Patriots attracting bettor?s attention as underdogs

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Patriots attracting bettor?s attention as underdogs

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC?s highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

Sportsbook.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.
New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he?s seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the ?look how smart I am? plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don?t worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System ? Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Unbeaten Saints seek signature win vs. Patriots

Unbeaten Saints seek signature win vs. Patriots

Unbeaten Saints seek signature win vs. Patriots

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -Bill Belichick and Bill Gates have more in common than their first name, the way Saints coach Sean Payton sees it.

``You have to pay attention to the Microsofts of the world if you're some day wanting to compete in that industry,'' Payton said this week as New Orleans prepared to host Belichick's New England Patriots.

``It's fairly common in business to look at groups or businesses that are having success and to pay attention to why teams are successful, and I think that exists in a lot of areas, not just football. New England's been one of those franchises. It's been one of those organizations that have found the right formula.''

Payton has been talking about following New England's model ever since he landed his first head coaching job in New Orleans in 2006.

Now the Saints are 10-0 and threatening, along with Indianapolis, to become the only team to go 16-0 in a regular season since the 2007 Patriots. Fittingly, New England stands in New Orleans' way on Monday night.

``I remember what kind of confidence we had taking the field as an undefeated team and knowing that if we played a good game it was going to be almost impossible for teams to beat us,'' Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. ``But if you don't play well you do get beat, as evidenced by what happened in the Super Bowl that year.''

New England (7-3) arguably needs to win this game more than New Orleans, which has a five-game lead in the NFC South Division with six games left. The only tight race the Saints are in right now is with Minnesota (9-1) for the top overall seed in the NFC.

The psychological dynamic coming into this game seems very much different from what the Patriots dealt with a week earlier against their division rivals, the New York Jets.

Earlier this season, Jets coach Rex Ryan famously said he would not ``kiss the rings'' of New England and its coach. When Payton and Belichick talk about each other, it's a lovefest.

Payton said Belichick is the best in the business right now, someone who'll certainly end up in the Hall of Fame, someone ``you worry about outcoaching you on the coin toss.''

Payton and Belichick have never faced each other as head coaches in a game that counted, but they have met.

When Payton's first season as an NFL head coach ended with a loss in the NFC championship, his consolation prize was a trip to Hawaii to coach the NFC in the Pro Bowl, which included a fishing trip with the AFC head coach. That happened to be Belichick, whose Patriots lost to Indianapolis in the AFC title game.

Belichick came away impressed by Payton.

``It was very insightful,'' Belichick said. ``From where that franchise was when he got there and everything they've been through and how much they've had to overcome and rebuild, not just on the team, but in the community and so forth ... what they've been able to accomplish from the top right on down has been spectacular, really. They have a great football team. There's no ifs ands or buts about it.''

Although the Patriots have faced the undefeated Colts, and lost, Belichick said he thought the Saints were playing the best football in the NFL this year.

``They really haven't been in a competitive game all year. They're basically running out the clock in the middle of the third quarter most of the time,'' Belichick said. ``There were a couple scores that were really close at the end, but the games really weren't that close. They've just been dominant in all phases of the game: returning kicks, covering kicks, offensively, turning the ball over on defense - 29 turnovers ... I don't think most teams get 29 turnovers in practice during the year. They're at 29 turnovers halfway through the season.

``(Defensive coordinator) Gregg (Williams) and Sean, they've all done a great job down there. You can't say enough about them.''

Only once this season have the Saints led by less than a touchdown in the closing seconds. Their average margin of victory is 16.5 points. They lead the league in scoring (36.9 points per game) and total offense (420.5 yards per game). At their current pace, the Saints would score 590 points in the regular season. The record is 589, set by the 2007 Patriots.

``They're one of the best teams in the league,'' Brady said. ``We see ourselves as a team that can beat anybody we play. Then again, we've got to go out and do it. It's much easier said than done against this team.''

Belichick raved about how explosive and dynamic the Saints' offense is with Drew Brees throwing touchdowns to everyone from Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey to former Patriots tight end David Thomas, who New England traded to New Orleans this season for a 2011 seventh-round draft pick.

As he searched his memory for a comparison to the 2009 Saints, Belichick mentioned the 2001 St. Louis Rams, the so-called ``Greatest Show on Turf.''

Incidentally, Belichick faced St. Louis in the Super Bowl that season, in the Louisiana Superdome, of all places.

``He did pretty good against the Rams, if my memory's right,'' Payton said.

The Patriots won 20-17. Since then, they have appeared in three more Super Bowls, winning two, and have missed the playoffs only twice.

For now, Payton, Brees and the rest of the Saints can only dream of realizing such sustained success.

``We're playing a team that you can obviously say is one of the teams of the decade,'' Brees said. ``That's the type of organization that we're kind of aspiring to be. ... So any time you play against a team like that, it's a big game, a big-time game, because you feel like, if you're able to go out and win these games, and compete with these teams, then you belong.''

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Preview: Patriots (7-3) at Saints (10-0)

Preview: Patriots (7-3) at Saints (10-0)

Preview: Patriots (7-3) at Saints (10-0)

Date: November 30, 2009 8:30 PM EDT

The New Orleans Saints' bid for a 16-0 regular season is about to face its toughest test yet - the only team in NFL history to accomplish the feat.

The high-powered Saints put their perfect record on the line Monday night in the Superdome against a New England Patriots club that nearly knocked off the league's other unbeaten two weeks ago.

The Saints have steamrolled through the league while winning their first 10 games, averaging 36.9 points behind quarterback Drew Brees and a dynamic offense that's seen 12 different players score touchdowns.

Such a run might seem unprecedented if it hadn't been done even better two short years ago. The 2007 Patriots also opened 10-0 while averaging an almost unfathomable 41.1 points. They went on to achieve the NFL's only perfect 16-game regular season, though their run ultimately ended with bitter disappointment and a 17-14 Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants.

While New England completed its unbeaten regular season, it also provided a cautionary tale on how difficult that feat is to achieve. The Patriots blew out their first 10 opponents by an average of 24.4 points, but that margin dwindled to 10.2 over the final six weeks with three of those contests decided by only a field goal.

