Phil Steele's Most Improved Teams for 2005

[taoist]

...just got my new 2005 magazine from Steele. Here's his list of Most Improved teams for 2005.... You will likely find some value betting on these temas, especially early in the year when most bettors are still remembering last year's team.

1. NC ST.
2. Houston
3. Penn St.
4. Oregon
5. Tulane
6. Rutgers
7. Kan St.
8. MTSU
9. Wash
10. Colorado St.
11. BYU
12. W. Mich
13. Kansas
14. Arkansas
15. Nebraska
16. UCLA
17. Mich St.
18. UL-Laf
19. Wash St.
20. Maryland
21. SD St.
22. Mizzou

 

[taoist]

Here's his list of Surprise Teams for 2005.... These are the teams that Phil thinks have a chance of having an undefeated season and making a run at the NC.... (He called the last 2 long-shots, not me....)

1. Purdue
2. LSU
3. Louisville
4. Fl St.
5. Cal
6. Georgia
7. Texas Tech
8. NC St
9. Oregon
10. Auburn
11. Alabama (long-shot)
12. Pitt (long-shot)

5 non-BCS Surprise Teams.... He says that these are long-shots to make a BCS game, but thinks that all 5 have a chance to run the table....

1. UTEP
2. Utah
3. Fresno St.
4. Miami, OH
5. BYU

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Just picked it up yesterday. I remember when the start of college football season was July 1 when Phil?s rag came out, but now it?s out early. Definitely going to make my morning time on the shitter a lot more productive.

 

[Scott4USC]

Good info Taoist and thanks for posting. I think Phile Steele puts out the best magazine but I think he is way off on this list.

5 non-BCS Surprise Teams.... He says that these are long-shots to make a BCS game, but thinks that all 5 have a chance to run the table....

1. UTEP
2. Utah
3. Fresno St.
4. Miami, OH
5. BYU

Hands down Fresno St. should be #1. They are returning everybody this season. I think they have a chance to upset USC. Hill has been looking forward to this matchup for 5 years begging USC to schedule them. Fresno St. will have huge crowd support at USC. USC also might be too full of themselves and could be one of those days where FSU plays exceptional because they are so experienced. I heard they have decent chance to be undefeated coming into USC.

 

[AU2001]

Top 10 jokes from all those lists:

1. Alabama going undefeated (only if LSU, Auburn, Tenn, and Florida get rained out)
2. Penn State most improved #3 (how could they get any worse???)
3. Cal going undefeated (they will have to play someone from a much stronger conference in their bowl game, not to mention USC will destroy them)
4. Florida State going undefeated (must have printed that before Wyatt dropped acid at the Dave Matthews concert and decided to take on the cops)
5. Oregon going undefeated (see above Cal)
6. Arkansas most improved (Matt Jones was their entire team for the past 2 seasons, he's gone now, how will they improve?)
7. Nebraska only at #15 (they HAVE to be better, the whole state will commit suicide if they keep losing)
8. LSU and Louisville are surprise teams (will anyone really be shocked if either of these teams makes a run at undefeated season?)
9. Alabama AGAIN (really, c'mon guys, this same team went 6-6 last year with a schedule that was softer than a twinkie. 13-0 is only gonna happen if they schedule Utah St. 13 times)
10. UTEP going to a BCS bowl (they will not let Mike Price near a venue that offers adult entertainment!!! It would be a PR nightmare for the BCS)

 

[Coug LJ]

I have the Sporting News magazine and they have similar thoughts on the upcoming season. I wouldn't bet on NC State going undefeated when their first game is Virgina Tech. According to the preview, they are shaky at QB and have to replace their star running back.

Purdue doesn't play Michigan OR Ohio State, so that is the rationale behind that pick. The Defense is supposed to better, but this team lost five out of it's last seven games.

I think both Cal and Oregon both have a much better chance of losing five games than going undefeated. Cal lost a ton of players, a number drafted by the NFL. Oregon should be great on Offense, but have been terrible on Defense.

Penn State recruited very well this year and have a strong Defense, but can't score over 14 pts.

I think Louisville has a reasonable chance, but it will be interesting to see how they transition into the Big East. LSU has a good schedule, but it's still the SEC, with a new coach and suspect QB. I don't like their chances.

Scott, I don't see Fresno State beating you guys. I was not impressed with their QB and a team is going to have to score at leat 30 pts to beat you guys.

A team I like is Florida. They have Tennessee at home and should be better than everyone else, especially if Florida State is up in the air at QB. Chris Leak has got a ton of talent. Urban Meyer turned down Notre Dame for a reason.

How about Oklahoma? Texas is their toughest game, but they seem to have their number. Texas A&m and Ok State are at home.

 

[AU2001]

A team I like is Florida. They have Tennessee at home and should be better than everyone else, especially if Florida State is up in the air at QB. Chris Leak has got a ton of talent. Urban Meyer turned down Notre Dame for a reason.

