Phil Steele's Weekly Notes.... 10/30/07

taoist

The Sage
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Phil Steele's Weekly Notes.... 10/30/07

Copied from his website....

We all knew about the strength of the Ohio St?s top ranked defense but taking on a top-notch Penn St D, the Buckeye offense rolled up over 200 yards rushing and passing and 453 yards of offense in a dominating 37-17 win. Once again the Buckeye D did not give up as many points as the score would indicate as PSU got a 97 yd KR TD with just 3:16 left trailing 37-10....

USF had a game of blown opportunities vs Connecticut. In the 1Q they missed 26 & 45 yard FG?s and trailed 3-0. UC got a 23 yd IR TD mid-2Q and led 16-0 at the half. In the 2H USF had a 3rd & goal from the 4 and was int?d in the EZ. USF blk?d a punt and could have fallen on it for a TD but UC managed to fall on it for a safety which cost them 5 points. USF had a tying TD pass with 8:00 left called back on a hold and then on 3rd & 10 Hill dropped a TD pass as he was being held and they settled for a FG. On USF?s last drive they had a 2nd & goal at the 1 needing a TD to tie but on 3rd & goal Grothe was sk?d and his 4th down pass was incomplete....

Washington led Arizona 41-26 with 12:32 left and actually had 415 yds offense in the 1H but fmbl?d twice inside the redzone keeping the game close. It came back to bite them as AZ rebounded for a 48-41 win. UA QB Willie Tuitama passed for a school record 510 yds....

Miami, Oh led 13-10 midway through the 3Q vs Vanderbilt but the VU D held them to just 30 yards on their next 3 drives while VU got a pair of TD?s to roll to a 24-13 win. MacKenzie Adams started the game over previous starter Chris Nickson but left with a chest injury and did not return and Nickson QB?d the rest....

Clemson RB James Davis said ?We?re going to win, guaranteed.? prior to the Maryland game then rushed for 129 yds. CU took advantage of a Terps team that made a lot of mistakes and was injury plagued and CU led 30-3 in the 4Q en route to their 30-17 win....

Delaware is a top-notch IAA team that came in 6-1 and they rolled up 581 yards offense vs Navy?s D. Navy had 506 yards but lost 59-52 which was the most combined points scored in a Navy football game since 1919....

S Carolina finished with a 31-16 FD edge vs Tennessee. Despite only being outgained 205-148 in the 1H, they trailed 21-0. The 2H was all SC but despite finishing with 501-317 yd edge they lost due to missed opportunities. SC went for it on 4th & 4 at the UT 4 and threw incomplete on a play when pass interference could have easily been called. After scoring TD?s on their next 3 drives, SC fmbl?d at the UT 17 and then was int?d at the UT 17 (4:05). SC nailed a 49 yd FG with 1:24 left to apparently pull out the win and UT fmbl?d on 3rd & 1 which looked like it ended the game but SC did not fall on the ball. In fact, new OL Jacques McClendon who replaced their inj?d LT, fell on it at the 26 for an 18 yd gain. UT missed the game tying FG but a false start had them rekick the 48 yarder which just made it through the uprights and SC missed a 40 yd FG in OT....

Ole Miss trailed Auburn in the 4Q 10-3 and started at their own 1 and lost QB Seth Adams to injury on the 3rd play but backup Brent Schaeffer led them to the Auburn 20 yd line with 7:07 left. On 2nd & 8 Schaeffer was int?d in the EZ and Auburn drove 80/9pl for a clinching TD with 3:15 left. Auburn did have a 420-193 yd edge....

E Carolina delivered in a 3 dominating 41-6 win over UAB. UAB starters never got any deeper than the EC 25 yd line....

Wyoming?s Karsten Sween did not start vs UNLV and Ian Hetrick hit 5 of 16 for 64 yds. Sween replaced him and threw 2 int?s early and UNLV had leads of 17-9 and 24-23 but WY went 63/9pl for a TD with 5:42 left to take the lead and LV?s final 2 drives were SOD at the WY 43 and 50 yd lines....

