how many games, the spread came into play this past year - to decided the winning side ATS?
thanks in advance
thanks in advance
OS -or anyone- do you know...
- Thread starter tball
- Start date
- Mar 19, 2006
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- 551
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from my remedial tracking in looking at week by week, it looks as if 41 games out of the year total 256, had the spread come into play as far as ATS winner
thats roughly 2 dogs losing SU, but covering for every 13 games
* denotes division game
week 1: wash/phi* (1), sea/cin (2), det/az (3), hou/no (4)
week 2: az/balt (5), jax/hou* (6), chi/den (7)
week 3: buf/cin (8), nyj/ne* (9), sf/pit (10)
week 4: kc/det (11), ne/buf* (12)
week 5: sea/lar* (13)
week 6: was/mia (14), cin/bal* (15), det/gb* (16)
week 7: mia/buf* (17), was/sf (18)
week 8: was/min (19), sea/atl (20), nyg/det (21), den/ind (22), hou/oak (23), mia/pitt (24)
week 9: sf/az* (25)
week 10: az/tb (26)
week 11: den/min (27), cin/oak (28)
week 12: ind/hou* (29), nyg/chi (30), no/car* (31), dal/ne (32)
week 13: det/chi* (33), sf/balt (34)
week 14: mia/nyj* (35), wash/gb (36), nyg/phi* (37)
week 16: lar/sf* (38)
week 17: gb/det* (39), chi/min* (40), oak/den* (41)
18 of the 41 were divisional tilts (gb/det there twice)
GB was involved in 3 games where spread counted - 2 of which were tilts vs divisional DET who was involved in most games that spread made difference
det 6
wash 5
sf 5
cin 4
mia 4
az 4
hou 4
chi 4
den 4
balt 3
gb 3
minn 3
sea 3
nyg 3
ne 3
oak 3
buf 3
nyj 2
ind 2
ar 2
phi 2
pitt 2
no 2
tb 1
car 1
dal 1
atl 1
kc 1
jac 1
thats roughly 2 dogs losing SU, but covering for every 13 games
* denotes division game
week 1: wash/phi* (1), sea/cin (2), det/az (3), hou/no (4)
week 2: az/balt (5), jax/hou* (6), chi/den (7)
week 3: buf/cin (8), nyj/ne* (9), sf/pit (10)
week 4: kc/det (11), ne/buf* (12)
week 5: sea/lar* (13)
week 6: was/mia (14), cin/bal* (15), det/gb* (16)
week 7: mia/buf* (17), was/sf (18)
week 8: was/min (19), sea/atl (20), nyg/det (21), den/ind (22), hou/oak (23), mia/pitt (24)
week 9: sf/az* (25)
week 10: az/tb (26)
week 11: den/min (27), cin/oak (28)
week 12: ind/hou* (29), nyg/chi (30), no/car* (31), dal/ne (32)
week 13: det/chi* (33), sf/balt (34)
week 14: mia/nyj* (35), wash/gb (36), nyg/phi* (37)
week 16: lar/sf* (38)
week 17: gb/det* (39), chi/min* (40), oak/den* (41)
18 of the 41 were divisional tilts (gb/det there twice)
GB was involved in 3 games where spread counted - 2 of which were tilts vs divisional DET who was involved in most games that spread made difference
det 6
wash 5
sf 5
cin 4
mia 4
az 4
hou 4
chi 4
den 4
balt 3
gb 3
minn 3
sea 3
nyg 3
ne 3
oak 3
buf 3
nyj 2
ind 2
ar 2
phi 2
pitt 2
no 2
tb 1
car 1
dal 1
atl 1
kc 1
jac 1
I think a more important question is, when does the spread really take effect?
I think we can agree that the spread matters in more on -14 games, than -2.
If I like the dog, surely there is more value in taking them on the ML as a small dog, rather than take the points.
I think we can agree that the spread matters in more on -14 games, than -2.
If I like the dog, surely there is more value in taking them on the ML as a small dog, rather than take the points.
below results pulled vegasinsider.com
AFC Championship Betting Results
In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 straight up and 28-20-1 against the spread.
There have been seven games where the favorite has won but it did not win by enough points to cover the spread.
AFC Championship Over Under Results
Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
There have been five totals in AFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and the 'under' has gone 3-2 in those games. That mark includes the 2018-19 installment between New England and Kansas City. The Patriots captured a 37-31 overtime victory over the Chiefs and that was only the second overtime game in AFC title history. The road team won both of those matchups in the extra session.
NFC Championship Betting Results
In the first 49 games of the NFC Championship, favorites have gone 32-17 straight up and 26-22-1 against the spread.
