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Nov 2, 2005
NCAAB: Maui Invitational offers up a crystal ball

It?s a tough way to begin the season.

Imagine having to leave the soggy November weather and traveling all the way to paradise just to play in a basketball tournament.

Yep, for the teams that get invited, the Maui Invitational has got to be torturous.

Although technically a pre-season tournament, the three-day, eight-team Maui is the symbolic tip-off to the NCAA season which gives us an early glimpse at some of the top Division I schools.

The tournament, which takes place during Thanksgiving week, usually features three or four of the preseason Top-25. And many of the teams that play at the Maui end up in the Final Four.

In fact, every NCAA champion since 1983 has played in the tournament. Last year, the tournament winner was North Carolina (UNC), which went on to capture the national title.

This year?s Maui takes place Nov. 21-23, and will feature five preseason Top-25 teams: Connecticut (No. 2), Michigan State (No. 5), Gonzaga (No. 7), Arizona (No. 9) and Maryland (No. 21).

Although unranked, Division I powerhouses Arkansas and Kansas will also participate in the tournament. The eighth team is host Chaminade, a Division II school.

We currently don?t have odds on the Maui Invitational itself, but we do have futures odds on the 2006 NCAA tournament. So with that, let?s look at the odds for Division I teams that will appear in Maui.

No.2 UConn is listed at +600 to win the NCAA tournament, second only to No. 1 Duke which has the best odds at +500. UConn made it to the second round of last year?s tournament but lost to UNC.

Coming off a national championship in 2004, the Huskies were 23-8 straight up (SU) and 16-11 against the spread (ATS) last season. They tied Boston College for first in the Big East at 13-3 SU.

This season they?ll be without SF Charlie Villanueva, who got drafted by the Toronto Raptors. However, they?ll still have PF Josh Boone, PG Marcus Williams and SF Rudy Gay, considered among the best at their positions in college basketball. They also have one of the best coaches in the game in Jim Calhoun.

No. 5 Michigan State is listed at +2000 to win the tournament. Last season, the Spartans advanced to the Final Four, but lost to the Tar Heels. The Spartans were 26-7 SU (17-11 ATS) overall last season and finished second to Illinois in the Big Ten with a record of 13-3 SU.

MSU will have four starters returning this year including 6-foot-11 center Paul Davis, who averaged 12.2 ppg and eight rebounds last season.

Meanwhile, No. 7 Gonzaga is listed at +3000 to win the NCAA. The Zags made it to the second round of last year?s tournament but were eliminated by Bobby Knight?s Red Raiders.

Gonzaga finished last season with an overall record of 26-5 SU (12-18 ATS) and were the best team in the West Coast Conference at 12-2 SU. This season, many feel the Bulldogs will have the most talented team in their history.

No. 9 Arizona is also listed at +3000 to win the tournament. Arizona advanced to the Elite Eight last year but was eliminated by Illinois. The Wildcats finished last season 30-7 SU (23-14 ATS) and their 15-3 SU conference record topped the Pac-10.

Arizona had one of the most prolific offenses in college basketball last season, however they lost both Channing Frye and Salim Stoudamire to the NBA draft.

No. 21 Maryland is currently +3500 to win the NCAA. Maryland did not play in last year?s tournament, ending an 11-year run. Instead, the Terps advanced to the Final Four of the NIT where they lost to the eventual winner, South Carolina.

Maryland finished the regular season with a disappointing 19-13 SU record (12-14 ATS) and their 7-9 conference record placed them tied for sixth in the ACC.

This season, the Terps will have four starters returning including SF Nik Caner-Medley, who averaged 16 ppg and 6.2 rebounds per game last season. Maryland should make their way back to the tournament this year.

The other two Division I teams that will play in Maui are Arkansas and Kansas. We currently have the Razorbacks listed at +7500 and the ever-popular Jayhawks at +3000 to win the Big Dance.

Good luck with your bets!

Perry-



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