The SBC better take notice as W Kentucky topped 50 points for the 2nd straight week scoring on all 9 of its poss vs overmatched NC Central last week....

Toledo put up 812 yards, the most by any IA team this year in their 70-21 win over N Illinois. Aaron Opelt ret?d to the lineup after missing some games and hit 22-28 for 387 yards. It was 70-14 before NI got a TD with 3:00 left....

Kalvin McRae rushed for 200 yds and a 58 yd IR TD keyed Ohio?s 38-27 upset of Bowling Green. BG was down 2 and driving when the int happened. BG had a 27-20 FD edge....

Two weeks ago we pointed out how NC State would use the bye week to turn their season around and they may have done that. Daniel Evans threw for 347 yds vs a solid UVA D and upset the #21 ranked team 29-24....

Tulane RB Matt Fort? had his 4th straight 200+ rushing game carrying a school record 44 times for 278 yards. He broke the school record for rushing beating the mark of Minnesota Vikings RB Mewelde Moore and still has 4 games to go. Only 3 RB?s in NCAA history have had 5 consecutive 200 yard rushing games and those are some pretty nice names in Marcus Allen (USC), Barry Sanders (Okla St) and Jamario Thomas (N Texas). Memphis got a TD with :36 left to pull out a 28-27 win....

Not too many teams can overcome 6 TO?s and W Michigan couldn?t do it vs E Michigan. They fumbled twice inside the EM 20, once on the goal line and with 6 TO?s, lost 19-2....

If you live on the East Coast you have a different impression of Arizona St than do most of the other folks in the nation. Usually when people on the East Coast are heading to bed, Arizona St always trails and they trailed Cal 20-14 at the half thanks in part to a 13 yd FR for a TD. When folks wake up and read the next morning?s paper, they wonder how they not only won but covered their game and that was the case again this week as they rolled to a 31-20 win over Cal. Arizona St did have a 25-18 FD edge....

New Mexico K John Sullivan set a school record connecting on his 18th consecutive FG which was his 4th of the game vs Air Force and proved to be the game winner, 34-31. Ironically, NM got the ball back but Sullivan missed a 32 yd?r with 2:18 left ending the streak but the Lobos benefited from 5 AF fumbles on Thurs night....

Nothing fluky about Colorado?s upset of Texas Tech as they had leads of 14-0, 24-6 and 31-19 before Tech got an 80/17pl drive for a TD with just 2:08 left but CU rec?d the onside kick and had 217 yds rushing.

#2 TEAM IN THE COUNTRY BITES THE DUST AGAIN - Oops. Watching the Boston Coll/Virg Tech game, it was over. At the half, VT had a 147-59 yd edge and led 7-0 and extended it to 10-0 with just 6:01 left in the game. VT got an int at the BC 31 yd line and BC?s offense had done nothing all game with just 166 yards. VT lined up for a 46 yd FG but punted pinning BC at the 8. The announcers even mentioned that the #2 team in the country had basically lost their 4th straight. It was another miracle for BC. They went 92/9pl and on 3rd & 10 Matt Ryan got a 16 yd TD pass with 2:11 left, rec?d the onside kick then on 3rd & 20 when a 41 yd FG in poor conditions would have been highly improbable, Ryan scrambled around and hit a 24 yd TD pass with :11 left. BC got a miracle win in a game anyone watching would have conceded it was VT?s victory until the final :11. A key play that did not have an impact on scoring but did on field position came after VT?s 3Q FG. BC was pinned on 4th & 31 and punting from their own EZ when a VT defender with hands in the air had stopped running, but touched the BC P who did a complete flop. The ref amazingly bought the flop and called it not running into the K but roughing the K giving BC a FD which after their punt 5 plays later, would set VT up at their own 33 as opposed to in BC terr....

