Hi everyone,
Looking to keep things rolling - having an oustanding week in NFL & CFB - haven't lost a wager all week which translates into up a nice chunk.
On to NFL Sunday. I've had this game circled for a few weeks now. Everything has lined up as I have hoped it would. Miami and New England both come in at 6W-4L straight up, and 5W-5L against the spread. It is amazing how even these teams appear if you dig into the numbers:
Miami avg. 20.9 ppg, and gives up 19.7 ppg
New England avg. 21.9 ppg and gives up 19.4 ppg
Miami avg. 117.5 rush, 236.0 pass, 353.5 ypg
NE avg. 132.3 rush, 214.2 pass, 346.5 ypg
Both teams 4-2 record at home, 2-2 record away.
Now numbers only tell some of the tale - as past results are not always an indicatior of future results. The one game they have played though Miami won IN NEW ENGLAND 38-13 - this cannot be ignored. Wildcat formation or not, Miami had the answer for New England. One edge I really believe Miami has is Chad Pennington - he's been amazing at managing and executing the game plan - and in crunch time, I'd take him over Matt Cassel any day.
I had this game coming out with a line of Miami -3, which is what it opened at. I KNEW that New England would get pounded. The perception still is that Miami is a bad team. Don't even try to compare this team to last year, or any year since Marino. I think it says a lot about the culture change in the organization about how hard the team plays EVERY GAME when they basically say - Chris Chambers, Zach Thomas, Wes Welker, Jason Taylor - we don't need you - we can win without you. Ever major offensive and defensive star they have had throughout the last few years has been traded, or let go through free agency. While you won't find alot of big names on this roster - this team is reminding me of the Patriots of a few years back when they just wanted to be known as a team - that is what Miami brings - a team effort week in and out.
Another reason I really like Miami to win the game today is they have nothing to lose. They are SUPPOSED to lose remember? They are supposed to just win a few games this year. All the pressure is on New England. An undefeated team a season ago, a few minutes away froma Super Bowl win - and today with a loss, that might seal their chance at playoff hopes. Now i know alot of people like to play on "must win" teams. However, I think the Pats will play a little tight in this game today. Miami on the other hand, will be comfortable at home - it's always tough to win in Miami. Biggest game at home in years for Miami. Miami though wasn't supposed to be in this spot - so any win they get is just gravy. However, don't think this team isn't being coached to believe. Sparono in my opinion IS the coach of the year - the cultur has changed, the players play hard EVERY down. Life once again is good in Miami.
So back to the game and the spread. As of right now, the spread has swung from Miami -3, to New England -1...that's a 4 point swing! I haven't seen one person on Miami today - New England i've seen nearly everyone playing. Some sites have about 88% on New England today. On the road in a big game w/ 2 teams playing nearly identical football. I'll lean to the home team getting points here. I believe this line might rise a little more, at least I'm taking my chance this morning. One of my outlets has Miami +2. I wouldn't be surprised to find a 2.5 and maybe even a 3 as we get close to kickoff. One outlet i talked to hasn't had a single play on Miami and I wouldn't be surprised to get a 3. I'm just waiting a little. Honestly though, I'd play Miami at the opener -3 line. I think they win by at least 4 today.
As I always say there are never any locks or sure things. All we can do is make plays that each of us feel are strongest. I love how this game has been setup. I think this is going to be a very entertaining game. Pennington and Miami will have a game plan for NE today and I believe execute it to a victory. Look for a very fired up Joey Porter and the Miami defense today - they are going to apply some pressure to Matt Cassel today - and I think force a key turnover.
Still 2.5 hours until kickoff. I'm waiting to lock in the play, but will post the line I get. Right now +2 is the best I've found - in a game like this, every half or whole point count. I just hope people continue to pound New England, because I want this line to keep going in my favor. Miami wins this game today - I am putting $5K on it that says they cover today.
THE PLAY:
MIAMI DOLPHINS + the points
Good luck if you play it. Go Miami!
