The Preakness Bounce
Where have all the horses gone?
Yes, Barbaro looked like the second coming of Spectacular Bid in winning this year?s Kentucky Derby, leaving the rest of the field of 20 in his wake. But why are there only nine horses entered in Saturday?s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico? It?s as if the world of thoroughbred racing has already proclaimed Barbaro the next Triple Crown winner.
The oddsmakers aren?t going quite that far ? yet. Barbaro is listed at ?150 on the futures market to win the Preakness (+120 says he doesn?t), but he remains an underdog at +170 to pull of the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Many of the horses who ran in the Derby are skipping this week?s race in order to focus on the Belmont Stakes. At least taking the Preakness figures to be a lot easier than surviving the inflated field of 20 at Churchill Downs. The only other top contenders (and Derby horses) running this week are Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint; the remaining entrants are Like Now, Platinum Couple, Hemingway?s Key, Greeley?s Legacy, Bernardini and Diabolical.
The short two-week respite between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness is being cited as the main reason there are only three Derby entrants running this Saturday. That?s the fewest since 1980; it also clears the field nicely for Barbaro. However, there are some concerns over Barbaro?s ability to recuperate so quickly after winning the Run for the Roses, especially given that he didn?t race for five weeks before arriving at Churchill Downs. For that matter, Barbaro has never had fewer than five weeks between races.
Horseplayers have a word for it: bounce. You?ll probably hear that word a lot this week as experts pop up like the Soothsayer warning Julius Caesar to watch his back. Bounce (perhaps ironically) refers to a horse coming up with a poor performance on the heels of convincingly winning a race. The shorter the gap between races, the greater of a factor bounce can play. That?s causing many sharp bettors to steer away from the short odds Barbaro is getting and take a close look at the other two main Preakness contenders.
Brother Derek is getting plenty of buzz this week. There are, however, a couple of red flags with this horse, most notably his poor fourth-place finish at the Derby. Brother Derek is also more of a frontrunner, and the Preakness is historically a race for stalkers. Then again, Barbaro was a frontrunner in all his races before changing tactics at Churchill Downs, so there?s no reason to think Brother Derek can?t do the same, not with Like Now and Diabolical also promising to push the pace early.
Sweetnorthernsaint might be even sweeter this week at longer odds than Brother Derek. He wasn?t terribly sharp either at the Derby, finishing seventh, but the gelding is a stalker and has three victories under his saddle this year, including the Illinois Derby. Sweetnorthernsaint will arrive at Pimlico on Saturday morning after taking the van ride from Laurel Park; Brother Derek showed up Wednesday afternoon after getting a last gallop in at Churchill Downs that morning.
The three main contenders happened to draw adjoining post positions, which makes them an even more compelling play as a trifecta. Brother Derek (with jockey Alex Solis) is in the 5-hole, next to Barbaro (Edgar Prado) in the 6 and Sweetnorthernsaint (Kent Desormeaux) in the 7. The two speed horses, Like Now and Diabolical, are on the extremes at 1 and 9, respectively. That should make for a blistering pace, to the benefit of Like Now in particular. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin held him out of the Derby in favor of Flashy Bull and Jazil; by choosing the rail, McLaughlin gives a rested Like Now a chance to beat the favorites around the first turn.
Also worth a look is Bernardini, who took the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Apr. 29 and enjoys relative anonymity after not being considered for the Kentucky Derby. Bernardini has two wins in three career starts (none as a 2-year-old); still, only three times in the last 25 years has a non-Derby horse won the Preakness, and none since Red Bullet beat Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
The weather forecast looks good for the Preakness. The rain that is expected to hit the Baltimore area this week should peter out by Saturday morning, leaving just a 20 percent chance of showers. If the track does prove to be sloppy, both Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint have career wins in those conditions. NBC has the television coverage starting at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
Where have all the horses gone?
Yes, Barbaro looked like the second coming of Spectacular Bid in winning this year?s Kentucky Derby, leaving the rest of the field of 20 in his wake. But why are there only nine horses entered in Saturday?s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico? It?s as if the world of thoroughbred racing has already proclaimed Barbaro the next Triple Crown winner.
The oddsmakers aren?t going quite that far ? yet. Barbaro is listed at ?150 on the futures market to win the Preakness (+120 says he doesn?t), but he remains an underdog at +170 to pull of the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Many of the horses who ran in the Derby are skipping this week?s race in order to focus on the Belmont Stakes. At least taking the Preakness figures to be a lot easier than surviving the inflated field of 20 at Churchill Downs. The only other top contenders (and Derby horses) running this week are Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint; the remaining entrants are Like Now, Platinum Couple, Hemingway?s Key, Greeley?s Legacy, Bernardini and Diabolical.
The short two-week respite between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness is being cited as the main reason there are only three Derby entrants running this Saturday. That?s the fewest since 1980; it also clears the field nicely for Barbaro. However, there are some concerns over Barbaro?s ability to recuperate so quickly after winning the Run for the Roses, especially given that he didn?t race for five weeks before arriving at Churchill Downs. For that matter, Barbaro has never had fewer than five weeks between races.
Horseplayers have a word for it: bounce. You?ll probably hear that word a lot this week as experts pop up like the Soothsayer warning Julius Caesar to watch his back. Bounce (perhaps ironically) refers to a horse coming up with a poor performance on the heels of convincingly winning a race. The shorter the gap between races, the greater of a factor bounce can play. That?s causing many sharp bettors to steer away from the short odds Barbaro is getting and take a close look at the other two main Preakness contenders.
Brother Derek is getting plenty of buzz this week. There are, however, a couple of red flags with this horse, most notably his poor fourth-place finish at the Derby. Brother Derek is also more of a frontrunner, and the Preakness is historically a race for stalkers. Then again, Barbaro was a frontrunner in all his races before changing tactics at Churchill Downs, so there?s no reason to think Brother Derek can?t do the same, not with Like Now and Diabolical also promising to push the pace early.
Sweetnorthernsaint might be even sweeter this week at longer odds than Brother Derek. He wasn?t terribly sharp either at the Derby, finishing seventh, but the gelding is a stalker and has three victories under his saddle this year, including the Illinois Derby. Sweetnorthernsaint will arrive at Pimlico on Saturday morning after taking the van ride from Laurel Park; Brother Derek showed up Wednesday afternoon after getting a last gallop in at Churchill Downs that morning.
The three main contenders happened to draw adjoining post positions, which makes them an even more compelling play as a trifecta. Brother Derek (with jockey Alex Solis) is in the 5-hole, next to Barbaro (Edgar Prado) in the 6 and Sweetnorthernsaint (Kent Desormeaux) in the 7. The two speed horses, Like Now and Diabolical, are on the extremes at 1 and 9, respectively. That should make for a blistering pace, to the benefit of Like Now in particular. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin held him out of the Derby in favor of Flashy Bull and Jazil; by choosing the rail, McLaughlin gives a rested Like Now a chance to beat the favorites around the first turn.
Also worth a look is Bernardini, who took the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Apr. 29 and enjoys relative anonymity after not being considered for the Kentucky Derby. Bernardini has two wins in three career starts (none as a 2-year-old); still, only three times in the last 25 years has a non-Derby horse won the Preakness, and none since Red Bullet beat Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
The weather forecast looks good for the Preakness. The rain that is expected to hit the Baltimore area this week should peter out by Saturday morning, leaving just a 20 percent chance of showers. If the track does prove to be sloppy, both Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint have career wins in those conditions. NBC has the television coverage starting at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
