Pencilling in (Week 7)

[TheShrimp]

Year: 25-19 +5.13

Pencilling in:
KC +2.5
PHI -3.5
DET +3
NO -2
BUFF +4

If I can get ML's in the +155 range, I'll probably play KC and DET SU. The first three, I'm almost sure I'll play. I don't see those lines moving against me, so I'm holding out, giving them a bit more though.

There are only 2 home dogs this week, and I suppose I have them both. I was thinking NO might be a dog when I wrote my lines down. I actually had it at PK before MNF and thought they might slide to a 1 or 2 pt dog after MNF. I would have really liked that, but I think I still like them at -2. I think it might come back to PK before the game. SF is going to get action, I think, though they are nicked up.

Miami has not been great against the pass this year, giving up about 280 yards per game in their last 3. I think buff can put up 24 on them. But, buff has been real bad against the run. I don't expect the injury to fiedler to really hurt the dolphins.

Those are the early leans. I'll fill them in sometime later this week. I probably just like the first 3, though.

 

[TheShrimp]

Also looking at wash +8.

Don't forget that GB still has some key defensive injuries. That was an off-the-charts effort at NE last week while wash took it on the chin at home. That maybe skewed this line a little too high. Washington stands at 2-3 with the 3 losses against NO, PHI, and SF, three good teams. I don't think the Pack is quite as good as any of them. Wash beat TENN and ZONA, who have had their problems, but aren't bad.

GB's had two high profile wins, but was taken to the limit at home against ATL and CARO, losing to NO on the road. DET was in it at the end against GB, too.

 

[TheShrimp]

Final plays:
KC +3 (1.05 -> 1)
PHI -3.5 (1.1 -> 1)
DET +3 (1 -> 1)
BUFF +4 (1.1 -> 1)

[all at SIA]

Buffalo kind of scares me because their run defense is so bad. But Miami has given up almost 280 passing yards per game in their last 3. Buff has a legit shot to win this in a shootout though. That's not a play against Lucas. I don't think he's too much of a step down from Fiedler, but I still like betting against a guy in his first start.

I got off washington. One of my rules of betting a dog is never bet a dog you don't thnk can win outright. I think Washington qualifies this week.

I'll probably put some butter-n-egg money on them, but not a full pick.

DET is +130 on the ML right now. If I can get that up around +150, I'll be on it.

GLTA

TheShrimp

 

[TheShrimp]

Adding: SEA +5.5

This one just screamed at me when I first saw it, but I shied away till now. STL a 7 pt DOG last week, and now a 5.5 pt FAVE. They've had the craziest lines this year. If they lose that one last week, I bet this one is Pick Em. Same team on the field.

I also kind of looked at this one as, "what's the worst possible bet I see this week?" and STL -5.5 was what I came up with.

STL did get a lot of breaks last week. OAK was in a huge let down spot.

Final plays:
KC +3 (1.05 -> 1)
PHI -3.5 (1.1 -> 1)
DET +3 (1 -> 1)
BUFF +4 (1.1 -> 1)
SEA +5.5 (1.1 -> 1)

 

[TheShrimp]

Yesterday: 3-1-1 +1.9
Year: 28-20-1 +7.03

Should never had added that SEA play but a lot about that game really jumped out at me.

KC was another 14 point lead that disappeared for me. That's like the 3rd one in as many weeks.

Some fun money on the Steelers tonight, I think. I don't think indy is as good as their record may indicate. Steelers have been much better against the pass than early this season. Not a "posted play" but just what I'm doing.

Good luck.

TheShrimp

 

[jmizeus]

pittsburgh will be the hungrier team tonite...and remember they own football on monday's! steelers by 10

bettis is back on track and think he will run the ball down indys throat. see pittsburgh blitzing occasionally tonite-not like they normally do as indys line is pretty good. o/u @46 hard one to call but still think an over looks good gl

 

[TheShrimp]

They didn't own Monday Night against the Pats.

You know, I still think Pitt is a good football team. They got their ass PUBLICLY handed to them twice this year, but that's still a decent squad. They've given up like 180 passing yards per game over the last 3. I also think they can run against Indy.

We're playing on grass. Indy comes off a tough win at home and now goes on the grass.

Not a big play for me, but those are the things pointing me to Pitt.

I actually like the under, and I don't have a first half play yet. Maybe u23. I'm really clueless on totals though. 3 TD's and a FG sounds like a lot to me. Average of 32 ppg this weekend, with a couple of very low scoring games. Is defense starting to catch up to the new schemes?

Good luck.