Packers Future Line - Win NFC

[Mags]

Was looking at this today at my offshore book - a perfect example why NFL futures are such bad bets.....

The book had the Packers as +225 to win the NFC crown (which means winning the next 2 games).

So, that means they'd have to win in ATL this weekend (not easy) and then likely have to win in Chicago (not easy) or Seattle (as NO has shown, not easy)....

OK, so in ATL they are +120 underdogs. That would mean, for the +225 to be correct (the same as betting the ML consecutively for the next 2 weeks on GB), then

Wouldn't that mean GB would be a -210 favorite on the money line in the NFC championship game? Clearly there is no way that GB would be a -210 fav against the Bears on the road - POSSIBLY Seattle, if they were favored by 5 points or so...

So, it appears in this book's case, you are getting a future line that is ONLY appropriate if Seattle can upset the Bears (10 pt favs).

Be careful betting futures (which I realize that most of you already know).....

 

[R-7]

Yeah, even if they are even money in second game, they should be +340 to win NFC...

Bet your grand. Win. Take the $2200 and place it again...

No sense.

 

[Coach Woody]

Maybe Vegas is thinking Packers win the NFC and don't want to take a bath on it??????

 

[R-7]

That's fine Woody. But I think the point is, Future Bet makes zero sense. If that is what you feel, you will get far better odds by straight betting them against Atlanta. Should they win, double down again against Chi/Sea winner...

Why would ANYONE bet the future bet...

 

[HoopsGuru]

you bet the future bet if and only if you think the odds you are receiving outweigh the odds you will receive on a game by game basis if you can accurately forecast future game lines.

 

[R-7]

Exactly, in this case, not even close....

 

[el JB]

same applies in first week wagers on Superbowl winners .... only the really CRAZY wagers seem good enough to bet then and they're INCERDIBLE LONGSHOTS in any case ...so no futures worth my time or $$$

 

[yyz]

Books use those futures to balance out previous futures they are saddled with, too.

They just might not need any Packer play.

 

[Coach Woody]

No....I get what you were saying and totally agree with you bet the games not the future...I ment that vegas must think Packers have a good shot and that is why the line is different