2002 NFL Season To Date: (all picks posted at MadJack's)
1x: 5-3 (+1.7 Units)
2x: 16-5 (+21.0 Units)
3x: 1-5 (-13.5 Units)
4x: 1-2 (-4.8 Units)
Sides: 21-10 (+12.4 Units)
Totals: 2-5 (-8.0 Units)
Parlays: 0-0 (+0.0 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 23-15 (+4.4 Units)
I have a terrible headache tonight, so I won't do any handicapping just yet. I wanted to explain a bit about my posts, and my strategy. If you just want to read my writeups on this weeks games, they'll be up sometime on Saturday, and you can just scroll down to the next post(s) once they are posted.
I post all of my week's plays in one thread, and have one thread per week. I often make multiple posts, as line changes can affect my decisions. Also, I usually don't have time to handicap every game in one sitting. My threads are generally light reading (except for this week).
Over the past year, I've decided to handicap first half bets, mostly as an experiment to see if there is any advantage in betting them. The key numbers in halftime betting are quite different than for an entire game, and sometimes the house just slices the game total in half, which I hoped would be an advantage. I still bet lines for entire games, but don't post them here. I've learned not to bet both a first half line and a game line for the same team, however.
One distinct advantage to halftime betting is the possibility of a tie. The odds of a tie at the end of a game are extremely slim. Less than one game a season (on average) will end in a tie. However, halftimes end up in a tie quite often. I believe this gives a nice advantage to the small dogs, who might be +1 for a first half bet. I don't have the numbers over many years, but I'd bet a +2 dog (+1 for first half) probably covers first half bets more than the game, partially due to the potential for a tie at halftime. If the game is tied at halftime, the bet wins. If it's tied at the end of the game, there's only a 50-50 or so chance of them covering.
I do look at what some other handicappers write, but I don't look so much for their bets as much as their write ups. Some weeks, I don't look at all at what other handicappers say. Other weeks I spend an hour or two just reading what everyone else has to say before I begin. It all matters on whether or not I have a good feel for the matchups, and if I have enough time. Simply put, my picks are not a piggy-back of anyone on this board, or anywhere else. I often find other handicappers that I respect on the other side of my picks, and that is just fine. I won't be swayed.
I recently gave up on betting halftime totals. I started out last year betting mostly totals, adding in sides around midseason. I discovered I was doing better with sides, so I lowered my wagers on totals. Good thing, as I ended last season with an 0-11 streak on totals. I did still show a profit on all halftime bets, but it was because my wagers on sides carried me along.
Last season, I went 29-15-2 on sides. That's great, but it was not enough wagers to get too excited about. This year, as you can see, I've started out 21-10 on sides. That means 50-25-2 on sides so far. I'm not stating this to boast, but it is starting to appear (at least to me) that first half betting can be worthy.
Last year, and this year so far, I've rated (and bet) plays on how strongly I feel about them. As you can see, my big risks this year are killing me. I haven't decided if I will continue the big variance (1 unit on one play, 4 on another), but I probably won't. As I mentioned, this started as a bit of an experiment, but now that halftime bets account for more than half of my NFL wagers, I want to practice a little better money management.
Speaking of money management, I'll tell you that, for me, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. That means, a majority of my halftime bets have been 2%. Most people would agree that that is rather conservative. I still will not risk more than 4% of my bankroll on a first half bet, but I probably will ditch the 1 unit bets from now on, especially considering I'm sticking primarily with sides. I might try totals again at some point, but for 1 unit bets, and I don't necessarily recommend that you take them until I establish myself with them.
When handicapping games, I take a lot into consideration. I look at numbers, such as past first half performances, I look at yardage, how well/bad a team is at home or on the road, attempt to predict coaching strategies when I feel it is appropriate, check out Sagarin Ratings, see who the public is on (and bet the contrarian angle at times) and look at key matchups. None of these factors always weigh more than the others, and they are almost never equal either. There is no magic formula as far as my bets go. I do use a computer to help crunch numbers and generate reports, but I do not use it to predict winners.
I generally try to write up a paragraph on each bet I make. I almost never type up everything that I took into consideration when making the bet. I often emphasise numbers and trends in my writeups, but they rarely are the deciding factor - just one of the factors. If you're looking for a thoughtful analysis on a game, you won't find it here. Hopefully you'll find a little something that you didn't know, and give you more ammunition to pull the trigger on a team.
Unlike many handicappers, I generally leave other sports alone. I don't have the time to keep up with betting MLB, NBA, and the college sports every day. The NFL is a nice, leasurely one-game-per-team-per-week sport (excluding byes, of course). It gives me a chance to examine the games as much as I feel is necessary. I still bet other sports, and have success during certain times (beginning of conference in college hoops, baseball in August). I just can't spend enough time to risk too much money on them. Working during the day and betting baseball is a bit gruelling.
I do bet every game that I post, and for the number of units that I post. Even though my unit isn't a dime, I take betting seriously. I (usually) practice good money management, and I expect my initial bankroll to last the season. I use only three books (VIP, GameDay and Olympic for those of you who read this far), and I advocate using at least three for anyone who wants to take betting even somewhat seriously.
In summary, I believe that betting the first half line (as opposed to the game line) of NFL games can be advantageous. I hope to prove this throughout the course of the year, and in years beyond. I hope that my analysis will be a positive contribution to this board. This board certainly has been a good contributor to me.