Missouri looked like it would dominate Iowa St taking their first 2 drives for TD?s but an IR TD made things close. MO came in avg 518 ypg and was held to a season low 366 yds. ISU, thanks to taking over with 3:39 left and driving 63/16pl on their last drive, finished with a yardage edge (389-366). ISU QB Bret Meyer became the 2nd Big XII QB ever to top 9,000 career yards passing and WR Todd Blythe became ISU?s career record holder for rec?s....

Oregon deserved their win over USC last week. In the 1H the Ducks had a 224-112 yd edge. USC had a 30 yd FG after the Ducks fmbl?d the punt and the Ducks were SOD at the USC 13 and settled for a 41 yd FG and only led 10-3. They led 24-10 when USC got a TD with 4:44 left and UO dropped an open 3rd & 5 pass and punted with 3:10 left. USC got to the UO 32 but was int?d at the 22 with :11 left....

Illinois secured bowl eligibility for the first time since 2001 with a 28-17 win over Ball St. Leading 28-17 Illinois took over with 8:41 left and went 87/14pl ending the game at the Ball St 3.

COACHES ON THE HOTSEAT - Kansas had built some impressive stats vs a ridiculously weak schedule but in their toughest test in the year, went into Texas A&M and held the #5 rushing offense in the country to just 56 yds rushing through 3Q?s. A&M did have a shot at the end trailing 19-11 getting to midfield but a pair of Hail Marys fell incomplete. With Coach Franchione under pressure heading into the season and then his newsletter snafu at mid season, looking at A&M?s remainder of the schedule (Oklahoma and Missouri on the road and Texas at home) the Aggie AD Bill Byrne is probably already scheduling interviews this week....

Phil Bennett did not have a great tenure at SMU but did a solid job building the team and led them to 6-6 last year and promised a breakthrough and a bowl this season. SMU led Tulsa 23-21in the final minutes and had a 1st & goal at the 5. On 3rd & goal from the 1 they were stuffed. On 4th & goal at the 1 instead of a FG which would have put them up by 5 he opted to go for it. You cannot fault him for that as if you can?t make a yard, you don?t deserve to win it, right? Well, they were stopped with 1:58 left. Tulsa converted on 3rd & 10 and got to midfield with :59 left. They still needed 2 FD?s to get the game winning FG but Paul Smith hit a 51 yd TD pass with :43 left and Tulsa, which had trailed most of the game, pulled out the win. SMU?s AD said he would not announce plans for Bennett until they were eliminated from the bowls and after that tough loss they have been eliminated. And as we expected and wrote last week he was fired, but will finish out the season.

It?s official Colorado St has been eliminated from bowl contention with their 7th loss of the year. Utah had a 452-271 yd edge in what may be Sonny Lubick?s last season as the HC at CSU....

Bill Callahan deserved better vs Texas as the Longhorns led 17-3 in the 3Q but Jamaal Charles rushed for 216 yards in the 4Q and finished with 290 and Texas rallied for a 28-25 win. Callahan is clearly a coach on the hotseat even though he signed a brand-new contract after the first game of the season and is locked in for the next four years.

GREAT SITUATIONS = UPSETS - Kentucky was coming off 3 straight monumental games including an upset of #1 LSU and a close loss to Top 10 Florida. They had nothing left in the tank for Miss St and there was nothing fluky about the Bulldogs? 31-14 win. While UK turned it over 6 times in the 2H, MSU took their opening 2 drives 80/14pl and 80/17pl for TD?s to lead 14-7 and had a 209-157 yd edge at the half. UK trailed 31-14 when Woodson had 2 int?s on their final 3 drives....

Wash St was at home, off a bye, and waiting for a UCLA team that got a big upset over Cal the previous week. WSU, which plays much better at home than they do on the road, dominated UCLA with 31-14 FD and 545-267 yd edges in their 27-7.

