stan James

Sports Illustrated golf writer Alan Shipnuck recently waxed lyrical on just why the LPGA is the hottest tour on the planet at the moment, he remarked; "unlike the PGA Tour's best player, the LPGA's top gun faces fierce, fearless competition when leading on Sunday" - sentiments strongly echoed here. Amazingly, there are some who still seem to think that a 50/1 winner on the LPGA tour is somehow less worthy than a 50/1 winner on the PGA Tour! In the current climate of young, fearless big hitters, it's easy to overlook the claims of the more senior players...who would have thought that quotes of 40/1 Inkster and incredibly 100/1 Pepper would be available at this stage of the season? Whilst Inkster and Pepper have not been in their usual form this year, Beth Daniel has been quietly going about putting together a decent run of form , following up her 7th place first time out with a 5th place last week - an ok showing here last year gives us a chance of a weekend in contention...66/1 Stan James

Christina Kim finished 2nd behind Ochoa on Futures Tour last year, and spent the off-season touring LPGA venues...this one is fairly close to her home, so it's safe to suggest she visited here too...she already has a 4th place finish to her name and the 80/1 at Skybet is decent enough.

Of the others, Ochoa and Davies are obvious threats, and at larger prices I like Grace Park, Cristie Kerr and Catriona Matthew as savers...and a big one for the pot, Jennifer Rosales at 125/1
 

Stanley

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Outright plays (0.75 units):

Grace Park to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Large price for a player who finished 2nd and 4th in the first two events of the year. She did miss the cut in the 3rd one, but on the tough Missions Hills course it is very difficult to recover a poor start. Hopefully, she will be fresh from her rest at the weekend and can emulate Se Ri Pak who missed the cut in the 1st event this year only to win the 2nd. She had been 21st after the 1st round last year before withdrawing so at least she has course experience as well.

Cristie Kerr to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Very consistent this year with finishes of 9th, 11th and 13th. Not good enough to earn a place return, but very solid form anyway and certainly better than 66/1 would warrant. She did miss the cut last year and maybe this is reflected in the price, but she had a poor 1st round tee-time (Friday afternoon) last year and she has the reverse this year. She should avoid the rising winds in the afternoon around this course this year and be in contention yet again when the weekend begins.

Beth Daniel to finish in the top-four 15/1 @ Centrebet
Stan James also quote Daniel at 66/1, but will take the place-only option instead. She has played particularly well in her first two events of 2003 to finish 5th and 7th and she was a runner-up in one of the 2002 Majors (McDonald's LPGA Championship), but her last win was in 1995. She finished in the top-20 finish last year, but she enters this event in better form and hopefully will secure a better finish. It also helps that there have been some notable withdrawals this week.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Christina Kim to beat Beth Bauer +103 @ Five Dimes
Just don't understand this line. In each of the three LPGA Tour events this year, Kim has finished ahead of Bauer. There does not seem to be a significant edge in terms of course experience as Bauer finished a lowly 55th last year and Kim has been studying this course before this week.

Michele Redman to beat Maria Hjorth -118 @ Expekt
Both tied last year in the 20th place and both have had similar starts to the year, but just siding with Redman as she is the more consistent player and simply the better one.

Lorena Ochoa to beat Laura Davies -111 @ Centrebet
Ochoa was just too short at 14/1 for the outrights, but will take her in the matchups against Davies. Five Dimes have this match at -150 which looks more accurate. Davies is playing well at the moment, but Ochoa is simply the better player.
 

Stanley

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Final update:

Matchups: 2-1-0; +0.69 units

Kim/Bauer WON by 4 (at the cut)
Redman/Hjorth WON by 12 (at the cut)
Ochoa/Davies LOST by 10

Outrights: 0-3; -2.25 units

Park 25th
Kerr mc
Daniel 13th

Loss on the event as Ochoa's reversal on the final day meant that the matchups did not cover the outrights. Daniel had been on the fringes of a top-4 place all week, but was not there when it mattered. Still to get out of second gear on this Tour this season.

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 8-9; -2.08 units
Outrights: 1-11; -6.15 units
 
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