One good play for Monday

[Spock]

Minny

Lot of chalk here .. But as someone said.. better to have a winnin ticket at end of day ..

Comin back to my thread on mentality a couple of days back .. KC just not mentally strong now .. they cannot hold onto leads and any team which comes back again and again to win (like minny did last 2 games) shows that this team is really motivated and really wanna win. Both teams headin in completely opposite directions .. KC had minny down to 2 outs in the 9'th but could not finish them off .. this takes a huge chunk outta u mentally .. Same thing happened the other day in the Jays game against Baltimore .. I thought Toronto would rebound .. damn was I wrong .. I think the reboundin theory only holds for winnin teams ..

KC is 3-22 in its last 25 games on the road.
Minny is 18-4 in last 22 meetings betn these teams.

KC is 1-7 in Sedlacek's last 8 starts (the only win bein against Texas @ home)
Minny has won in May's last 4 starts

The ERA's are a bit deceptive for the pitchers .. Mays has been pitchin well his last 3 starts .. Sedlacek is goin the other way ..

KC is battin .234 against right handed starters last 10 games
Minny is battin .317 against right handed starters last 10 games

KC is battin .250 against right handed starters overall
Minny is battin .292 against right handed starters overall

KC has lost all 4 of Sedlacek's starts on the road.
Mays has won all 3 starts at home.

KC is 15-20 in day games this season
Minny is 19-15 in day games this season


KC is 5-6 when playin on Monday
Minny is 10-1 when playin on Monday

Sedlacek's has not started against Minny ..

MAYS is 3-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.248.

I think Minny wins this one by around 2-3 runs at least. But am afraid to play the runline as never seem to catch the breaks ..

Good luck to all
Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

also leanin towards TB Over 10.

TB pitcher shud be nervous and hopefully (and its a big hope) White Sox can get a lot of runs off him. Both bull pens are not stellar ..(as W Sox proved this point yesterday) .. TB shud be able to get at least 4-5 runs with their hot bats .

Good luck
Spock

# Please note that play is a 1 unit play .. and not riskin 2.05 units to win 1 unit

 

[Theboundbook]

Good luck Spock. Sucks about the chalk on Minny..... Will bite though.

 

[Spock]

i know bound .. . thats why not riskin a lot .. looks good for a 1 unit play at least.

Also Mets Over 7 looks good ..

if game is 3-3 at least will get a push .. any thoughts on this game ..

 

[Spock]

Passin with White Sox Over for now .. will not give them chance to screw me 2 times in a row .. lean is defi on the Over but better to not play for myself.

Playin the followin so far :

Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Mets Over 7 -115
50.00 --- > 43.48

Minnesota Twins(Sedlacek Shawn/Mays Joe) Both LP 0 -205 50.00 --- > 24.39

Los Angeles Dodgers(Nomo Hideo/Duckworth Brandon)
Both LP 0 -111
50.00 --- > 45.05

 

[prestidig]

I am with you on Minny.
-200 chalk is equal to a 67% chance of winning. It means you would have to hit more than 67% of the time when playing teams at -200 to make money.

Minny's record as at home is 40-19 (68%) = -210

Minny's record as a home favorite is 35-11 (76%) = -320!

Considering thise numbers, I think the line should be much higher. Minnesota isn't a bad deal at -200 if you look at the overall group of games rather than just one particular matchup.

The fact that KC is such a pathetic road team also makes the choice clear. I have numbers that show that Minny is hitting at 84% (-530!) against similarly rated competition. This does not guarantee a win today (and I am only playing to win one unit), but I will continue to lay chalk on Minny in this type of match-up as long as the line converts to odds that are in my favor over the long term.

Good luck! Go Twins!

 

[Spock]

u r right .. i dont do research as to the % stuff a lot .. thanx for the views

go with how teams are playin and how they are mentally ..
the team which wins is the one who wants it more badly .. and from the interviews that i read on the minny players they are well aware of the advantage of home court .. they are chasin the yanks and need all the wins they get against below .500 teams.
stronger team .. good chance of winnin .. play on them

Minny has to lose sometime .. lets hope not today

 

[Rakingitin]

Love the over in the Mets/Arizona game. Humidity plus Johnson threw a ton of pitches last time out. Mets will hit a couple long balls off Randy and Arizona will at least get 4 off Estes.

Sox screw me no matter how I play them, over, under, with them against them. Have given up on capping them. They suck anyway. What a waste of talent.

Good luck to you today.

 

[Spock]

Up here in Canada .. at least in Toronto we have long weekend .. Civic holiday .

I need motivation to watch the Blue Jays game on TV ..

so going with the UNDER 9 runs in this game ..

betting $ 2 --- > $1.75

I had to think a lot before layin $2 on Toronto Under .. hate givin money to charity .. by now Jays organization must have recieved work i have bet on the Under. Will just relax in bed and watch them blaze away to glory .. or be blazed .. either way to screw the Under

 

[Spock]

Rakington .. good luck on big bet ..

The good thing about total 7 is if the game is tied 3-3 then at least we get a push ..

Lets go Boys

 

[no all]

love minny today

good luck spock

 

[Spock]

Minny just dropped from -205 to -187 ..

heavy hitters are on KC looks like

 

[no all]

ya I saw that
still love minny today
love where hunter is hittin in today's lineup

 

[Spock]

just as I thought .. word has reached the Jays office ..

A HR to the lead off man in the first innin ..

 

[Spock]

nice .. Toronto bats on fire now ..

Looks like an o for xx night ..

No plays on the Anaheim game seein how things are goin today ..

Arizona / Mets game .. first four innings .. 1 hit ????????
what the fux is that ??????????????

LA .. nomo sux .. shud have laid off ..

Minny .. losin by 1 so they may come back ..

Good luck to all ..
Spock

 

[Spock]

what a horrible day ..


1. Minny .. damn Mays made an error and could not throw to get the third out in the inning. Then he and relievers combined to give up 5 or 6 runs .. :thefinger

2. LA .. . leadin by 1 going into bottom 8 .. basterds .. never seen a game where with bases loaded the pitcher hits the guy battin 2 times in a row to drive in TWO FREAKIN RUNS .. then with men on first and third and 1 out .. HOW IN HELL CAN U STRIKE OUT LOOKING in top 9'th .. then of course the idiot hits the second pitch after a ball to get out and leave bases loaded top 9'th to lose the freakin game.

3. Az/Mets Over. . . . looks like lot of people were on this but how can u have 1 hit thru 7 innings combined for both teams ..
needless to say lost this one by a wide wide margin ..
mebbe just a wrong call by me for bein on these jokers ..


THE ONLY WIN IS THE $2 PLAY ON THE TORONTO UNDER.

go figure .. .

 

[Theboundbook]

Spock,

Sorry about your day. Look at Anaheim though. I am in a toss up on the RL or the chalky ML on this one. Sorry about Minny. I took the under and that didn't work. Good luck to you. Maybe tonight is a football day for ya.