KEY PLAYS - A key play happened in the Indiana/Wisconsin game. Trailing 17-3 Indy late 3Q got an 84 yd TD run but a holding penalty on WR Hardy and a celebration penalty on Thigpen after the score, forced a 4th & 17 and Indy punted. Instead of being down 17-10, they allowed UW to go 78/8pl for a TD on the last play of the 3Q to lead 24-3 and they tacked on a garbage TD with 1:53 left after Indy was SOD....

L?ville was in control of Pitt leading 14-0 when a pass was bobbled by the receiver and int?d with 2:38 left in the half. Pitt ran a trick play and got a TD on the next play and despite being outgained 175-53 only trailed 14-7 at the half. L?ville, was up 17-7 had a 47 yd FG blk?d with 13:35 left and Pitt put together a drive getting a 35 yd FG with 13:35 left. L?ville led 24-17 and Pitt had gotten an apparent TD with 1:02 left but was ruled down on the 1 and on the next play fmbl?d so UL escaped with the win.

TALK ABOUT EMOTIONS - Florida usually had the benefit of a bye week prior to playing Georgia while Georgia was usually playing the week before and UF won 15 of the last 17 but this time however UGA had the bye. Mark Richt instructed his team that if they did NOT get a celebration penalty after their first TD, he would be angry with them. UGA scored first and the entire team went on the field to celebrate. Amazingly twice in the game, refs threw double pers foul pen?s vs UGA costing them 30 yds. UGA RB Moreno rushed for 188 yds and 3 TD?s and the Bulldogs led throughout in their 42-30 win.

MISLEADING FINALS - On paper Arkansas dominated Florida Int?l and was in control for most of the game in their 58-10. win FIU not only turned it over 7 times, they also dropped a punt snap for a 17 yd loss back to their own 6 which set up a Hog TD. In fact at the end of the 1H Ark led 31-10 but only had a 220-201 yd edge. At the end of the game, FIU was at the Hog 14 yd line but was SOD with just 1:03 left and on the next play, RB Smith ripped off an 81 yd run for a garbage TD with :47 left....

Nevada did have a 362-212 yd edge vs Idaho but in the 1Q scored a TD and a FG on drives of 33 & 16 yds and then got an 11 yd IR TD and led 17-0 after 1Q. UN did miss 26 & 54 yd FG?s in the 2Q and led 17-7 at the half. They took over with 4:16 left in the 3Q leading by 3 and went on an amazing 87/18pl drive that ate up 12:23 scoring a TD with 6:53 left. After a punt they went 85/6pl and got a TD with 4:22 left, 31-14 but Idaho went 65/7pl scoring a TD with 2:10, 31-21. UN rec?d the onside kick and backers were thrilled when a 4th & goal run went 11 yds for a TD with :27 left but UN missed the xp....

Kansas St only led Baylor 16-6 at the half with a slim 180-143 yd edge (not what you would expect from a team that won by 38). After BU got a 37 yd TD pass following a fumble to pull within 37-13 with 12:28 left, K-St went 88/10pl for a TD to get ahead of the spread, 44-13 (9:08). Baylor fumbled at the K-St 30 (7:10). K-St was SOD at the BU 36 with 2:08. BU punted with just :31 left and Jordy Nelson ret?d it 92 yds for a TD, 51-13....

Florida St had a dominating 534-222 yd edge vs Duke and Drew Weatherford ret?d to the starting lineup hitting 35-47 for 339 yds....

It appears Wake Forest had a blowout win over N Carolina and they did win 37-10 but NC had a 313-269 yd edge. WF got an int on the game?s first play ret?d to the NC 30 setting up a FG and an 83 yd KR set up a 1 play, 14 yd TD and then a 77 yd IR TD (14 point swing) made it 37-10 in the 3Q....

Purdue trailed 17-14 late 3Q but rallied for 2 TD?s to lead 28-17. Northwestern punted on 4th & 20 from its own 27 with 2:44 left, basically conceding the game and PU got 1 FD and then a 50 yd run to the 7 with 2:13 left. On 3rd & goal from the 1 with just :14 left instead of taking a knee, the Boilers got the TD. Northwestern had a 16-6 FD edge at the half but PU had a 13-4 FD edge in the 2H.