Florida is the team to beat in the SEC this upcoming season. They have the most talent returning and the best QB east of the Mississippi in Chris Leak.

 

[Coug LJ]

I have seen Matt Leinart plenty and respect him greatly, but it is hard to imagine a better NFL prospect than Chris Leak. I saw him in the Tennessee game last year and could not have been more impressed. Alex Smith was the #1 pick in the NFL draft, but I don't see Urban Meyer taking a step down with Leak.

The SEC has a lot of tough teams, but I could see Florida looking like butter on Offense. Some people question whether Leak will be able to run Meyer's Offense, but he moves great and looks like a more than capable runner. And, he can throw just fine.

Who wins the SEC West this year?

 

[AU2001]

Who wins the SEC West this year?

Why those Auburn Tigers of course!

Also, I agree with you that Chris Leak is the best QB in college football, but I just didn't want Scott4USC to write a page article about how Leinart is better.

 

[taoist]

Who wins the SEC West this year?

LSU Tigers.... Arguably the most talent in the SEC and with a BCS/undefeated type schedule.... While they catch both Florida and Tennessee from the SEC East, they get both of them in Death Valley.... Their 4 road games are Miss St., Vandy, Alabama and Ole Miss.

LSU has a good chance to go undefeated into the SEC Championship Game...and if they win that one, there's no way in hell that an undefeated SEC team gets shafted from the NC Game 2 years in a row....

 

[wareagle]

LSU Tigers.... Arguably the most talent in the SEC and with a BCS/undefeated type schedule.... While they catch both Florida and Tennessee from the SEC East, they get both of them in Death Valley.... Their 4 road games are Miss St., Vandy, Alabama and Ole Miss.

LSU has a good chance to go undefeated into the SEC Championship Game...and if they win that one, there's no way in hell that an undefeated SEC team gets shafted from the NC Game 2 years in a row....

when LSU gets a QB then you can toot their horn, but not until then

my picks are

secw

1.Auburn---8-3
2. bama----7-4
3.lsu----7-4
4 ole miss---6-5
5 arky----5-6
6 ms st---4-7

sece
1. UF---9-2
2. UT---9-2
3. south car----8-3
4. uga----8-3
5.kentcu---4-7
6. vandy----3-8

 

[taoist]

when LSU gets a QB then you can toot their horn, but not until then

Ryan Perrilloux.... Toot, Toot!


I can't say that I disagree with your bottom 3 in each division (other than SC over GA), but my crystal ball says:

sec east
Ga
Fl
Tn

sec west
lsu
aub
alab

...any of these five teams (excluding bama) could potentially play for all of the marbles, but lsu has the most favorable schedule. JMHO, bud.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Perrilloux isnt going to even start for them.

I would also add that I would hope that anyone who reads Phil Steal tkaes everything he has with a grain of salt.

 

[taoist]

...didn't say that he would start, but he is one of the if not the best fresh QB in the country. War only said to hold off on the toot, toot until they got a QB.... Well, they've got one now.

 

[Coug LJ]

If LSU can beat BOTH Tennessee and Florida ANYWHERE, that will be a helluva statement. I don't see it happening.

According to the Sporting News, Tennessee is #2, LSU #6, Florida #11, Georgia #13 and Auburn #16. Frankly, I think that is too many highly ranked teams in the SEC. And, LSU at #6 with their QB problems and a new coach is baffling. ..Maybe, I am too influenced by the Pac-10, but if you don't have a solid quarterback I don't know how you can win big.

I can't see Alabama staying down for long. If they don't make a splash this season, it may be curtains for Shula. They would have been betteroff with Mike Price.

What is bizzare with the Sporting News Preview is that five SEC teams in their Top 16, but rate the conference as the 4th best in the nation - behind the Big 10, ACC and Big 12.

I have also noticed that predictions, IMO, are overly influenced by schedule. That seems to be a very big factor in LSU's ranking.

 

[AU2001]

Perri-who?

I don't consider anyone a QB until they show up on Saturday and beat somebody. So, by my definition, Perriloux cannot be considered a QB right now. LSU has a much tougher schedule than Auburn, not to mention rookie coach. Auburn will have the most intimidating pass rush in the nation in Stanley McGlover and Quentin Groves that will keep either Russell or Perri-who on their back in Death Valley.

Coug LJ, if you think that is too many SEC teams in the top 20, ask yourself this question:
"Would you want your team (which I believe is Washington State) to play any of these teams?" NO

All 5 of those teams could be in the top 10 in my opinion for next season.

 

[Sun Tzu]

One issue with Auburn obviously will be offense as the whole backfield is new - not a good SEC recipe. Another is what they do defensively without that Chizak guy - I think he was pretty important!