A similar struggle could be in store for this year's Saints, who have taken advantage of opponents with a combined 37-63 record but must face New England (7-3) and NFC East-leading Dallas before season's end.

"We can learn a little bit from them and what happened to them and know you can't take any game lightly,' said Saints running back Reggie Bush, who expects to play Monday after sitting out last week's 38-7 win at Tampa Bay due to swelling in his left knee.

"Any given Sunday you can be beat by any team no matter what the record is. We're finding ways to win and no matter how much you win by or how (little) you win by, a win is a win in this league. ... Even the worst team in the league has great all-star players.'

The Patriots have more great players than most, especially on offense. Tom Brady has hit his stride after missing nearly all of last season due to knee surgery, exceeding 300 passing yards in each of his last five games while throwing for 14 touchdowns in that span. While Randy Moss has drawn much of the coverage from opposing defenses, fellow wideout Wes Welker has taken advantage by catching a league-leading 79 passes despite sitting out two September games with a knee injury.

In last week's 31-14 victory over the New York Jets, Welker caught 15 passes for 192 yards - both career highs.

"We play those guys straight up but their one-two punch got the best of us,' Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis said. "On one play, (Welker) did a triple move that was crazy, man. He's great."

The Saints' offense is also great, with depth a major reason for its success. Running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have rushed for more than 500 yards apiece, while Bush has scored five TDs and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a change-of-pace option. Leading the entire unit, Brees has thrown touchdowns to nine different receivers including six scoring passes apiece to wideouts Marques Colston and Robert Meachem.

"One of the things that our quarterback does well is read defenses and recognizes the weaknesses of defenses,' New Orleans head coach Sean Payton said. "We've had to insert some players in because of injury, and some of those guys have stepped up. ... A number of receivers have gotten their hands on balls.'

Though New Orleans is trying to establish itself among the NFL's elite and the Patriots have won three Super Bowls this decade, New England may also enter this contest feeling the need to prove itself. The Patriots nearly dealt Indianapolis - the NFL's other 10-0 team - its lone defeat two weeks ago, but squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in a 35-34 loss marked by coach Bill Belichick's failed fourth-and-2 gamble with two minutes remaining.

Perhaps the Patriots will be inspired by returning to the site of one of their greatest triumphs. This will be New England's first game in the Superdome since beating St. Louis in 2002 for its first Super Bowl title on Adam Vinatieri's last-second field goal.

"You never forget that day,' Brady said. "That was pretty unbelievable for all of us. A lot of us you know, your first chance to play in a Super Bowl and winning the Super Bowl, and of course the circumstances of that year with 9-11 happening and U2 performing at halftime - that was pretty unbelievable.'

The underdog Patriots may have been fan favorites on that day, but they know this time the sell-out crowd will be loudly cheering its beloved Saints, who may be poised for their first Super Bowl run.

"You can just tell by the fans how badly they want it,' said Patriots running back and Louisiana native Kevin Faulk. "They always did love the Saints. They just didn't have enough to cheer for.'

New England is 4-0 in its regular-season visits to the Superdome, and 8-3 against the Saints overall including victories in the last three meetings.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

NEW ENGLAND (7-3) vs NEW ORLEANS (10-0)

Game Time: 8:35 p.m. EDT Monday, November 30

Stadium: Louisiana Superdome Surface: turf

RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NEW ENGLAND HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 6 - 0 1 - 3 7 - 3 4 - 2 2 - 2 6 - 4 3 - 3 1 - 3 4 - 6
Last 5 games 3 - 0 1 - 1 4 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3
YTD vs. Div. 3 - 0 0 - 1 3 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 1 1 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 1 1 - 3
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NEW ORLEANS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 5 - 0 5 - 0 10 - 0 3 - 2 4 - 1 7 - 3 3 - 2 3 - 2 6 - 4
Last 5 games 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 0 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 0 1 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 2 1 - 0 1 - 2 1 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 2
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
NEW ENGLAND 1 - 2 1 - 0 1 - 2 1 - 0 4 - 2 0 - 0 4 - 2 0 - 0
NEW ORLEANS 4 - 1 0 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 2

TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

NEW ENGLAND
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/14/09 Mon BUF 25 - 24 W -10 -13 L -12 46.5 47.5 O + 1.5 G
09/20/09 Sun @NYJ 9 - 16 L -6 -3 L -10 46.5 45.0 U -20.0 G
09/27/09 Sun ATL 26 - 10 W -6.5 -4.5 W +11.5 46.5 45.0 U -9.0 G
10/04/09 Sun BAL 27 - 21 W -3 -2 W +4 42.0 45.0 O + 3.0 G
10/11/09 Sun @DEN 17 - 20 L -4 -3 L -6 42.5 42.0 U -5.0 G
10/18/09 Sun TEN 59 - 0 W -9 -9.5 W +49.5 44.5 38.5 O +20.5 G
10/25/09 Sun @TB 35 - 7 W -13 -15.5 W +12.5 43.0 45.0 U -3.0 G
11/08/09 Sun MIA 27 - 17 W -12 -11 L -1 46.5 47.0 U -3.0 G
11/15/09 Sun @IND 34 - 35 L +3 +2.5 W +1.5 46.5 48.5 O +20.5 T
11/22/09 Sun NYJ 31 - 14 W -10 -11 W +6 43.5 45.5 U -0.5 G

NEW ORLEANS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun DET 45 - 27 W -11.5 -14 W +4 50.0 49.5 O +22.5 T
09/20/09 Sun @PHI 48 - 22 W +0 -3 W +23 46.0 46.0 O +24.0 T
09/27/09 Sun @BUF 27 - 7 W -3 -6 W +14 51.5 51.0 U -17.0 T
10/04/09 Sun NYJ 24 - 10 W -4.5 -7.5 W +6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/18/09 Sun NYG 48 - 27 W -3 -3 W +18 49.0 47.5 O +27.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @MIA 46 - 34 W -7 -6.5 W +5.5 48.0 47.5 O +32.5 G
11/02/09 Mon ATL 35 - 27 W -7.5 -11 L -3 53.0 55.5 O + 6.5 T
11/08/09 Sun CAR 30 - 20 W -14.5 -11.5 L -1.5 51.0 51.5 U -1.5 T
11/15/09 Sun @STL 28 - 23 W -13.5 -14 L -9 48.0 50.5 O + 0.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @TB 38 - 7 W -13 -10.5 W +20.5 50.0 51.0 U -6.0 G

PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
11/20/05 Sun NO 17 NE 24 -10.0 -8.5 NE --1.5 45.0 48.0 U -7 G

STATISTICAL AVERAGES:

AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NE (off) 23.8 20 26 100 3.8 39 24 0.6 274 7.0 374 1.0 0.5 .00
NO (def) 22.2 17 26 118 4.5 34 17 0.5 204 6.0 322 2.0 1.0 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NE (def) 19.5 19 25 100 4.0 36 22 0.6 231 6.4 331 1.5 0.5 .00
NO (off) 36.4 23 33 135 4.1 33 24 0.7 306 9.3 441 0.6 1.4 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NE (off) 29.0 24 28 114 4.1 40 27 0.7 302 7.6 416 0.6 0.4 .00
NO (def) 20.4 18 25 116 4.6 37 20 0.5 214 5.8 330 2.0 0.9 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NE (def) 16.4 17 25 109 4.4 32 18 0.6 187 5.8 296 1.3 0.9 .00
NO (off) 36.9 22 32 155 4.8 32 22 0.7 265 8.3 420 0.9 1.0 .00

SCORING AVERAGES:

NEW ENGLAND (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.5 9.3 17.8 1.8 4.3 0.0 6.1
POINTS ALLOWED 1.8 6.0 7.8 3.3 7.8 0.8 11.9

NEW ORLEANS (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.6 15.0 22.6 6.2 7.6 0.0 13.8
POINTS ALLOWED 6.8 5.4 12.2 6.8 3.2 0.0 10

NEW ENGLAND (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.1 12.5 19.6 3.9 5.5 0.0 9.4
POINTS ALLOWED 2.7 5.2 7.9 3.7 4.5 0.3 8.5

NEW ORLEANS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.5 11.6 18.1 8.3 10.5 0.0 18.8
POINTS ALLOWED 6.2 6.4 12.6 5.4 2.4 0.0 7.8

VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
NEW ENGLAND 60 -3.0 6.0
NEW ORLEANS 53.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 54 2 under

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

MNF - Patriots at Saints

The undefeated New Orleans Saints will receive their toughest test of the season in front of the Monday Night nation, hosting the Patriots. These two clubs are a combined 17-3 on the season, as the Saints try to move closer towards locking up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Sean Payton's squad has been the story of the NFL this season, breaking out to the best start in franchise history at 10-0. The Saints own the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 420.5 yards/game, while lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 36.9 ppg. The oddsmakers have adjusted to New Orleans' scoring prowess, making the Saints a double-digit favorite in each of the last four games. However, the Saints have covered just one of the contests, coming this past Sunday at Tampa Bay, blowing out the Bucs, 31-7, as 10 ?-point road 'chalk.'

New Orleans has been money this season as a single-digit favorite, compiling a 5-0 SU/ATS when laying less than nine points. Breaking that down further, that record may be a bit deceiving. No question it is tough to win on the road in the NFL, but three of those victories came at Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Miami.

The 48-22 victory in Week 2 at Philadelphia was impressive, but it did come against Eagles backup QB Kevin Kolb, as Donovan McNabb was out with bruised ribs. The following week, the Saints trampled the Bills, 27-7, as Terrell Owens was held without a catch, while the Bills' lone touchdown came on a fake field goal. Probably the most eye-opening win came at Miami in Week 7 as the Saints rallied from a 24-3 deficit to shock the Dolphins, 46-34, while shocking New Orleans backers who cashed as six-point road favorites.

The Saints are led by Drew Brees and his 22 touchdown tosses, but amazingly, New Orleans has a balanced offensive attack. Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush have combined for 14 rushing touchdowns, while the Saints rank fifth in the league on the ground, averaging 154.3 yards/game.

The Patriots are one of four AFC teams with seven victories (Broncos at 7-4 with Thursday victory over Giants), as the second seed in the conference is still up for grabs. New England has just about finished its home schedule, winning all six games at Gillette Stadium. The road, on the other hand, hasn't been as kind to Bill Belichick's team. The Pats are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS away from Foxboro, and that lone win didn't even come in this country, as New England blasted Tampa Bay in London, 35-7.

In all fairness, the last two losses on the road were games that the Patriots gave away. Back in Week 5 at Denver, the Pats squandered a 17-7 halftime lead, as the Broncos rallied for a 20-17 overtime victory in their brown and yellow throwback uniforms. Fast forward to Week 10 at Indianapolis, the fourth down call heard 'round the world, as Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Patriots' 28 and failed. Peyton Manning led the Colts down for the go-ahead touchdown and kept Indianapolis unbeaten with a 35-34 shocker.

Earlier it was mentioned that the Saints own the top offense in the league. Nipping on New Orleans' heels is New England, as the Pats are averaging 416.1 yards/game, which ranks second in the NFL. Tom Brady is currently one of three quarterbacks that have amassed over 3,000 yards this season, with Manning and Aaron Rodgers just ahead of Brady.

Those numbers haven't translated into large totals for New England, as the Patriots have seen totals listed at 46 or below in seven of ten games. Back in 2007, when the Pats owned the greatest single-season offensive numbers of all-time, there were six games that had a total listed in the 50's. Only two of those games finished 'over' the total, and coincidentally they were both against NFC teams, a 48-27 victory at Dallas and a 31-28 squeaker over Philadelphia.

The Monday Night 'over' trend has taken a nosedive recently, as the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three weeks. The last 'over' on Monday Night came at the Superdome, when the Saints held off the Falcons, 35-27, in Week 8, eclipsing the total of 56. Since 2007, New England has been showcased on Monday just four times, including the 25-24 close call in this year's season opener against Buffalo. Perhaps the most memorable Monday Night game in the last three seasons for the Patriots was their late rally at Baltimore in '07, staving off the Ravens, 27-24 as 19-point favorites.

