South Florida Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
Offensive coordinator Rod Smith runs a lot of designed quarterback keepers out of multiple-receiver sets, and for good reason. Redshirt freshman QB Matt Grothe has excellent athletic ability and reads his blocks well. Second, the spread sets create vertical seams by stretching the defensive front horizontally and they put pressure on the defense to replace a linebacker with a defensive back. Third, running Grothe so much forces the linebackers to respect a fake hand-off quarterback keep on every snap. As a result, the linebackers have to hesitate for a moment, making it easier for blockers to get into position at the second level and create seams for the back when Grothe hands the ball off. Fourth, there has been some instability at running back. Benjamin Williams is a walk-on that got the starting nod because of an injury and a suspension. Though he is quick and shifty, he lacks ideal power and the size to consistently carry the ball 20 times a game. Ricky Ponton, who served a six-game suspension to open the season, is bigger and more effective between the tackles, but he doesn't have great speed or elusiveness. The key for East Carolina will be keeping Grothe contained and adjusting its approach to the back that's in the game. However, that should prove difficult for a run defense that has given up an average of 4 yards per carry this year.
South Florida vs. East Carolina
vs.
When: Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Where: Birmingham, Ala.
Don't dismiss Grothe as a one-dimensional runner who is only playing because he can keep drives alive with his feet. He has completed better than 63 percent of his passes and he has the arm strength to find receivers downfield. His biggest weakness isn't uncommon amongst young quarterbacks: He tries to make too much happen in the face of pressure. However, it's unlikely the Pirates will be able to take advantage of this vulnerability. While the dismissal of OT Thed Watson from the team has clearly hurt the Bulls, East Carolina's pass rush has been one of the least productive in the nation. In addition, Grothe generally gets rid of the ball quickly and has the quick feet to buy time in the pocket when his first option is covered. The good news for East Carolina fans is it fields an experienced secondary and corners Travis Williams, Karey Ross and Markeith McQueen rarely get caught out of position. In addition, Grothe must be careful not to lead his receivers into coverage or put too much air under his passes when throwing over the middle. FS Jamar Flournoy is a big hitter who can punish receivers that come into his area and SS Pierre Parker is a playmaker. The Bulls' defensive backs must tackle well because wide receiver Ean Randolph excels at making plays after the catch.
East Carolina Offense vs. South Florida Defense
Much like South Florida, East Carolina runs a lot of multiple receiver sets and a fairly balanced attack. A key difference is they give RB Brandon Fractious rather than QB James Pinkney the bulk of the carries. Fractious is tough runner who shows good burst through the hole and the Pirates can keep him fresh by using Chris Johnson, Dominique Lindsay and/or Brandon Simmons. However, Fractious isn't dominant in any one area and he faces a very good South Florida run defense. Though the Pirates' offensive line has a substantial size advantage over the Bulls' front four, South Florida's defensive line excels at getting into gaps and disrupting plays in the backfield. More important, LBs Stephen Nicholas, Ben Moffitt and Pat St. Louis make plays all over the field. They read their keys well, take good pursuit angles and wrap up in the open field. In addition, Nicholas and St. Louis have good cover skills and Moffit is an effective pass rusher. Defensive coordinator Wally Burnham doesn't necessarily have to go to his nickel package when East Carolina puts three receivers on the field as a result.
Pinkney can throw into coverage and he doesn't always secure the football when he runs, but he is a mobile quarterback who puts decent zip on his passes and has played his best football down the stretch. His favorite target has clearly been WR Aundrae Allison. Allison can explode out of his cuts when trying to get open underneath and he has the speed to slip behind the coverage. In addition, Phillip Henry and Steven Rogers complement him well. However, there are two reasons to believe the Pirates will have a hard time moving the ball through the air. The first is the Bulls have the depth and talent at corner to match up. Mike Jenkins is fast enough to run with any receiver and Trae Williams has intercepted seven passes this year. The second is Pinkney shouldn't get much time to go through his progressions. After all, East Carolina's pass protection has been just adequate and LOT Eric Graham, who missed the final two regular season games with a knee injury, is questionable for this game. The Bulls are in position to take advantage because freshman DE George Selvie is effective coming off the edge and Burnham should blitz his talented linebackers at times.
Special Teams
South Florida expected Mike Benzer to handle the place kicking duties at the start of the year. Unfortunately, he has connected on just two of his six field goal attempts. Though Delbert Alvarado has fared slightly better and has excellent range, he isn't all that accurate or consistent either. Justin Teachey generally gets good distance on his kickoffs as well as his punts, and he flashes the ability to pin teams deep. It's also worth noting the Alvarado has punted 10 times and QB Matt Grothe has punted twice this year. Alvarado placed four and Grothe placed both of his punts inside the opponent's 20-yard-line. Ean Randolph is one of the best punt return men in the nation and was named the Big East Special Teams Player of the Year. He is an elusive open-field runner who can change speeds, as well as directions, quickly. Keeping that in mind, a mediocre East Carolina punt return unit must play under control and swarm to the ball. KOR Taurus Johnson is fast enough to do some damage when he gets a seam. However, he hasn't been as productive as Randolph, and the Pirates have done a better job of covering kickoffs.