 

[AU2001]

One issue with Auburn obviously will be offense as the whole backfield is new - not a good SEC recipe. Another is what they do defensively without that Chizak guy - I think he was pretty important!

Good point. Auburn will have very good offensive line and have a stable of 3 very good running backs (not Cadillac or Ronnie, but still very good college RB's). The key is going to be Brandon Cox at QB, because the receiving core are all returning. Cox is a former Mr. Football in AL, and has a great deal of potential, but I will not count him as a good QB until he shows up in September and moves the offense. But the defense is going to hold teams to under 14 on average next season. Chizik is totally replaceable. Auburn had a good defense before he got there, and they will be excellent again this year. Tons of speed at every position, and returning most starters from last season.

Auburn has a very good schedule for developing new offense, with the first 5 games at home. Georgia Tech in the opener will be key game.

 

[Scott4USC]

I don't know if I by into the Florida hype yet. No doubt Meyer is great coach but this is big time and he has never coached in a BCS conference. Good news is he inherits $hit load of talent and experienced and talented QB. But he still has to put in his system and if the SEC conf. is so tough defensively like many here proclaim, there will be a learning curve on his system and what works/doesn't work. Not too difficult to fool Mac Defenses or MT WEST defenses on gimmick offense but won't he be facing SEC defenses and FSU defense? Norm Chow, who many consider #1 OC in history of CFB, had ton of trouble adjusting his offense his 1st year in Pac 10. Many say Pac 10 is soft on defense although I would argue that. I think Pac 10 isn't the best defensive conf. but the complex offenses have something to do with the defenses not looking so great. Chow's gimmick offense didn't work in year 1 in Pac 10 and him and Carroll adjusted in off-season and tweaked it.

Auburn has a very good schedule for developing new offense, with the first 5 games at home. Georgia Tech in the opener will be key game.

You can say that again. :mj07: First 5 games for Auburn are at home. WHAT THE FAWK? On top of that, look at the first 5 opponents! WHAT THE FAWK?

Georgia Tech
Mississippi St.
Ball State
Western Kentucky
South Carolina

Perri-who?

I don't consider anyone a QB until they show up on Saturday and beat somebody. So, by my definition, Perriloux cannot be considered a QB right now.

I agree. On top of the Perriloux is an athlete playing QB and did not look very polished in the High School Army All Star game. Unless he improved his QB skills in less than a year, he is not ready at all. Unless you like a QB running the ball.

Also, I agree with you that Chris Leak is the best QB in college football, but I just didn't want Scott4USC to write a page article about how Leinart is better.

I have seen Matt Leinart plenty and respect him greatly, but it is hard to imagine a better NFL prospect than Chris Leak. I saw him in the Tennessee game last year and could not have been more impressed.

He doesn't have very good QB mechanics and often throws on his back foot. He is not consistent enough and mechanically sound enough for me to rate him #1. But he def. is one of the best QB's in the country.

 

[Coug LJ]

Great college football discussion. Auburn, I wouldn't mind Washington State playing one of those SEC teams. Hell, Boise State plays Georgia this season and Oregon State played LSU. Washington State played Ohio State in Columbus the year the Buckeyes won the National Championship. They also played Notre Dame recently. ...I tell you what, IF Auburn played Washington State last year, they might have got into the Orange Bowl. Talk about a joke OOC!

Seriously, I would love the Cougars to play a SEC team, preferably one of the better ones. Next season would be great, as the team should be competitive with most teams in the nation. A lot of teams want a one-sided relationship and will not agree to a home and away schedule with Washington State.

Hard to see 5 out of SEC teams in the Top Ten, next year. Off the top of my head, there is Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Miami, Florida State, Virgina Tech, USC, Texas and Oklahoma.

By the way, I visited Auburn in the mid-Seventies and was very impressed with the facilities. I later competed in the Pac-10 and no school was near what you guys had. Congrats on your great season last year!

Scott, Matt Leinart is more polished than Chris Leak, but Leak looks more mobile and that is what the NFL seems to like these days. Don't get me wrong, I don't have anything against Matt Leinart. He has done an amazing job for you guys.

While the Pac-10 is known to be an offensive conference, they send plenty of defensive players to the NFL. Washington State has a bunch of DB's playing in the pros and had the Outland Trophy winner in Rien Long a couple of years back. Our Defense beat up Texas pretty good in the 2004 Holiday Bowl. They had Vince Young, Cedric Benson and Roy Williams.

USC has had THREE 1st team All-Americans on the Defensive Line the last two seasons. Auburn sounds loaded there this season, but it is hard to imagine a better defensive line than what USC has had the last two seasons. Ask Oklahoma. ...Hell, ask you guys - didn't they shut you guys down a couple of years ago?

That said, I think I would have to go with the SEC as being the toughest conference. What's the buzz on Spurrier? Also, it seems like a lot of folks down there aren't too crazy about the Vols and Phil Fullmer.