Good luck,
PacMan
1x: 5-3 (+1.7 Units)
2x: 16-5 (+21.0 Units)
3x: 1-5 (-13.5 Units)
4x: 1-2 (-4.8 Units)
Sides: 21-10 (+12.4 Units)
Totals: 2-5 (-8.0 Units)
Parlays: 0-0 (+0.0 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 23-15 (+4.4 Units)
I have a terrible headache tonight, so I won't do any handicapping just yet. I wanted to explain a bit about my posts, and my strategy. If you just want to read my writeups on this weeks games, they'll be up sometime on Saturday, and you can just scroll down to the next post(s) once they are posted.
I post all of my week's plays in one thread, and have one thread per week. I often make multiple posts, as line changes can affect my decisions. Also, I usually don't have time to handicap every game in one sitting. My threads are generally light reading (except for this week).
Over the past year, I've decided to handicap first half bets, mostly as an experiment to see if there is any advantage in betting them. The key numbers in halftime betting are quite different than for an entire game, and sometimes the house just slices the game total in half, which I hoped would be an advantage. I still bet lines for entire games, but don't post them here. I've learned not to bet both a first half line and a game line for the same team, however.
One distinct advantage to halftime betting is the possibility of a tie. The odds of a tie at the end of a game are extremely slim. Less than one game a season (on average) will end in a tie. However, halftimes end up in a tie quite often. I believe this gives a nice advantage to the small dogs, who might be +1 for a first half bet. I don't have the numbers over many years, but I'd bet a +2 dog (+1 for first half) probably covers first half bets more than the game, partially due to the potential for a tie at halftime. If the game is tied at halftime, the bet wins. If it's tied at the end of the game, there's only a 50-50 or so chance of them covering.
I do look at what some other handicappers write, but I don't look so much for their bets as much as their write ups. Some weeks, I don't look at all at what other handicappers say. Other weeks I spend an hour or two just reading what everyone else has to say before I begin. It all matters on whether or not I have a good feel for the matchups, and if I have enough time. Simply put, my picks are not a piggy-back of anyone on this board, or anywhere else. I often find other handicappers that I respect on the other side of my picks, and that is just fine. I won't be swayed.
I recently gave up on betting halftime totals. I started out last year betting mostly totals, adding in sides around midseason. I discovered I was doing better with sides, so I lowered my wagers on totals. Good thing, as I ended last season with an 0-11 streak on totals. I did still show a profit on all halftime bets, but it was because my wagers on sides carried me along.
Last season, I went 29-15-2 on sides. That's great, but it was not enough wagers to get too excited about. This year, as you can see, I've started out 21-10 on sides. That means 50-25-2 on sides so far. I'm not stating this to boast, but it is starting to appear (at least to me) that first half betting can be worthy.
Last year, and this year so far, I've rated (and bet) plays on how strongly I feel about them. As you can see, my big risks this year are killing me. I haven't decided if I will continue the big variance (1 unit on one play, 4 on another), but I probably won't. As I mentioned, this started as a bit of an experiment, but now that halftime bets account for more than half of my NFL wagers, I want to practice a little better money management.
Speaking of money management, I'll tell you that, for me, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. That means, a majority of my halftime bets have been 2%. Most people would agree that that is rather conservative. I still will not risk more than 4% of my bankroll on a first half bet, but I probably will ditch the 1 unit bets from now on, especially considering I'm sticking primarily with sides. I might try totals again at some point, but for 1 unit bets, and I don't necessarily recommend that you take them until I establish myself with them.
When handicapping games, I take a lot into consideration. I look at numbers, such as past first half performances, I look at yardage, how well/bad a team is at home or on the road, attempt to predict coaching strategies when I feel it is appropriate, check out Sagarin Ratings, see who the public is on (and bet the contrarian angle at times) and look at key matchups. None of these factors always weigh more than the others, and they are almost never equal either. There is no magic formula as far as my bets go. I do use a computer to help crunch numbers and generate reports, but I do not use it to predict winners.
I generally try to write up a paragraph on each bet I make. I almost never type up everything that I took into consideration when making the bet. I often emphasise numbers and trends in my writeups, but they rarely are the deciding factor - just one of the factors. If you're looking for a thoughtful analysis on a game, you won't find it here. Hopefully you'll find a little something that you didn't know, and give you more ammunition to pull the trigger on a team.
Unlike many handicappers, I generally leave other sports alone. I don't have the time to keep up with betting MLB, NBA, and the college sports every day. The NFL is a nice, leasurely one-game-per-team-per-week sport (excluding byes, of course). It gives me a chance to examine the games as much as I feel is necessary. I still bet other sports, and have success during certain times (beginning of conference in college hoops, baseball in August). I just can't spend enough time to risk too much money on them. Working during the day and betting baseball is a bit gruelling.
I do bet every game that I post, and for the number of units that I post. Even though my unit isn't a dime, I take betting seriously. I (usually) practice good money management, and I expect my initial bankroll to last the season. I use only three books (VIP, GameDay and Olympic for those of you who read this far), and I advocate using at least three for anyone who wants to take betting even somewhat seriously.
In summary, I believe that betting the first half line (as opposed to the game line) of NFL games can be advantageous. I hope to prove this throughout the course of the year, and in years beyond. I hope that my analysis will be a positive contribution to this board. This board certainly has been a good contributor to me.
Good luck,
PacMan
