Round 4 play (2pts):
Simon Dyson to beat Soren Kjeldsen +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]
An unusual play to back the leader heading into the final round, and particularly when he double-bogeyed the last hole. However, the initial fault was a flyer from 180 yards rather than a poor shot and I do like his confidence about his game: "I should be out of sight the way I am playing". He won the Irish Open last year when holding the lead at the start of Sunday and he does have a good record in this event in particular: two top-5 finishes in his last four attempts. Kjeldsen is in prime position, being one shot back, but he has been much less impressive from tee-to-green this week and it has been three years since he started the final round in the top-3. At these odds, I will take the value in backing Dyson.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Dyson tb Larrazabal +120; Micheel tb Baldwin -120]