Outstanding read on the SB

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From 2001-2018 the New England Patriots made the Super Bowl nine times. It was nearly a rite of passage come the first Sunday in February to see Brady, Belichick, and the Pats in the big game. And it was usually a contentious nail biter. Only one time was a Pats Super Bowl during this period decided by more than one possession.


Now 6 seasons later the Pats are back. But not the Pats of old. Gone are Brady and Belichick. In are Vrabel, Maye, a totally new roster, even new uniforms. But it wouldn’t be a Pats Super Bowl without a close game. And that is what I expect this Super Bowl Sunday.

The Seattle Seahawks have appeared to be one of the premier teams all season. They sport a 16-3 record, a 14-5 ATS record, and led the league in point differential. They rank Top 10 in DVOA all-time. By most analyst’s accounts they are an historically good team that should cruise to victory over a plucky, youthful Patriots team that are only here because of their terrible schedule. I disagree. I always like to dive deeper into games and will outline several overlooked factors that will impact the game, and where I think New England has a clear edge. Let’s start with some factors that make me think the Seattle offense is going to struggle quite a bit, and then we’ll finish with a couple of bigger picture or “intangible” edges.

Seattle has a gaping hole in the middle of their OL.

The interior of the Seahawks’ OL is dreadful. You have to tip your cap to them for getting this far but I think they are ripe to be exploited. Anthony Bradford, Jalen Sundell, and Grey Zabel make up the interior of the Seattle OL. Out of 60 qualify guards who played over 50% of snaps this season Bradford was the 2nd worst pass blocker in the league per PFF. The much hyped Zabel was not much better at 44th/60. C Sundell ranked slightly below average at 21st/40 qualifying centers.

This is a problem against New England because they have four legit very good DT that are healthy and surging. Among the 100 DT with 200+ pass rush snaps this season the Pats quartet of Cory Durden, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Khyris Tonga rank 2nd, 8th, 15th, and 26th in pass rush win rate per PFF. These four alone have generated 41 pressures in three playoff games. Unbelievable production from the DT spot. The key too is their depth. They’ll have two fresh, productive DT on the field every snap against bad offensive linemen.

Sam Darnold is not very mobile and has a history of being susceptible to middle pressure. I think he’s going to get that all game, and as the hits mount during the game I think his eyes will be dropping to the line or he’ll be rushing throws. Remember Darnold was third in the league in interceptions this season and gave the ball away 17 times. The Patriots have a clear avenue to cause major pressure and come away with some sacks and TO.

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Seattle might invite late down blitzes via an inefficient run game.


Kenneth Walker is an interesting player. He can have some amazing, explosive plays where it looks like he can score from anywhere on the field. But he and the SEA run game are not overly efficient. For the season the Seahawks run game ranks just 21st in success rate. Even last week against the Rams when Walker looked so explosive the Seahawks managed a paltry 27% success rate! That’s a real problem here because as mentioned the Pats DT’s have a huge edge in the middle and the Pats run defense ranks 8th in success rate when Milton Williams has played.

If the Seahawks aren’t having a lot of successful plays on early downs in the run game that puts them in 3rd and longs, leaving them susceptible to the Pats increased blitz rates. The Pats have blitzed 41% of the time in the playoffs. That would have ranked 2nd for the full year only behind blitz maestro Brian Flores. Perhaps noteworthy that when Seattle faced Brian Flores this year they managed a pathetic 219 yards and only 3.2 yards per play. Darnold had 128 yards passing and took 4 sacks. For the season Darnold ranked 23rd in DVOA against the blitz. And Seattle was 31st in 3rd and long conversion percentage!

Now do I expect NE to have success rushing the ball on offense? Not really. But everyone already knows that. That’s more baked into the number than the struggles I see for the Seahawks.

 

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I think the Patriots have the tools to contain Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

So, if Seattle may not have much rushing success, get put in 3rd and longs, and be blitzed a bunch with bad interior OL where does their success come from? Well for this season so much of it has been JSN. Throws to him have been among the most success plays in the league this season. He’s a truly elite WR that powers the Seahawks offense. How do you contain him? With talent and scheme. I think the Pats have a bit of both.

Talent: The Pats have a very good group of CB. Christian Gonzalez is an elite shutdown guy. He led the NFL in fewest yards per target allowed this season. Carlton Davis is a great #2. A veteran that has a ring and has really played well down the stretch as he’s got healthy and more acclimated to a new team. Marcus Jones is a junkyard dog and playmaker in the slot. For the season these three have only allowed 58% completions, 5.9 yards per attempt, and a 75.4 passer rating against. The Seahawks move JSN a lot so he won’t be on any one CB all game but with the Pats depth at the position he should have a quality CB on him most snaps.

Scheme: A lot of JSN’s success comes off play action passes. The Pats defense though is well coached and rank #1 in defending the play action pass. With the extra prep time too I suspect an all out effort to limit JSN. Bill Belichick would always devise gameplans in these big games against clear #1s like JSN. Mike Vrabel isn’t just a Belichick coaching protégé, he was an active player who knew those gameplans inside and out.

I don’t think the Pats stop JSN but with the CB talent, play action success, and extra time to scheme doubles to him, I think NE has a solid shot to contain Seattle’s biggest weapon.

Now let’s look at some more of the intangle edges the Pats have:



The Patriots are a much better team now than earlier in the season. Seattle has tailed off a bit.