The Patriots have won 17 straight regular season games against the NFC, dating back to 2005, as the last team to knock off New England prior to the playoffs was Carolina in Week 2 four seasons ago. Of course, in the midst of this nice winning streak, notice the "regular season" caveat, as the Pats were tripped up by the Giants in Super Bowl 42 back in 2007

Capper Bruce Marshall feels betting the total may be worth a strong consideration, "This looks like one where the Saints might not get over the hump, although I actually might prefer the "over" (despite that bloated total). Expect an enhanced pace and tempo as Brady goes after an injured Saints secondary, while Brees & Co. will be treating each possession in must-score mode. The fact the Saints have been a bit careless with the ball over the past month increases the chances of a defensive or a cheaper score distorting the total on Monday night."

Marshall has found several solid 'over' trends in each team's direction, "Both have been trending 'over' in this role, with the Patriots going 'over' 14-9 the last 23 away from home, the Saints finishing 'over' 14-4 the last 18 at the Superdome, and the 'over' hitting in 21 of the last 31 overall for New Orleans since late '07."

Fellow capper Nelson has found several interesting nuggets on the strength of each teams' resumes, "Much is being made of the easy schedule that the Saints have faced, having only defeated two winning teams all year. While New England has faced a tougher overall schedule, the Patriots have zero wins against winning teams, having lost to both Denver and Indianapolis. The best wins for the Patriots came against 5-5 Atlanta, 5-5 Baltimore, and 5-5 Miami, and the Saints have defeated two of those teams as well. New England also has failed to win a true road game this season, as its only win away from home came against Tampa Bay in London."

Both squads are coming off different hurdles the last two weeks, and according to Nelson, the advantage may lie with New Orleans in that respect. "The Saints have some concerns on defense, but this will be the biggest game of the season by far after slugging through games against lousy teams the past two weeks. New England has played Indianapolis in a huge national TV contest, and then faced the Jets in a critical division revenge game which will make it tough to get up for yet another huge test. While going against the Patriots is never an ideal situation, taking the Saints as a very small favorite at home has value this week and this is a team that has found ways to win, and usually win convincingly even with horrible starts in several recent games. There will not be a lack of intensity or flat performance out of the gate this week," says Nelson.

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetEd.com says this game will definitely pique the public's interest. "This will be our most popular game of the year. Big action games like this usually brings solid two-way action. It's crucial to the book's earn percentage to hold a single number for as long as possible. Unnecessary line movement creates a wider lose margin. So don't expect much movement to this line," says Scott.

This line has seen change throughout the week, as Scott and his team has needed to make the necessary changes, "The line opened with the Saints -3 (+110), but quickly changed to Saints -2. The total dropped a half-point to 55 ? since opening. The total however will see some flux. This is a relatively high starting number for an NFL total, which will cause the books to quickly react to incoming 'under' money."

The Saints are currently two-point favorites in most outfits, while the total is slowly climbing into the 57 range.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Colossal battle in Big Easy

Colossal battle in Big Easy

Colossal battle in Big Easy

Colossal battle in Big Easy New Orleans is the site for perhaps the Game of the Year as the Saints host the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football.

New Orleans (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) is a two-point home favorite with an Over/Under of 56 ?-points. ESPN is thrilled to have this telecast at 8:30 pm ET.

Note that the ?over? is 14-3-1 in New Orleans? last 18 home games. The ?over? is 8-2-1 in New England?s last 11 games on field turf.

New Orleans is feeling the pressure as they go for an undefeated season. The Saints did win at awful Tampa Bay last week 38-7, but were 0-3 ATS in the three games before that.

New Orleans? offense is tops in the league at 410.7 YPG and 28.9 PPG. Quarterback Drew Brees is a flat-out killer in cleats and he can throw on any secondary.

The question in this game is the New Orleans? defense. They?re improved at 17th in the league overall, but they gave up 434 total yards to lowly St. Louis two games ago, and they seem to be wearing down as the season progresses. That?s not a good sign going against powerful New England.

The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. They are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with New England, the latest in 2005.

Patriots need a road win

New England (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) has only played four of its 10 games away from home. One was a neutral site game in London. The Pats are 0-3 straight-up (SU) and 0-2-1 ATS in true road games this season.

One of those games was two weeks ago at Indianapolis. The Patriots went into Indy on Sunday night and dominated the game until the fourth quarter. That?s when a huge Colts? comeback, plus a terrible coaching decision by Bill Belichick, handed Indy the win. That game still weighs on New England?s mind.

The Patriots? offense revolves around Tom Brady and the second rated passing attack (302.3 YPG). They also have the ability for a balanced rushing attack with Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris (questionable with a knee).

Running the ball would keep Brees on the sidelines and quiet the crowd. However, the Saints are banged up at cornerback, so expect Brady to be throwing early and often. This should be a high scoring game.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Public fading the Saints

Public fading the Saints

Public fading the Saints
November 27, 2009
By SPORTSBETTING.COM
There have never been two undefeated teams this late in an NFL season, so the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts are in some uncharted waters?uncharted for them and for the league. Both will face significant challenges in this week?s matchups, with the Saints having the bigger test.
It seems sort of fitting that New Orleans is hosting the New England Patriots on Monday night, in what will be one of the largest wagered on games of the year. After all, the Saints are aiming for a 16-0 regular season this year (and better including the playoffs), while the Patriots went 16-0 during the 2007 regular season.

The game will take place at the Superdome, with online sportsbooks currently sporting a line of 1.5 on the home team. This game opened with New Orleans as a 3-point favorite, but the sports betting community has been lining up on the Patriots most of the week, feeling they have the team to deal Drew Brees and crew their first loss. The Over/Under line is at an eye-popping 57, the highest line of the season so far.

Both teams can put up points, but hitting 57 or more means each side has to hit the scoreboard on most of their possessions?could happen with these two potent offenses facing defenses with some holes.

New Orleans has a record of 7 overs and 3 unders in their last 10 home games.

The Saints are a tough team to beat at home, as they boast a mark of 9-1 straight up in the last 10 and are 7-3 ATS over that stretch. But the Pats can brag about their road record, as they?ve put together a mark of 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games.

