Marvelous Mavs, setting Suns?
The Kings are dead. Long live the Kings.
No, not the Sacramento Kings. Or the Los Angeles Kings, or the Gipsy Kings for that matter ? and shouldn?t they have changed their names by now to the Romany Kings? I?m talking about the reigning NBA champions, the San Antonio Spurs. They finally gave up the ghost Monday night in about as dramatic and surprising fashion as possible. The Spurs lost Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals, as 3-point favorites, at home, in overtime, to the rival Dallas Mavericks. Those are five things you wouldn?t have expected to happen all at once in such an important game.
Unless you had faith in the Mavericks. Dallas blew a 3-1 series lead, then blew a 20-point lead Monday night before a 3-point play from the supremely talented Dirk Nowitzki set up the extra frame. But in the end, the consensus among analysts was that the better team won. Bettors are anticipating more of the same from the Mavs in the Western final. They?re pegged as huge ?330 favorites to dust off the Phoenix Suns, who are +270 underdogs to prevent Dallas from reaching the NBA finals. The Mavs are also 6-point home favorites (-295 on the moneyline) in Wednesday?s series opener.
Phoenix has already overcome enough adversity this season to make the team a compelling value pick. The Suns are prodigious 3-point shooters ? 40 percent during the regular season and 39 percent during the playoffs. That gives Phoenix the proverbial puncher?s chance against the best of teams, even without Amare Stoudemire manning the middle. Just ask the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers, each losers in seven games to the pesky Suns.
Dallas provides a different kind of challenge, and that may not be a good thing for the Mavs. The Lakers and Clippers both used their advantage in the frontcourt to nearly extinguish the Suns. The Mavs don?t have the same kind of beef in the middle, although they have found a way to combine the offensive skills of Erick Dampier and the defense of DeSagana Diop to squeeze 8.3 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game out of the center position during the playoffs. The question for the Mavs is whether to leave the big men on the floor to try to slow down the versatile Boris Diaw, or to try to keep up with the Suns by putting someone like Keith Van Horn at the 5-spot.
Whichever tack Dallas chooses, the Suns could have more flexibility in their matchups than they did against the L.A. clubs. Kurt Thomas hasn?t played since Feb. 22 because of a stress fracture in his right foot; he is expected to make an appearance in the Western final, although it?s not certain when or for how many minutes. Phoenix has gone ?small ball? in Thomas? absence with just seven players for the bulk of the playoffs, choosing to sit big men Brian Grant, Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Pat Burke. The Suns could afford to give any or all four men some more minutes against the Dampier-Diop combo. That would keep Diaw fresh for when Phoenix decides to push the tempo.
Dallas ultimately will have difficulty stopping Phoenix from scoring. Mavericks supporters aren?t too concerned ? they believe the Suns will have even more trouble keeping Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Devin Harris and Josh Howard from running up the score. The Mavs actually did the bulk of their damage against the defensive-minded Spurs close to the basket, out-rebounding the Spurs 29-27 on average and going roughly 26-for-32 from the free-throw line, matching San Antonio?s 26-for-34 performance. The OVER cashed in five times during the Mavs-Spurs series as a result. If Dallas can do that to the Spurs frontline, the undersized Suns are in peril.
It has been pointed out before that the end of the Nowitzki-Steve Nash partnership in Dallas was the best thing that could have happened for both men. We have seen Nash evolve into the league?s two-time MVP, while Nowitzki has been arguably the best player in the postseason (his 29.55 Player Efficiency Rating is second only to Tim Duncan?s amazing 30.36). ?Disco Dirk? grabbed 13.3 boards per game in the Western semifinal to Duncan?s 11.7, and even made more free throws (73-66 overall) than Duncan. So much for the soft Euro stereotype.
If Nowitzki and the Mavericks do get past Phoenix, there?s still the matter of beating the Eastern Conference champions before the Mavs can truly celebrate. Dallas is in second place on the futures market at +200 to win the NBA title. The Suns are last at +850; leading the way are the Detroit Pistons at even money, with the Miami Heat checking in at +350.
