One Play - Week 11

BASON

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I will make my second NFL play this week (first one was Pitt over Balt).

TN +7 -127

I do not think the Ravens should favored by a TD over any decent team right now. Sure, there is some motivation after losing to them in the playoffs last year, but this team as some serious issues. I think we are also seeing a little over reaction to TN's loss last week.

On offense, they have a unit that can not pass the ball. Teams know this and defenses have adjusted against them. They know their WRs can not get open so they load up against the run. Matt Skura, their center, has been terrible. Not only with snap mistakes but he is getting pushed all over the field. They made a serious mistake trading Hayden Hurst in the offseason which took away their 3 TE sets that were very successful last year. Now, Boyle, their highly paid and very popular blocking TE, is out for the rest of the season, which is a bigger deal than most think. All of this limits this offense no matter who they are playing.

On defense, they still have issues stopping the run. The Titans ran all over them last year and the Ravens reacted by drafting two inside LBs, Queen and Harrison. I can guarantee that TN watched the NWE game and witnessed these two LBs getting pushed all over the field. They were making tackles 8-10 yards down the field. They have trouble shedding blocks and the interior lineman are not keeping the OL off of them. I expect TN to be able to run the ball all over them again which also opens up the passing game, which is precisely why they lost last year.

I also firmly believe coaching matters and the Sunday night game certainly proved that belief. You saw a team with less talent have a great game plan and beat the better team that was not prepared to play. The Ravens coaches have made a series of errors that have hampered this team. Greg Roman, the OC, has done a terrible, terrible job this year. You can only place so much blame on the WRs and OL. At some point, the coordinators need to adjust to the talent they have and Baltimore does not do this. They have turned an MVP QB into a run of the mill player on a below average offense. Harbaugh lets his coordinators do what they want but he needs to step in and force some changes to be made.

This team makes costly mistakes and lacks leadership and focus. Everyone keeps waiting for Jackson and this team to wake up and play to their potential, but they have not done that yet at all this year. Is it possible they wake up this week? Sure, but until they do, my money continues to be against them and I will gladly take a TD.
 

yanno

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Good analysis! I will just add that defenses against Lamar have figured out that they can keep a spy on him to limit the run and then play man on man instead of zone. He has seen more man on man this year so far than all of last year. Problem is that he is not sharp enough so far to throw into tight coverage.

At least that is my take, which means that they are not letting him do this year what made him a success last. :0008
 
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BASON

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I agree Yanno. Ironic, because that is what makes Baltimore's defense so effective when they are healthy. Having 3-4 strong corners that can cover man to man is a huge deal in the NFL because it allows you to load up against the rush and blitz on passing downs. And it is even more effective when the offense does not have a top WR. CB has become the most important position in the NFL besides a franchise QB.
 
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BASON

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If this hits, I will take some of the profits and play the Broncos late. The Miami euphoria is getting out of hand.
 

BASON

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Easy money.

This Ravens are a terribly coached team that has no leadership. I do not care how many regular season games against bad teams Lamar Jackson wins he is not a big game QB. He makes too many mistakes and just can not make the big play. Also, their defense can not stop the run.

I already bet the Steelers -3 big for Thursday night. Hard to see the Ravens winning this game.
 
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