Looking at these two in head-to-head matchups, the Saints are 6-1 ATS the last seven times they?ve met, but bear in mind very few of those games were recent, as it dates all the way back to 1986.

These games have produced 6 overs and 1 under.

The Saints have been profitable when favored by 2-points or less, going 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine in that situation, with a notable 10 overs and 1 under in those games.

SPORTSBETTING.com is reporting 72% of the action so far is on the road team Patriots.

As referenced above, the boys from the Bayou aren?t the only ones taking aim at perfection as the Indianapolis Colts are also 10-0.

The Colts will look to go 11-0 with a road game against the Houston Texans?Indy is a 3.5-point road fave with the Over/Under established at 48.

Indianapolis has dominated Houston in seven road games on the scoreboard, going 6-1 straight up, but bettors care about ATS numbers, and there Houston has the edge. The Texans hold a 5-2 ATS record in those seven meetings.

The last eight times these two have met, whether in Houston or Indianapolis, have resulted in a lopsided straight up win mark for the Colts (7-1 straight up), but like above, Houston has been adept at covering the spread vs. this divisional rival. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in those eight games.

These two have a record of 7 overs and 1 under the last eight times they?ve faced each other.

Houston is 7-3 both SU and ATS in its last 10 games when an underdog of 4-points or less.

Indy is 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU in its last 10 road games overall.

Bettors are split so far on this one, as 56% of the action has come in on the Colts.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Patriots at Saints

Patriots at Saints

Patriots at Saints

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 56.5)

The last team to have an undefeated regular season looks to end the Saints' attempt at perfection Monday night in the Big Easy.

Tom Brady and the 7-3 Patriots roll into the Superdome for a clash with Drew Brees and the 10-0 Saints. The game features the top two offenses in the NFL, with both units averaging more than 400 yards per game.

Line movement

The Saints opened as 3-point favorites, but heavy action on the Patriots forced some books to move New Orleans to as low as 1-point chalk. The posted total of 55.5 has moved to 56.5, with the majority of bets coming in on the over.

Injury report

New Orleans has been banged up a bit in recent weeks, but hopes to have three significant starters back in the lineup this week. Running back Reggie Bush (knee), cornerback Jabari Greer (groin) and defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) are all listed as probable on the team's injury report.

The Pats aren't expected to be missing any of their star players Monday, though a number of players were limited in practice drills this week. Tackle Matt Light, cornerback Shawn Springs and running back Sammy Morris are all listed as questionable.

Saints keep marching in

The Saints continue to light up the scoreboard, leading the league with an average of 36.4 points per game. New Orleans has not been held to less than 24 points in its first 10 games, eclipsing the 40-point plateau four times.

Oddsmakers have caught on, however. Despite putting up 30, 28 and 38 points the past three weeks, New Orleans has gone under in two of those games. The lone over in that span came by half a point, a 28-23 victory over the Rams two weeks ago.

The Saints are also 1-3 against the spread in their last four contests.

Brady's back

Early in the season, there were questions about how long it would take Pats QB Tom Brady to shake off the rust after missing nearly all last season with a knee injury. No one's asking those questions anymore.

After throwing for 300 yards only once in his first five games, the Michigan alum has tossed for 300-plus yards in each of his past five contests, with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.

?I think we?re obviously playing a lot better football as a unit,? Brady said. ?My job is pretty simple when they block the way they block and Randy (Moss) and Wes (Welker) are out there doing their thing.?

In the spotlight

Playing in front of a national audience is nothing new for the Patriots. Including playoffs, New England has been on national TV 20 times in the past four seasons. The Patriots have won 11 of those contests, going 11-8-1 ATS and 10-8-2 over/under.

New Orleans has been in the national spotlight only 12 times in that span, going 7-5 straight up and 5-6-1 ATS. Nine of those 12 games went over the total.

No lead is safe

Halftime leads haven't always been safe for the Patriots this season. In all three of its losses, New England held a halftime advantage before being outscored by a combined 47-10 score in defeats at the Colts, Jets and Broncos.

That could spell doom against the Saints, who have overcome sizable halftime deficits in two of their wins. New Orleans rallied from a 24-10 hole to beat the Dolphins 46-34 in Week 7, and outscored the Panthers 24-3 in the second half of a 30-20 victory in Week 9.

Trends

New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a favourite, and 12-4-1 in its last 17 overall. The Patriots are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games on the road.

The over is 4-0 in the Saints'last four Monday games, 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games and 16-4-1 in their last 21 games on field turf. The Patriots have seen the over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on field turf and 12-5 in their last 17 games as an underdog.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Preview:
New England at New Orleans
When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, November 30, 2009
Where: Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The New Orleans Saints are ranked 1 on offense, averaging 420.6 yards per game. The Saints are averaging 155.3 yards rushing and 265.3 yards passing so far this season.

The New England Patriots are ranked 2 on offense, averaging 416.1 yards per game. The Patriots are averaging 113.8 yards rushing and 302.3 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The New Orleans Saints are 5-0 at home this season, and against 3-0AFC opponents.

At home the Saints are averaging 36.4 scoring, and holding teams to 22.2 points scored on defense.

The New England Patriots are 1-3 while on the road this season, and 2-0 against NFC opponents.

On the road, the Patriots are averaging 23.8 scoring, and holding teams to 19.5 points scored on defense.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Trends - New England at New Orleans

Trends - New England at New Orleans

Trends - New England at New Orleans

ATS Trends

New England

Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Patriots are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Patriots are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
Patriots are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Patriots are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 road games.
Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 12.
Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

New Orleans

Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Saints are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Saints are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Saints are 5-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

OU Trends

New England

Under is 3-0-1 in Patriots last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games in November.
Over is 8-2-1 in Patriots last 11 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 5-2-1 in Patriots last 8 Monday games.
Under is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games in Week 12.
Over is 12-5 in Patriots last 17 games as an underdog.
Over is 11-5 in Patriots last 16 games as a road underdog.