There have been six games in the NFC Championship where the favorite has won but failed to cover the closing point-spread.
The 2018-19 NFC Championship was one of the title games that was tied after regulation. In that outcome, the Los Angeles Rams defeated the New Orleans Saints 26-23 from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Louisiana.
NFC Championship Over Under Results
Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
There have been five totals in NFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and the attacks lived up to the expectations as the 'over' has gone 4-1. The most recent NFC edition between the Rams and Saints was one of those contests and that game stayed 'under' the total. Even though that game saw an extra session (OT), total bettors have seen the 'over' go 4-2 in the six NFC Championships that went to overtime.
AFC Championship Betting Results
In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 straight up and 28-20-1 against the spread.
There have been seven games where the favorite has won but it did not win by enough points to cover the spread.
- 2018 - New England (-7.5) 24 Jacksonville 20
- 2012 - New England (-7) 23 Baltimore 20
- 2008 - New England (-14) 21 San Diego 12
- 1996 - Pittsburgh (-12) 20 Indianapolis 16
- 1992 - Buffalo (-11) 10 Denver 7
- 1978 - Denver (-3.5) 20 Oakland 17
- 1976 - Pittsburgh (-6) 16 Oakland 10
AFC Championship Over Under Results
Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
There have been five totals in AFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and the 'under' has gone 3-2 in those games. That mark includes the 2018-19 installment between New England and Kansas City. The Patriots captured a 37-31 overtime victory over the Chiefs and that was only the second overtime game in AFC title history. The road team won both of those matchups in the extra session.
NFC Championship Betting Results
In the first 49 games of the NFC Championship, favorites have gone 32-17 straight up and 26-22-1 against the spread.
There have been six games in the NFC Championship where the favorite has won but failed to cover the closing point-spread.
- 2015 - Seattle (-8.5) 28 Green Bay 22 (OT)
- 2010 - New Orleans (-4) 31 Minnesota 28 (OT)
- 2000 - St. Louis (-14.5) 11 Tampa Bay 6
- 1984 - Washington (-10.5) 24 San Francisco 21
- 1982 - San Francisco (-3) 28 Dallas 27
- 1975 - Minnesota (-4) 14 L.A. Rams 10
The 2018-19 NFC Championship was one of the title games that was tied after regulation. In that outcome, the Los Angeles Rams defeated the New Orleans Saints 26-23 from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Louisiana.
NFC Championship Over Under Results
Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
There have been five totals in NFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and the attacks lived up to the expectations as the 'over' has gone 4-1. The most recent NFC edition between the Rams and Saints was one of those contests and that game stayed 'under' the total. Even though that game saw an extra session (OT), total bettors have seen the 'over' go 4-2 in the six NFC Championships that went to overtime.
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i'm really only concerning myself about all of this, because spread hasn't been a factor at all this postseason
aside from push in HOU/BUFF game with line of 3
i mean, it certainly makes sense when the underdogs make good showing in surprise outright wins, like this year
in my head, i'm telling myself, theres a good likelihood that one of the games this weekend with find a fav, not covering, but winning --- but which one?
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</tbody>
the first number^ is number of games where spread didn't affect ats #-#-#,
second is game where spread dictated ATS winner #-#-#,
third (when applicable) is games that pushed on number #-#-#
so is telling us the spread never came into effect for ATS winning side -at all- in 2016/2017 playoffs (again, through conf games)
aside from push in HOU/BUFF game with line of 3
i mean, it certainly makes sense when the underdogs make good showing in surprise outright wins, like this year
in my head, i'm telling myself, theres a good likelihood that one of the games this weekend with find a fav, not covering, but winning --- but which one?
| year | wildcard | divisional | conference | ttl thru conf gms | ||||||||
| 2019/'20 | 3-0-1 | 4-0 | (7-0-1 thru div rd) | |||||||||
| 2018/'19 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 8-2 | ||||||||
| 2017/'18 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 6-4 | ||||||||
| 2016/'17 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 10-0 | ||||||||
| 2015/'16 | 2-1-1 | 2-1-1 | 2-0 | 6-2-2 | ||||||||
| 2014/'15 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 6-4 | ||||||||
| 2013/'14 | 3-0-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 7-2-1 | ||||||||
| 2012/'13 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 1-0-1 | 8-1-1 | ||||||||
| 2011/'12 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 7-3 | ||||||||
| total | 27-6-3 | 27-8-1 | 11-4-1 | 65-18-5 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
the first number^ is number of games where spread didn't affect ats #-#-#,
second is game where spread dictated ATS winner #-#-#,
third (when applicable) is games that pushed on number #-#-#
so is telling us the spread never came into effect for ATS winning side -at all- in 2016/2017 playoffs (again, through conf games)
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