---Perry
BetWWTS
The Kings are dead. Long live the Kings.
No, not the Sacramento Kings. Or the Los Angeles Kings, or the Gipsy Kings for that matter ? and shouldn?t they have changed their names by now to the Romany Kings? I?m talking about the reigning NBA champions, the San Antonio Spurs. They finally gave up the ghost Monday night in about as dramatic and surprising fashion as possible. The Spurs lost Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals, as 3-point favorites, at home, in overtime, to the rival Dallas Mavericks. Those are five things you wouldn?t have expected to happen all at once in such an important game.
Unless you had faith in the Mavericks. Dallas blew a 3-1 series lead, then blew a 20-point lead Monday night before a 3-point play from the supremely talented Dirk Nowitzki set up the extra frame. But in the end, the consensus among analysts was that the better team won. Bettors are anticipating more of the same from the Mavs in the Western final. They?re pegged as huge ?330 favorites to dust off the Phoenix Suns, who are +270 underdogs to prevent Dallas from reaching the NBA finals. The Mavs are also 6-point home favorites (-295 on the moneyline) in Wednesday?s series opener.
Phoenix has already overcome enough adversity this season to make the team a compelling value pick. The Suns are prodigious 3-point shooters ? 40 percent during the regular season and 39 percent during the playoffs. That gives Phoenix the proverbial puncher?s chance against the best of teams, even without Amare Stoudemire manning the middle. Just ask the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers, each losers in seven games to the pesky Suns.
Dallas provides a different kind of challenge, and that may not be a good thing for the Mavs. The Lakers and Clippers both used their advantage in the frontcourt to nearly extinguish the Suns. The Mavs don?t have the same kind of beef in the middle, although they have found a way to combine the offensive skills of Erick Dampier and the defense of DeSagana Diop to squeeze 8.3 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game out of the center position during the playoffs. The question for the Mavs is whether to leave the big men on the floor to try to slow down the versatile Boris Diaw, or to try to keep up with the Suns by putting someone like Keith Van Horn at the 5-spot.
Whichever tack Dallas chooses, the Suns could have more flexibility in their matchups than they did against the L.A. clubs. Kurt Thomas hasn?t played since Feb. 22 because of a stress fracture in his right foot; he is expected to make an appearance in the Western final, although it?s not certain when or for how many minutes. Phoenix has gone ?small ball? in Thomas? absence with just seven players for the bulk of the playoffs, choosing to sit big men Brian Grant, Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Pat Burke. The Suns could afford to give any or all four men some more minutes against the Dampier-Diop combo. That would keep Diaw fresh for when Phoenix decides to push the tempo.
Dallas ultimately will have difficulty stopping Phoenix from scoring. Mavericks supporters aren?t too concerned ? they believe the Suns will have even more trouble keeping Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Devin Harris and Josh Howard from running up the score. The Mavs actually did the bulk of their damage against the defensive-minded Spurs close to the basket, out-rebounding the Spurs 29-27 on average and going roughly 26-for-32 from the free-throw line, matching San Antonio?s 26-for-34 performance. The OVER cashed in five times during the Mavs-Spurs series as a result. If Dallas can do that to the Spurs frontline, the undersized Suns are in peril.
It has been pointed out before that the end of the Nowitzki-Steve Nash partnership in Dallas was the best thing that could have happened for both men. We have seen Nash evolve into the league?s two-time MVP, while Nowitzki has been arguably the best player in the postseason (his 29.55 Player Efficiency Rating is second only to Tim Duncan?s amazing 30.36). ?Disco Dirk? grabbed 13.3 boards per game in the Western semifinal to Duncan?s 11.7, and even made more free throws (73-66 overall) than Duncan. So much for the soft Euro stereotype.
If Nowitzki and the Mavericks do get past Phoenix, there?s still the matter of beating the Eastern Conference champions before the Mavs can truly celebrate. Dallas is in second place on the futures market at +200 to win the NBA title. The Suns are last at +850; leading the way are the Detroit Pistons at even money, with the Miami Heat checking in at +350.
---Perry
BetWWTS