New Orleans

Over is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 Monday games.
Over is 6-1 in Saints last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 14-3-1 in Saints last 18 home games.
Over is 12-3-1 in Saints last 16 games as a home favorite.
Over is 16-4-1 in Saints last 21 games on fieldturf.
Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Saints last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 12-4-1 in Saints last 17 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 17-6 in Saints last 23 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 21-8-1 in Saints last 30 games following a ATS win.
Over is 13-5 in Saints last 18 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 20-8 in Saints last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 21-9-1 in Saints last 31 games overall.
Over is 18-8-1 in Saints last 27 games as a favorite.
Over is 47-21-2 in Saints last 70 vs. a team with a winning record.

Head to Head

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

NFL Preview - New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0)

NFL Preview - New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0)

NFL Preview - New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0)

- The NFL's two best offenses figure to dazzle and delight fans at the Louisiana Superdome on Monday night, as the New Orleans Saints put their unbeaten record on the line against the New England Patriots in a possible Super Bowl preview.

The Saints, who moved to 10-0 for the first time in their history with a 38-7 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, carry the NFL's No. 1 attack (420.5 yards per game) into Monday's contest.

An offense led by quarterback Drew Brees, who entered Week 12 as the league leader in touchdown passes with 22, is scoring at a league-best 36.9 point-per game clip and is also tops in the NFL in touchdowns scored (48) and rushing touchdowns (18).

The Saints are on pace to score 590 points before 2009 draws to a close, which would better the current mark of 589, set just two seasons ago by none other than the New England Patriots.

And though this group of Patriots hasn't lit up the scoreboard at the same rate that the '07 team did during its 16-0 regular season, New England will present an offense on Monday night that compares favorably to its NFC counterpart.

The Patriots rank second in NFL total offense (416.1 yards per game), fewer than five yards per game less than the Saints, and has averaged 37.2 points over its past five outings.

Signal-caller Tom Brady, who has rounded back into form after a serious injury ended his 2008 season in Week 1, has gone over 300 passing yards in each of his past five games, and has tossed 14 touchdowns passes to just four interceptions over that span.

In last week's 31-14 win over the New York Jets, which kept Bill Belichick's squad two games ahead of the posse in the AFC East, Brady was 28-of-41 for 310 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and more than half of the four- time Pro Bowler's completions went to one player.

As the Jets concentrated on trying to stop Randy Moss, Brady connected with Wes Welker for 15 completions covering 192 yards in the contest. Despite missing two games due to injury earlier this season, Welker assumed the league lead in receptions (79) with the career-best performance.

The main danger for Brady and the New England offense on Monday night is the quality of the defense it will be facing.

The Saints entered Week 12 ranked No. 1 in the NFL in opponents' completion percentage (53.2), takeaways (29), defensive touchdowns (7), interceptions (20) and interception returns for TDs (5).

New Orleans' defensive effort, guided by first-year coordinator Gregg Williams, has been led by opportunistic safety Darren Sharper. Sharper, who returned to the lineup last week after being sidelined for one game by a knee problem, leads the league in interception return yards (317) and interception returns for touchdowns (3).

The Saints further bolstered the secondary by re-signing cornerback Mike McKenzie earlier this week. McKenzie, who appeared in 63 games as a Saint from 2004 to 2008, was inked just a week after the team signed veteran ex-Baltimore Ravens cornerback Chris McAlister.

SERIES HISTORY

New England has a 8-3 lead in its all-time series against New Orleans, and was a 24-17 home winner when the teams last met, in 2005. The Patriots were 30-27 winners when they last played the Saints at the Superdome, in 1998, and are 4-0 in series road games all-time. The Saints have lost three straight to the Patriots since a 31-17 road win during the 1995 season.

New England is 5-2 all-time at the Superdome, including a win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, and with the losses coming in Super Bowls XXXI (vs. Green Bay) and XX (vs. Chicago).

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 3-0 in his career against the Saints, including a win while at the helm of the Cleveland Browns in 1993. New Orleans' Sean Payton will be meeting both Belichick and the Patriots for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

Brady (3049 passing yards, 20 TD, 6 INT) has been outstanding of late, finding both Moss (63 receptions, 8 TD) and Welker (79 receptions, 4 TD) with frequency and leading an offense that has become increasingly difficult to slow. Though Moss was held to just five catches for 34 yards against the Jets last week, he also scored his seventh touchdown in four weeks on a four-yard catch in the first quarter, and is now just 75 yards shy of his 10th career 1,000-yard season, and third straight with the Patriots. Welker has been a wonder as well, averaging more than 10 receptions and well over 100 yards per game over his last six outings. Running back Kevin Faulk (29 receptions, 1 TD, 192 rushing yards) and wideout Julian Edelman (26 receptions, 1 TD) have also been involved in the passing game in recent weeks. In the backfield, Laurence Maroney (455 rushing yards, 6 TD) has taken advantage of injuries to Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris over the past month-plus, scoring a touchdown in each of his last five games. Maroney posted season-highs with 22 carries and two touchdowns last week, amassing 77 yards on the ground against the Jets. Morris (knee) is questionable to return after missing the last five games. The New England offensive line has allowed a modest 14 sacks on the year, including two last week.

Williams, the Saints' defensive coordinator, has a major challenge on his hands both because of the strength of the Patriots attack and the battered state of his own defense. Cornerback Tracy Porter (knee) remains out, former Patriots CB Randall Gay (hamstring) is questionable after being hurt against the Buccaneers last week, and corner Jabari Greer (groin) has missed the last two weeks but is expected to play. The injury situation could put extra pressure on the undoubtedly rusty McKenzie and McAlister, with both expected to be active on Monday, as well as safeties Sharper (40 tackles, 7 INT) and Roman Harper (68 tackles, 1.5 sacks). The Saints pass rush, led by ends Will Smith (28 tackles, 8.5 sacks) and Charles Grant (28 tackles, 4.5 sacks), will seek to pressure Brady and make life easier for its secondary. The Saints' defensive Achilles' heel has been its run defense, which ranks just 20th in the league (115.7 yards per game) and allowed 119 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers last week. The good news on that front is that former first-round defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (15 tackles, 1 sack), who has missed four games with a knee injury, could return Monday. Ellis could join a run-stopping group that has been led by linebackers Jonathan Vilma (68 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Scott Shanle (54 tackles, 2 INT), along with surprising DT Anthony Hargrove (29 tackles, 3 sacks).