--SAVE IT
Looking to keep things rolling - having an oustanding week in NFL & CFB - haven't lost a wager all week which translates into up a nice chunk.
On to NFL Sunday. I've had this game circled for a few weeks now. Everything has lined up as I have hoped it would. Miami and New England both come in at 6W-4L straight up, and 5W-5L against the spread. It is amazing how even these teams appear if you dig into the numbers:
Miami avg. 20.9 ppg, and gives up 19.7 ppg
New England avg. 21.9 ppg and gives up 19.4 ppg
Miami avg. 117.5 rush, 236.0 pass, 353.5 ypg
NE avg. 132.3 rush, 214.2 pass, 346.5 ypg
Both teams 4-2 record at home, 2-2 record away.
Now numbers only tell some of the tale - as past results are not always an indicatior of future results. The one game they have played though Miami won IN NEW ENGLAND 38-13 - this cannot be ignored. Wildcat formation or not, Miami had the answer for New England. One edge I really believe Miami has is Chad Pennington - he's been amazing at managing and executing the game plan - and in crunch time, I'd take him over Matt Cassel any day.
I had this game coming out with a line of Miami -3, which is what it opened at. I KNEW that New England would get pounded. The perception still is that Miami is a bad team. Don't even try to compare this team to last year, or any year since Marino. I think it says a lot about the culture change in the organization about how hard the team plays EVERY GAME when they basically say - Chris Chambers, Zach Thomas, Wes Welker, Jason Taylor - we don't need you - we can win without you. Ever major offensive and defensive star they have had throughout the last few years has been traded, or let go through free agency. While you won't find alot of big names on this roster - this team is reminding me of the Patriots of a few years back when they just wanted to be known as a team - that is what Miami brings - a team effort week in and out.
Another reason I really like Miami to win the game today is they have nothing to lose. They are SUPPOSED to lose remember? They are supposed to just win a few games this year. All the pressure is on New England. An undefeated team a season ago, a few minutes away froma Super Bowl win - and today with a loss, that might seal their chance at playoff hopes. Now i know alot of people like to play on "must win" teams. However, I think the Pats will play a little tight in this game today. Miami on the other hand, will be comfortable at home - it's always tough to win in Miami. Biggest game at home in years for Miami. Miami though wasn't supposed to be in this spot - so any win they get is just gravy. However, don't think this team isn't being coached to believe. Sparono in my opinion IS the coach of the year - the cultur has changed, the players play hard EVERY down. Life once again is good in Miami.
So back to the game and the spread. As of right now, the spread has swung from Miami -3, to New England -1...that's a 4 point swing! I haven't seen one person on Miami today - New England i've seen nearly everyone playing. Some sites have about 88% on New England today. On the road in a big game w/ 2 teams playing nearly identical football. I'll lean to the home team getting points here. I believe this line might rise a little more, at least I'm taking my chance this morning. One of my outlets has Miami +2. I wouldn't be surprised to find a 2.5 and maybe even a 3 as we get close to kickoff. One outlet i talked to hasn't had a single play on Miami and I wouldn't be surprised to get a 3. I'm just waiting a little. Honestly though, I'd play Miami at the opener -3 line. I think they win by at least 4 today.
As I always say there are never any locks or sure things. All we can do is make plays that each of us feel are strongest. I love how this game has been setup. I think this is going to be a very entertaining game. Pennington and Miami will have a game plan for NE today and I believe execute it to a victory. Look for a very fired up Joey Porter and the Miami defense today - they are going to apply some pressure to Matt Cassel today - and I think force a key turnover.
Still 2.5 hours until kickoff. I'm waiting to lock in the play, but will post the line I get. Right now +2 is the best I've found - in a game like this, every half or whole point count. I just hope people continue to pound New England, because I want this line to keep going in my favor. Miami wins this game today - I am putting $5K on it that says they cover today.
THE PLAY:
MIAMI DOLPHINS + the points
Good luck if you play it. Go Miami!
--SAVE IT