As great as the Seahawks have been in DVOA for the season, using weighted DVOA which places more weight on games later in the year, the Patriots rate out nearly as good. Seattle is #1 in weighted DVOA, but the Pats are #2. DVOA adjusts for schedule.



If we look at EPA and Success Rates, we also see Seattle has regressed on offense while NE has improved a lot on defense. Through the first 10 weeks of the season throwing out TO and garbage time the Seahawks were ranked #1 in offensive EPA and #4 in success rate. Over the last 10 weeks they are #11 in EPA and #9 in success rate. Still not but not elite and a noticeable drop. New England’s defense over the same timeframe was #11 EPA and #17 success rate in the early season and have improved #8 in EPA and #12 in success rate since.

Clearly New England has improved as the season has gone on. Yes, schedule does play a part but I think there are several reasons. 1. They had an entirely new coaching staff. It takes time for everyone to acclimate and learn systems. 2. Their defensive coordinator was diagnosed with cancer in September. Not only did the defense have to learn a new system in camp but then they had a new DC entirely just as the season was starting.

 

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The Patriots have the way better QB. And they have a path to throw the ball.


Sometimes it really can be as simple as the better QB is catching points. Drake Maye is elite. He has been an MVP candidate all year. He hasn’t been at his best in the playoffs, but he’s played awesome defenses and two of the games have been in bad weather. He obviously plays another elite D here but it’s hard to keep great QBs down for many games in a row. And he’s a real weapon and playmaker with his legs. Something you love catching 4.5 with. Sam Darnold? Ehh. As outlined, I think his run game struggles, he gets blitzed, rushed up the middle, and his top weapon gets contained. In other words he’s going to be stressed to the max here and when he’s been stressed to the max in the past he’s turned into an absolute pumpkin.

I also think New England throws the ball a ton in this game. Their coaching staff knows they aren’t going to have a lot of success running into Seattle’s run defense. But there are avenues to attack in the Seahawks back end. Remember how New England’s top 3 CB combined to allow 58% completions, 5.9 yards per target, and a 75.4 passer rating? Seattle’s top 3 CB have allowd 60% completions, 6.4 yards per target, and an 87.7 passer rating. Josh Jobe is simply not good. Riq Woolen has been very up and down and can have some big lapses. New England doesn’t have a dominant #1 like JSN, but they have a lot of solid depth as they have four guys over 600 yards receiving on the season. They also have the 6 highest neutral pass rate. Maye will be throwing here and with depth at WR/TE he should be able to find some success against Seattle CBs that aren’t as good as they are cracked up to be.

Mike Vrabel is a far superior game manager than Mike MacDonald.

Rbsdm has a great stat measuring 4 down aggressiveness and decision making. Looking at any 4 down this season that increases your win probability of winning by 0.5% or more by simply snapping the ball we see the Patriots rank 5in the league in aggressiveness, going for it about 61% of the time. Seattle on the other hand ranks 7 worst, only going for it 37% of the time.

If you filter that data down for NE to games they were underdogs and playoff games this season we see Vrabel is even more aggressive. In these games on 4th down with a 1% or more WP increase he has gone for it 68% of the time. Vrabel is an elite coach at knowing the situation and squeezing every last drop out of the orange. He makes correct game state decisions all the time in big games and when he’s an underdog. As a head coach he has a career ATS record of 59% as any underdog and is 19-8-1 ATS when catching 4 or more points.

Both coaches are defensive guys at heart but Mike Vrabel manages the game aggressively and looks to increase variance even more when he’s an underdog. This is exactly what you want. Too many times this year MacDonald has kicked FG in the redzone on 4 down or punted from go-for-it territory. Wouldn’t be surprised at all with a patented Vrabel special teams fake or trick play on offense either. Game management could loom large.

 

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Summary





Obviously, these posts are slanted towards the Patriots. I made the line much lower and thought I would highlight several overlooked factors that favor NE and where I think they have the edge.



Have they played a bad schedule and not played the great QBs in their conference? Absolutely, but everyone knows that. I also think the bad schedule is masking how good they are. It’s not like they escaped game after game against bad teams. They destroyed their schedule and finished Top 3 in the league in point differential. They stepped up in bad spots all season. Big Sunday Night Football wins in Buffalo when they were told they were too young, coming back in Baltimore when they were told they had played no one. Winning all playoffs against elite defenses. This team has grown and is hardened. I don’t think they are a product of their schedule.



Is Seattle damn good? Yes. Their defense is phenomenal. Special teams top notch. But again, everyone knows that. It’s factored into the line. Are they really the 7 best team of all-time as they currently sit in DVOA? That seems like a stretch. I think the offense has holes and the defense isn’t unbeatable either. In recent weeks the Rams put up 581 and 479 yards on them. Even Baker Mayfield went up and down the field on them this year for 426 yards and 38 points. This is not the Legion of Boom.



Overall, there are several overlooked edges here that make the underdog very appealing. You have the favorite who has holes on offense playing a surging, underrated defense. You have a great QB catching points as an underdog who can make plays with his legs and plays in an offense that is going to be pass heavy, which negates Seattle elite run defense edge. And you have a coach that has a large edge in game management tactics and can steal points. All those things considered makes it tough to see Seattle pulling ahead by margin.