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

After playing the weak defenses of the Rams and Buccaneers over the past two weeks, Brees (2746 passing yards, 22 TD, 9 INT) and the New Orleans offense will face a decided step-up in challenge on Monday. Brees, an NFL offensive player of the year candidate, has had to put the ball in the air fewer than 30 times in each of the team's past two wins, but has been a relatively crisp 37- of-55 for 410 yards, five touchdowns, and two INTs over that span. Wideouts Marques Colston (44 receptions, 6 TD) and Robert Meachem (16 receptions, 6 TD) were both heavily involved in the win over the Bucs, with Colston's five catches for 74 yards leading the team and Meachem making both of his grabs count for touchdowns. Also making an impact was tight end David Thomas (16 receptions, 1 TD), the ex-Patriot who will be facing his former team for the first time on Monday. Thomas, who has posted his best two receiving days of the year over the past two games and taken a lot of the attention away from Jeremy Shockey (39 receptions, 3 TD), caught four balls for 66 yards and a touchdown in Tampa. Wideout Devery Henderson (31 receptions, 1 TD) should also be part of the gameplan on Monday after logging just one catch against the Bucs. In the backfield, the Saints have used Reggie Bush (277 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 6 TD), Pierre Thomas (584 rushing yards, 17 receptions, 6 TD), and Mike Bell (514 rushing yards, 4 TD) almost interchangeably in recent weeks. With Bush nursing a knee injury last Sunday, Thomas and Bell combined for 24 carries, 167 yards and two touchdowns (both by Bell) in the victory. Brees has been sacked just 13 times all year.

It figures to be all hands on deck for the Patriots secondary on Monday night, which means cornerbacks Leigh Bodden (37 tackles, 5 INT), Jonathan Wilhite (24 tackles, 1 INT), and Darius Butler (20 tackles, 2 INT) should also see plenty of activity, as will safeties Brandon Meriweather (49 tackles, 3 INT) and Brandon McGowan (63 tackles). Bodden was among the stars of last week's win over the Jets, intercepting rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez three times. Meriweather also posted an INT in the contest, and outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (33 tackles, 5 sacks) led the pass rush with two sacks and a forced fumble. After surrendering just 136 passing yards in the game, New England improved to sixth in NFL passing defense (187.3 yards per game). The team is 14th in the league against the run (109.4 yards per game), with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (30 tackles) and end Ty Warren (37 tackles, 1 sack) leading the charge up front, and inside linebackers Jerod Mayo (45 tackles, 1 sack) and Gary Guyton (56 tackles) cleaning up much of the mess behind them. Wilfork and Warren combined for 11 tackles against the Jets last week, while Mayo and Guyton posted six stops each.

FANTASY FOCUS

It's probably safe to say that this contest will settle a great number of contests all over fantasy nation, and there's little reason to hold back in using any of the Patriots or Saints principles, with the exception of both defenses, which need to take a seat here if possible.

The Patriots' main group of Brady, Moss, and Welker, and kicker Stephen Gostkowski will all contribute, and unless there are clear indications that Sammy Morris will return this week and be a factor, Maroney is a solid play as well.

On the New Orleans side, Brees, Colston and Shockey should all get plenty of work, and though they're a bit riskier, Bush, Pierre Thomas and Meachem are worthwhile starts as well. Bell and tight end David Thomas come off big weeks in Tampa Bay, but neither is likely to replicate their total against a quality New England team.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Although they're well aware of the challenge that the New England Patriots present, it is highly possible that the Saints will experience something of an adjustment period on Monday night. After playing the hapless likes of the Rams and Buccaneers the past two weeks, the notion of suddenly defending Brady, Moss, and Welker could offer a little shock to the New Orleans system, and how quickly the Saints adjust will determine whether the team can move to 11-0. The guess here is that the game of catch-up will be too unusual, and too challenging for New Orleans to withstand, and that New England - which needs this game more - will keep its foot on the gas in a way that the team couldn't in Indianapolis a couple of weeks back.

Predicted Outcome: Patriots 31, Saints 23

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

NFL Matchup - New England at New Orleans

New England Patriots (7-3) at New Orleans Saints (10-0)
Date: Monday, November 30th
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. (et)
Site: Louisiana Superdome (68,000) -- New Orleans, Louisiana
Surface: Sportexe Momentum
Home Record: New England 6-0; New Orleans 5-0
Away Record: New England 1-3; New Orleans 5-0
Versus N-F-C: New England 2-0
Versus A-F-C: New Orleans 3-0
Current Win/Loss Streak: New England 1W; New Orleans 10W
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: New England 1L
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: New Orleans 5W
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, Jon Gruden, Suzy Kolber, Michele Tafoya
All-Time Series: New England (8-3)
Last Meeting: November 20, 2005 (New England, 24-17 at New England)
Series Streak: New England has won the last three meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
New England Patriots
Sep 14 - W vs. Buffalo, 25-24
Sep 20 - L at NY Jets, 9-16
Sep 27 - W vs. Atlanta, 26-10
Oct 4 - W vs. Baltimore, 27-21
Oct 11 - L at Denver, 17-20 (OT)
Oct 18 - W vs. Tennessee, 59-0
Oct 25 - W at Tampa Bay, 35-7 (at London, England)
Nov 1 - Open
Nov 8 - W vs. Miami, 27-17
Nov 15 - L at Indianapolis, 34-35
Nov 22 - W vs. NY Jets, 31-14
Nov 30 - at New Orleans, 8:30 PM
Dec 6 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
Dec 13 - vs. Carolina, 1:00 PM
Dec 20 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Dec 27 - vs. Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
Jan 3 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
New Orleans Saints
Sep 13 - W vs. Detroit, 45-27
Sep 20 - W at Philadelphia, 48-22
Sep 27 - W at Buffalo, 27-7
Oct 4 - W vs. NY Jets, 24-10
Oct 11 - Open
Oct 18 - W vs. NY Giants, 48-27
Oct 25 - W at Miami, 46-34
Nov 2 - W vs. Atlanta, 35-27
Nov 8 - W vs. Carolina, 30-20
Nov 15 - W at St. Louis, 28-23
Nov 22 - W at Tampa Bay, 38-7
Nov 30 - vs. New England, 8:30 PM
Dec 6 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
Dec 13 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Dec 19 - vs. Dallas, 8:20 PM
Dec 27 - vs. Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
Jan 3 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/

http://www.masslive.com/patriots/

http://www.projo.com/patriots/

http://www.patsfans.com/

http://news.google.com/news?num=20&hl=en&newwindow=1&edition=us&q=patriot++football&btnG=Search+News