East Carolina PK Robert Lee has connected on five field goals beyond 40 yards, but he's inconsistent and he missed a 23-yard field goal attempt in the regular-season finale. Backup Ben Hartman has connected on three of his four field goal attempts including a game-winning 19-yarder in overtime against Southern Miss earlier this year. Keeping that in mind, coach Skip Holtz may go to Hartman before the start of the game or if Lee struggles. Ryan Dougherty handles the kickoff as well as the punting duties. He gets excellent distance on all his kicks and is accurate, so there is a chance the Pirates will try to keep the ball out of Randolph's hands by kicking away from him. KOR Chris Johnson is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball, and he faces an average at best kickoff cover unit. Steven Rogers, Travis Williams and Bobby Good have all returned punts for East Carolina this year. All three have good speed so the Bulls weak punt cover unit should have to play one of its strongest games of the year.
Matchups
? East Carolina WR Aundrae Ellison vs. South Florida DC Trae Williams
? South Florida QB Matt Grothe vs. East Carolina SS Pierre Parker
? East Carolina RB Brandon Fractious vs. South Florida's linebacker corps
Scouts' Edge
South Florida QB Matt Grothe has made his share of mistakes and it should surprise no one if he throws the ball into coverage and/or makes some errant throws when he gets pressured. However, he is a confident leader who bounces back quickly and has shown great poise when his team has trailed this year. There is no reason to believe he won't continue to do so and lead the Bulls to their first bowl win. Look for him to make plays with his feet when called upon to run and throw the ball to the open man when he goes through his progressions. It's also worth noting that WR/PR Ean Randolph should be Grothe's biggest ally. Randolph should take pressure off Grothe by giving the offense quality starting field position and producing after the catch. Defensively, South Florida's linebackers will smother the run and force QB James Pinkney to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load. Though Pinkney will play well enough to keep East Carolina in this game, the Bulls' pass rush and secondary will ultimately get the better of him.
Prediction: Bulls 31, Pirates 21
Offensive coordinator Rod Smith runs a lot of designed quarterback keepers out of multiple-receiver sets, and for good reason. Redshirt freshman QB Matt Grothe has excellent athletic ability and reads his blocks well. Second, the spread sets create vertical seams by stretching the defensive front horizontally and they put pressure on the defense to replace a linebacker with a defensive back. Third, running Grothe so much forces the linebackers to respect a fake hand-off quarterback keep on every snap. As a result, the linebackers have to hesitate for a moment, making it easier for blockers to get into position at the second level and create seams for the back when Grothe hands the ball off. Fourth, there has been some instability at running back. Benjamin Williams is a walk-on that got the starting nod because of an injury and a suspension. Though he is quick and shifty, he lacks ideal power and the size to consistently carry the ball 20 times a game. Ricky Ponton, who served a six-game suspension to open the season, is bigger and more effective between the tackles, but he doesn't have great speed or elusiveness. The key for East Carolina will be keeping Grothe contained and adjusting its approach to the back that's in the game. However, that should prove difficult for a run defense that has given up an average of 4 yards per carry this year.
South Florida vs. East Carolina
vs.
When: Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Where: Birmingham, Ala.
Don't dismiss Grothe as a one-dimensional runner who is only playing because he can keep drives alive with his feet. He has completed better than 63 percent of his passes and he has the arm strength to find receivers downfield. His biggest weakness isn't uncommon amongst young quarterbacks: He tries to make too much happen in the face of pressure. However, it's unlikely the Pirates will be able to take advantage of this vulnerability. While the dismissal of OT Thed Watson from the team has clearly hurt the Bulls, East Carolina's pass rush has been one of the least productive in the nation. In addition, Grothe generally gets rid of the ball quickly and has the quick feet to buy time in the pocket when his first option is covered. The good news for East Carolina fans is it fields an experienced secondary and corners Travis Williams, Karey Ross and Markeith McQueen rarely get caught out of position. In addition, Grothe must be careful not to lead his receivers into coverage or put too much air under his passes when throwing over the middle. FS Jamar Flournoy is a big hitter who can punish receivers that come into his area and SS Pierre Parker is a playmaker. The Bulls' defensive backs must tackle well because wide receiver Ean Randolph excels at making plays after the catch.
