Pac's Picks - Week 8

PacMan

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Oct 28, 2000
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2002 NFL Season To Date: (all picks posted at MadJack's)
1x: 5-3 (+1.7 Units)
2x: 20-6 (+26.8 Units)
3x: 4-7 (-10.8 Units)
4x: 1-3 (-9.2 Units)

Sides: 28-14 (+16.5 Units)
Totals: 2-5 (-8.0 Units)
Parlays: 0-0 (+0.0 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 30-19 (+8.5 Units)

Last Week: 3-2 (+0.6 Units)

As I'm growing in my confidence at picking first half sides, I will be playing more 3x and 4x picks. That's 3% and 4% of my bankroll, so it's still fairly conservative...

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY
1st Half Line: Oakland -1, O/U 28.0

I have to admit, this game was tougher for me to handicap than I expected. I spent a fair amount of time trying to justify a wager on Oakland. They are still a great team, and since they are coming off of two losses, I don't see them taking anything for granted. Trent Green is having a tremendous year. but I can't believe that it will continue forever. I remember watching him last year on a couple of occasions, and he looked like Quincy Carter, maybe worse.

There are a couple of problems that Oakland faces, not including KCs offensive stats. First, Priest Holmes is doing outstanding. He even tore up Denver. At this moment, he might be the best RB there is. Second, playing at Arrowhead has never been easy. Chiefs are historically a solid home team, and a great home dog.

PLAY: 1st Half Kansas City +1 (-110) 3x


CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA
1st Half Line: Pick em, O/U 22.5

Someone, please stop me from taking the hapless Vikings!

Actually, Minnesota has got a few things going for them here. Chicago has not been forcing turnovers, and is not running well. The Bears run D also is underachieving. The Vikings, on the other hand, are rushing the ball well. I think now that Culpepper doesn't have three Pro Bowlers on the offensive line, Tice can see that Daunte is not a Pro Bowl QB, and that he needs to rely more on the run. I think that the Vikings will be able to run effectively enough.

One other benefit - the Bears have been down at halftime five out of six games this season.

Scary fact - the Bears have already given up more first half points in their first six games than they gave up in the first half of all of last years games, 99-79!

PLAY: 1st Half Minnesota pick (-110) 3x - VIP line


ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS
1st Half Line: New Orleans -2, O/U 23.0

Let me start with the fact that Atlanta hasn't been down at halftime yet. They're outscoring opponents 74-29 in the first half of their games so far. A perfect 6-0 ATS in first halves.

Now, we see an Atlanta team without Duckett. This puts Dunn in at starting halfback. Dunn is having a terrible year, and some people have given up on him. If Dan Reeves gives up on him as well, that gives Vick more chances to do his thing, on turf. I think we'll see a lot of Vick, against a team with 7 defensive injuries rated questionable or worse, and a defense that has surrendered more yards than it's offense has gained. Take the points.

PLAY: 1st Half Atlanta +2.5 (-110) 3x - GameDay line

I will probably have several other sides posted tomorrow or early Sunday. I had early leans on 11 games this week :eek:
 

DjGuey

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Oct 26, 2002
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Re: Pac's Picks - Week 8

PacMan said:
2002 NFL Season To Date: (all picks posted at MadJack's)
1x: 5-3 (+1.7 Units)
2x: 20-6 (+26.8 Units)
3x: 4-7 (-10.8 Units)
4x: 1-3 (-9.2 Units)

Sides: 28-14 (+16.5 Units)
Totals: 2-5 (-8.0 Units)
Parlays: 0-0 (+0.0 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 30-19 (+8.5 Units)

Last Week: 3-2 (+0.6 Units)

As I'm growing in my confidence at picking first half sides, I will be playing more 3x and 4x picks. That's 3% and 4% of my bankroll, so it's still fairly conservative...

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY
1st Half Line: Oakland -1, O/U 28.0

I have to admit, this game was tougher for me to handicap than I expected. I spent a fair amount of time trying to justify a wager on Oakland. They are still a great team, and since they are coming off of two losses, I don't see them taking anything for granted. Trent Green is having a tremendous year. but I can't believe that it will continue forever. I remember watching him last year on a couple of occasions, and he looked like Quincy Carter, maybe worse.

There are a couple of problems that Oakland faces, not including KCs offensive stats. First, Priest Holmes is doing outstanding. He even tore up Denver. At this moment, he might be the best RB there is. Second, playing at Arrowhead has never been easy. Chiefs are historically a solid home team, and a great home dog.

