Pac's Props - Week 9

[PacMan]

Pac's Props is a thread I started last week on Monday night. I may or may not continue it as the season progresses.

Last Week: 5-4-2 +2.2 Units

Sunday night's picks

Jimmy Smith Receptions
Over 5.0 +100 (6 Units to win 6 Units) - Olympic
Under 5.5 +110 (6 Units to win 6.6 Units) - VIP Sports

This one's a no-brainer. The only reason I don't want to bet more is I don't want to chance running out of money at Olympic.

Probably more to come.

 

[PacMan]

Another Middle Opportunity

Another Middle Opportunity

This one does have the likelihood of losing a little money, but is still well worth it.

Receptions by Amani Toomer
Over 4.5 -115 (2.3 Units to win 2 Units) - GameDay
Under 5.0 -110 (2.2 Units to win 2 Units) - Olympic

 

[PacMan]

And Another...

And Another...

Completions by Mark Brunell
Over 17.5 -130 (2.6 Units to win 2 Units) - VIP
Under 19.5 -110 (2.2 Units to win 2 Units) - GameDay

Brunell hasn't hit exactly 18 or 19 completions in a game this year, but still likely enough for me for the small risk.

 

[PacMan]

M Brunell vs. K Collins Passing Yards
K Collins -5.5 -110 (2.2 Units to win 2) - GameDay

This is a statistical bet. Jax is being slightly outgained in the air. The Giants are outgaining teams in the air by over 56 yards per game.

 

[PacMan]

Another Middle Try

Another Middle Try

Sorry for those of you who don't use the same books as me, but some of these are too good to pass up!

J Smith vs. A Toomer Receiving Yards
Smith +5.5 Yards -125 (2.5 Units to win 2) - Olympic
Toomer +10.5 Yards -120 (2.4 Units to win 2) - GameDay

 

[PacMan]

Total Sacks
Under 4.0 +120 (3 Units to win 3.6) - GameDay

At first, this doesn't appear to be a strong bet statistically. There have been 27 total sacks in 7 Giants games, and 30 in 7 Jaguars games. However, if you took under 4.0 sacks each game for both teams, you'd be 4-2-1 on Jaguars games, and 4-1-2 in Giants games. 8-3-3 looks nice to me...

Edited - forgot to mention book

 

[THE HITMAN]

Yeh, pac, I have the same dilemma sometimes. You hate to empty out one account & just shift it to another, the re-up & withdraw, etc. for a few $. But, they are sure $ , & something on the plus side is , well, something on the plus side. Worth it sometimes, sometimes not. GL...........THE HITMAN

 

[PacMan]

Yeh, pac, I have the same dilemma sometimes. You hate to empty out one account & just shift it to another, the re-up & withdraw, etc. for a few $. But, they are sure $ , & something on the plus side is , well, something on the plus side. Worth it sometimes, sometimes not. GL...........THE HITMAN

Don't know about you, but I do have one rule about middling. I don't do it where I can't either win both or win one and push the other. For example, I've seen +170 incomplete first pass, -155 complete. Obviously you win one and lose one, no pushes. I won't touch those (unless it's like +130 each way or something crazy).

I typically go nuts on those middles like the Smith bet, where losing money is not possible, and winning has a decent chance. There's about a 1 in 7 or 8 chance of Smith getting exactly 5 receptions, which pays me 6.6 units. Hard to beat that.

 

[PacMan]

Monday

Monday

Last Week: 5-4-2 +2.2 Units
Last Night: will tally soon, wasn't good

This is the second week of Pac's Props.

Monday night's picks

A Green vs. R Williams rushing yards
Ahman Green -8.5 +155 (2 Units to win 3.1 Units) - Olympic

The +155 is too tempting.

Brett Favre Completions
Under 21.5 (-120) (2.4 Units to win 2 Units) - VIP Sports

The guy's hurt. I think this line's about right for him being healthy. Remember, Miami's secondary isn't too shabby.

 

[PacMan]

Receptions by Randy McMichael
Under 3.5 +110 (2 Units to win 2.2 Units) - VIP Sports

He had three last game with Gadsden and Chambers out, and no Cris Carter in the game. What, he'll do better with them in?

 

[PacMan]

Sacks

Sacks

Total sacks in game
Over 4.0 -140 (2.8 Units to win 2) - Olympic

With both QBs hurt, and not so mobile due to those injuries, should be lots of blitzing.

 

[PacMan]

Ray Lucas Total Completions
Under 16.5 +130 (2 Units to win 2.6 Units) - VIP

Ray's hurt, missed a week of practice because of it, and now goes into Lambeau on Monday night after that Buffalo performance? I think his confidence will be shaky.

 

[PacMan]

Lucas First Pass
Incomplete +140 (2 Units to win 2.8 Units) - VIP

Favre First Pass
Incomplete +150 (2 Units to win 3 Units) - VIP

 

[PacMan]

D Ward total yards receiving
Under 15.5 +100 (2 Units to win 2 Units) - VIP

Good luck.