East Carolina Offense vs. South Florida Defense
Much like South Florida, East Carolina runs a lot of multiple receiver sets and a fairly balanced attack. A key difference is they give RB Brandon Fractious rather than QB James Pinkney the bulk of the carries. Fractious is tough runner who shows good burst through the hole and the Pirates can keep him fresh by using Chris Johnson, Dominique Lindsay and/or Brandon Simmons. However, Fractious isn't dominant in any one area and he faces a very good South Florida run defense. Though the Pirates' offensive line has a substantial size advantage over the Bulls' front four, South Florida's defensive line excels at getting into gaps and disrupting plays in the backfield. More important, LBs Stephen Nicholas, Ben Moffitt and Pat St. Louis make plays all over the field. They read their keys well, take good pursuit angles and wrap up in the open field. In addition, Nicholas and St. Louis have good cover skills and Moffit is an effective pass rusher. Defensive coordinator Wally Burnham doesn't necessarily have to go to his nickel package when East Carolina puts three receivers on the field as a result.
Pinkney can throw into coverage and he doesn't always secure the football when he runs, but he is a mobile quarterback who puts decent zip on his passes and has played his best football down the stretch. His favorite target has clearly been WR Aundrae Allison. Allison can explode out of his cuts when trying to get open underneath and he has the speed to slip behind the coverage. In addition, Phillip Henry and Steven Rogers complement him well. However, there are two reasons to believe the Pirates will have a hard time moving the ball through the air. The first is the Bulls have the depth and talent at corner to match up. Mike Jenkins is fast enough to run with any receiver and Trae Williams has intercepted seven passes this year. The second is Pinkney shouldn't get much time to go through his progressions. After all, East Carolina's pass protection has been just adequate and LOT Eric Graham, who missed the final two regular season games with a knee injury, is questionable for this game. The Bulls are in position to take advantage because freshman DE George Selvie is effective coming off the edge and Burnham should blitz his talented linebackers at times.
Special Teams
South Florida expected Mike Benzer to handle the place kicking duties at the start of the year. Unfortunately, he has connected on just two of his six field goal attempts. Though Delbert Alvarado has fared slightly better and has excellent range, he isn't all that accurate or consistent either. Justin Teachey generally gets good distance on his kickoffs as well as his punts, and he flashes the ability to pin teams deep. It's also worth noting the Alvarado has punted 10 times and QB Matt Grothe has punted twice this year. Alvarado placed four and Grothe placed both of his punts inside the opponent's 20-yard-line. Ean Randolph is one of the best punt return men in the nation and was named the Big East Special Teams Player of the Year. He is an elusive open-field runner who can change speeds, as well as directions, quickly. Keeping that in mind, a mediocre East Carolina punt return unit must play under control and swarm to the ball. KOR Taurus Johnson is fast enough to do some damage when he gets a seam. However, he hasn't been as productive as Randolph, and the Pirates have done a better job of covering kickoffs.
East Carolina PK Robert Lee has connected on five field goals beyond 40 yards, but he's inconsistent and he missed a 23-yard field goal attempt in the regular-season finale. Backup Ben Hartman has connected on three of his four field goal attempts including a game-winning 19-yarder in overtime against Southern Miss earlier this year. Keeping that in mind, coach Skip Holtz may go to Hartman before the start of the game or if Lee struggles. Ryan Dougherty handles the kickoff as well as the punting duties. He gets excellent distance on all his kicks and is accurate, so there is a chance the Pirates will try to keep the ball out of Randolph's hands by kicking away from him. KOR Chris Johnson is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball, and he faces an average at best kickoff cover unit. Steven Rogers, Travis Williams and Bobby Good have all returned punts for East Carolina this year. All three have good speed so the Bulls weak punt cover unit should have to play one of its strongest games of the year.
Matchups
? East Carolina WR Aundrae Ellison vs. South Florida DC Trae Williams
? South Florida QB Matt Grothe vs. East Carolina SS Pierre Parker
? East Carolina RB Brandon Fractious vs. South Florida's linebacker corps
Scouts' Edge
South Florida QB Matt Grothe has made his share of mistakes and it should surprise no one if he throws the ball into coverage and/or makes some errant throws when he gets pressured. However, he is a confident leader who bounces back quickly and has shown great poise when his team has trailed this year. There is no reason to believe he won't continue to do so and lead the Bulls to their first bowl win. Look for him to make plays with his feet when called upon to run and throw the ball to the open man when he goes through his progressions. It's also worth noting that WR/PR Ean Randolph should be Grothe's biggest ally. Randolph should take pressure off Grothe by giving the offense quality starting field position and producing after the catch. Defensively, South Florida's linebackers will smother the run and force QB James Pinkney to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load. Though Pinkney will play well enough to keep East Carolina in this game, the Bulls' pass rush and secondary will ultimately get the better of him.
Prediction: Bulls 31, Pirates 21
