I ony have read this article yesterday, so I havent come up with many answers. I do feel that this topic is EXTREMELY important. I have only been in NASCAR-Winston Cup for about a year, but I have bet the NFL and other sports for a long time. There is one thing I have learned about betting sports, there is a thread of the same common sense that runs thru all sports.
The sports books, whether it is a Nevada sports book or on-line, follow basically the same rules. Sports books are a corporation. They dont want to take a chance, especially on some new seat of the pants approach. They want to know what the facts are. What are the stats. Crank out a tested and true formula. What has happened the last 5-10 years.
If NASCAR used bicycles for one race, the books would keep using the same formula. They have to. Its a business. The suits decide.
That is their achilles heel.
Unfortunately, they are usually right. It is extremely rare that there is a dramatic change in any sport.
So there it is. If you read the article and decide it really is not important, which is of course your choice, than nothing has changed. Stop now.
Before Daytona, my NASCAR friends didnt think the engine factor was really going to matter, so as the least experienced WCS person, I went along. After Daytona, I read the article and it opened my eyes a little.
The difference between drivers that have the same experience at a particular track will be small if any. I feel the advantage comes from a veteran at a track matching up against a rookie. That is the value here. Not in who is going to win the race (but you can limit the possibilities), but in the 1-on-1 matchups.
Since the teams cant run the car (the engine) anywhere near the amount of time before, practices are really limited. There are only so many miles on any engine. No one wants to push the limit. This has not been done before. Some veterans have driven each track twice a year for MANY years. They know the feel of the track already. however, the rookies and inexperienced drivers are not getting the feel with such a short practice. Every track is unique.
This week is one of the shorter races, so they had a little more practice. Only 400 miles. But there are races coming up that are 600 miles. Will there be any practice?
I dont have the answers yet as far as which driver has driven a certain track x-times. If anyone has a link that lists each driver and how many times he has driven different courses, please post.
I am looking for matchups, especially on long courses, where there is a old veteran against a rookie or 1st year driver. Lets hope for the best.