INJURIES OF NOTE - Michigan decided to rest both Chad Henne and Mike Hart as they were only playing Minnesota. Despite a 226-124 yd edge at the half, the Wolves needed a TD with 2:49 left to lead just 13-10 thanks to Minny getting a 46 yd FR for a TD. The chances of Michigan covering looked bleak until they got a TD late 3Q. In the 4Q they scored a TD on their next drive and got an 85 yd TD run by Brown with 8:37 left to get ahead of the spread, 34-10....

Oregon St lost their star RB Bernard who had rushed for 62 yds before leaving in the 1H with a shoulder inj. Backup Matthew Sieverson rushed for 68 yds on 16 carries. Stanford was playing without their top 2 RB?s, Anthony Kimble and Jason Evans and vs the Beavers tough run D allowed -8 yards rushing in OSU?s 23-6 home win....

Middle Tenn?s Dwight Dasher was injured early in the 3Q (ankle) and is undergoing an MRI. Joe Craddock replaced him and hit just 6-17 for 44 yds. MT pinned N Texas twice at the 1 yd line and then recorded safeties in the 4Q to extend a 33-28 lead to 37-28. MT then got a TD with 6:43 left to get the frontdoor cover, 48-28 despite being outgained 383-335 by NT....

Both Boise St and Fresno St were missing their starting RB?s in the Fri night game where Fresno had the situational edge catching Boise travelling for a 2nd consecutive week and playing on a short week. Boise?s replacements, DJ Harper (19-153) and Jeremy Avery (18-124) each topped 100 yards while Fresno?s replacement, Ryan Mathews had just 49 yards on 15 carries. It looked like it would be a high scoring shootout as it was tied at 14 with 4:31 left in the 1Q but a blk?d FG by Boise which turned into a Boise 34 yd FG was the only scoring the rest of the 1H (17-14). In the 2H Fresno missed a 39 yd FG and was int?d in the EZ with 1:12 left and Boise walked away with a 34-21 win where they had a 440-352 yd edge....

Rutgers QB Mike Teel was playing with a bruised throwing hand and in heavy rain but was also done in by 6 dropped passes vs W Virginia. The Mountaineers led 17-3 at the half as RU had a pair of long drives end in short FG?s and the Mountaineers coasted to a 31-3 win.


:SIB
 

ctownguy

Life is Good
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Jul 27, 2000
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toaist, I have been getting his newsletter for years. It is a real good source of info every week.

This year even his key plays in the newsletter are doing real well, but from what I've seen his high priced and overpriced late phones and his ridiculous so called executive club which according to his prices costs $3500 per year is getting killed. His executive club went 0-11 about 3 or 4 week ends ago, yes 0-11.

Love his newsletter, it's great you take the time to post it for everyone, but can you imagine paying that kind of money for all those losers.

Here's a question, he puts out this great newsletter, giving stats info all kinds of good handicapping info etc, that I have been using for years, how come he doesn't use it himself to give out winners:shrug: :142smilie :mj07:
 

ctownguy

Life is Good
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Jul 27, 2000
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I don't pay for anything. :nono:


...but he does keep excellent notes and they are free at his website. I just copy and paste them here for everyone's reading pleasure. LOL :SIB

I didn't say you did, just saying I get his newsletter:shrug:

Man everyone here is so touchy about anything I post. I know when to shut up.
 

taoist

The Sage
Forum Member
I didn't say you did, just saying I get his newsletter:shrug:

Man everyone here is so touchy about anything I post. I know when to shut up.


I didn't take you the wrong way. I have tough skin. I wasn't upset in the least. I get his newsletter every now and again too when he sends me out a freebie. Didn't mean for you to take it the wrong way, but no worries herre, my friend. :)
 
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