PLAY: 1st Half Kansas City +1 (-110) 3x


CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA
1st Half Line: Pick em, O/U 22.5

Someone, please stop me from taking the hapless Vikings!

Actually, Minnesota has got a few things going for them here. Chicago has not been forcing turnovers, and is not running well. The Bears run D also is underachieving. The Vikings, on the other hand, are rushing the ball well. I think now that Culpepper doesn't have three Pro Bowlers on the offensive line, Tice can see that Daunte is not a Pro Bowl QB, and that he needs to rely more on the run. I think that the Vikings will be able to run effectively enough.

One other benefit - the Bears have been down at halftime five out of six games this season.

Scary fact - the Bears have already given up more first half points in their first six games than they gave up in the first half of all of last years games, 99-79!

PLAY: 1st Half Minnesota pick (-110) 3x - VIP line


ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS
1st Half Line: New Orleans -2, O/U 23.0

Let me start with the fact that Atlanta hasn't been down at halftime yet. They're outscoring opponents 74-29 in the first half of their games so far. A perfect 6-0 ATS in first halves.

Now, we see an Atlanta team without Duckett. This puts Dunn in at starting halfback. Dunn is having a terrible year, and some people have given up on him. If Dan Reeves gives up on him as well, that gives Vick more chances to do his thing, on turf. I think we'll see a lot of Vick, against a team with 7 defensive injuries rated questionable or worse, and a defense that has surrendered more yards than it's offense has gained. Take the points.

PLAY: 1st Half Atlanta +2.5 (-110) 3x - GameDay line

I will probably have several other sides posted tomorrow or early Sunday. I had early leans on 11 games this week :eek:

I wouldn't even touch the KC/Oak game. That game could be either a high scorer or a sleeper. Charles Woodson and Phllip Buchanon both won't play an the Cheifs pass attack is very good this year. Only other back that is doing better than Priest Holmes is Tomlinson, IMO.
 

PacMan

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Oct 28, 2000
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Minneapolis
Rest of the early games...

Rest of the early games...

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE
1st Half Line: Pittsburgh -1, O/U 18.5

Pittsburgh has won 5 straight in Baltimore. Both of these teams had a terrible start to the season, and both have played well recently. With Bettis out, I think Pittsburgh will run better. (Bettis is averaging 3.9 yds/run. Amos is averaging 4.8 on 44 runs, and Chris is averaging 6.4, but only on 7 runs)

As I said a couple of weeks ago, Pittsburgh came into this season as the AFC team to beat, and they still should be. Their three losses were tough games, and it's hard to blame them for losing them. Pitt comes into this game with a hot QB, three WRs, facing a suspect secondary. I think they will be successful on offense, and put up more points than more people think.

PLAY: 1st Half Pittsburgh -0.5 (-110) 3x - Olympic's line


TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA
1st Half Line: Tampa Bay -4, O/U 16.5

At first glance, this looks like one of those "two great defenses, low scoring game, take the home dog" kind of games. And while it could be, I see a major obstacle for Carolina - how are they going to move the ball down the field?

Lamar Smith is averaging 3.5 yards/run, and hasn't topped 4.0/run since 1997. He's going up against the #1 defense in the NFC, which is giving up 3.5 yards/run. Fasani is a mostly untested rookie QB, who performed miserably last week, going 6-18 for 100 yards and a pick, for a 29.9 QB rating. Plus, their problems at the kicker positon mean they almost have to make it into the red zone to have a good shot at hitting the field goal. I really don't think they make it into the red zone too many times.

OK, now how is Tampa going to score? Well, for one, I think they get more first downs, and win the field position battle. Second, I think they will make less mistakes. Pittman is only averaging 3.5 yds/run as well, but Carolina's D is giving up 4.3 - a big difference from Tampa's run D. Tampa clearly has Carolina beat at the wide receiver position, and can always dump it out to Pittman, who leads the team with 33 catches.


PLAY: 1st Half Tampa Bay -4 (-110) 3x


SEATTLE AT DALLAS
1st Half Line: Dallas -1, O/U 18

If you've been reading around the forum, you probably have already noticed where I stand on this game. I'm not going to repeat it all again. Seattle has been a horrible road team the last nine games. Their run defense is terrible.

PLAY: 1st Half Dallas -0.5 (-120) 3x

Well, that covers all of my bets on the early games at least. I'll be back with the late games.

Good luck.
 
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