All I can say is that Arkansas played North Texas a few weeks ago laying 35 and won 66-7. The problem is when you are gaining 6-8 yards per carry it doesn't matter if you're a running team, you will score and score often. Another thing to factor in is that the coach is under fire from the fans and he won't be shy about running up the score (he threw a late touchdown pass last week at Ole Miss when the score was 37-8 late in the fourth quarter) and also ran it up against North Texas.
The other game, I like Penn State. Ohio State hasn't really beaten a quality opponent yet and I don't think they are really any better than Penn State, if so not by much and the home field should make up the difference. Penn State 19-1 straight up their last 20 home games and JoePa 5-1 ATS with revenge in his last 6. Ohio State QB has never seen an environment like he will see tomorrow night. I think they got the wrong team favored, I like Penn State +3.5 straight up over the Buckeyes.