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

http://www.neworleanssaints.com/Home.aspx

http://www.neworleanssaints.com/Home.aspx

http://www.sunherald.com/sports/football/nfl/new_orleans_saints/

http://www.2theadvocate.com/sports/saints

http://news.google.com/news?num=20&hl=en&newwindow=1&edition=us&q=saints++football&btnG=Search+News

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Patriots action drops line in Monday night game

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

Line/total: We opened Saints -3 (-105), making the Pats +3 (-115). With the majority of the early action on the Patriots, we eventually went to +3 (-120) on the Pats and then moved off the number 3 and went directly to Saints -2. We were at 2 for about a day before going to Saints -1.5.

Since going to 1.5 we've started to see a bit more Saints money but at this point we're absolutely dead even on this game. We opened the total at 56 and with about 75 percent of the early action on the over, we're now using 56.5.

Key Injuries:

Pats - OG Stephen Neal has been upgraded to probable. RB Fred Taylor has been downgraded to expected to miss. OT Sebastian Vollmer, WR Julian Edelman, DB Shawn Springs, LB Rob Ninkovich, RB Sammy Morris, OT Matt Light and WR Sam Aiken are questionable.

Saints - LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Jabari Greer, CB Randall Gay and PK Garrett Harley are all questionable. OG Carl Nicks, RB Reggie Bush and DT Sedrick Ellis have all be upgraded to probable. WR Lance Moore is listed as doubtful.

Comments: We have two potent offenses taking the field tonight. The Saints lead the league in total points scored while the Patriots rank third. The Patriots have been money against the spread, covering four their last
five games.

The Saints started the season covering their first six games, but since that hot start they are only 1-3 ATS. The posted total of this matchup is 56.5 points, the highest total we've seen this season.

The last time we saw a total this high was the Falcons vs. the Saints back on Nov. 2, when we closed 56. That game did go over, with the Saints winning 35-27.

Prop of the game: Drew Brees (Saints) total passing yards - 308.5

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Bush, Moore out for Saints

According to an alert sent out by Las Vegas Sports Consultants at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, New Orleans running back Reggie Bush and wide receiver Lance Moore are "out" tonight against New England.

Lumi · Nov 30, 2009

Saints look to stay perfect
November 30, 2009
By Bodog

Monday Night Football doesn?t usually get a quality matchup, but that isn?t the case this week. ESPN has a great finale to the Thanksgiving weekend as the Patriots head to New Orleans for a tilt with the unbeaten Saints.

Fans of both sides have been falling over themselves to bet on the Saints, who are three-point home favorites at plus-120 juice. The money is slightly on the Pats tonight, as evidenced by a 55-45 split in our sportsbook. That?s a nice chunk of change, but not enough to move the line off the magic number of three. What might be the big story is the total. We?ve currently set the number at 56 ?, which is the biggest total New England has had in 25 years of bookkeeping. The Saints got up to 56.5 a couple of times. The last time New Orleans saw a total that high was in 2004 against Kansas City, but never higher.

We can point at three reasons for the total going into the stratosphere: offense, offense and the public?s love affair with the ?over.? These are a pair of the league?s best attacks as the Patriots are ranked first in offense and the Saints third. If you prefer just going off of yards per game, then New Orleans is on top of the league with 420.5 yards per game, slightly ahead of New England at 416.1 yards.

As is customary in all sports, the team who scores the most in a game wins. That bodes well for the Saints as they average 36.9 points per game, the best in the NFL. New England?s 29.0 PPG certainly is dwarfed by that number. A big part of New Orleans? success has been on defense. The Saints have returned five picks and two fumbles for touchdowns. Meanwhile, New England has just the two pick-six returns this year. The difference in offensive TDs, though, is a remarkable 40-31 in favor of New Orleans. That?s how the Saints keep beating the NFL odds at 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS.

New Orleans isn?t the most efficient offense, but they make up for it in volume. Drew Brees is picking up 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 12.6 yards per catch. Tom Brady is positively modest in comparison at 8.1 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per catch, although he also has just six interceptions on the season, three fewer than Brees. The Patriots have a record of 7-3 (5-4-1 ATS) with the ?under? at 5-4-1. The aggressive Saints, on the other hand, have seen the ?over? at 6-4.

The Patriots started the year with some question marks on its usually reliable defense, especially after LB Jerod Mayo sprained his MCL in the season opener. Yet New England has improved steadily since Mayo?s got back into its lineup in Week 5, giving up just 15.5 points per game. The Saints are still much better than last year, but they?re having some trouble stopping the run lately. They?ve allowed 23 points per game since Week 5 and have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four contests.

We?re in luck as both squads are in surprisingly healthy for this time of the season. It is expected that impressive rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer will miss Monday night, but he?ll be replaced by Matt Light, who lost his starting job to Vollmer after injuring his right knee in Week 5. Consider that a small downgrade the way Vollmer has been playing. Meanwhile, The Saints will be slightly shorthanded without the services of WR Lance Moore (13 catches), but they aren?t exactly hurting at that spot for Drew Brees.

There?s plenty to like about both sides in this matchup, but in a close game with a small spread, special teams appear to give the Patriots the advantage. Stephen Gostkowski is 20-of-24 on field goals this year and has the leg to go 50 yards or more; John Carney is 12-of-15 and at age 45 doesn?t crank them out like he used to back in the ?90s when he was with San Diego. Every point counts.

As usual, live betting is on the table for Monday night. ESPN?s coverage from the Superdome starts at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.

Patriots attracting bettor?s attention as underdogs

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