The line: Falcons minus-3 The Eagles are the first top-seeded team to ever enter the playoffs as an underdog. It was bound to happen sooner or later; it?s just a surprise that it was ultimately a team as strong as Philadelphia taking points. The Eagles ended the regular season tied with the Patriots for the best point differential in the league at plus-162. They had wedged their way into second-choice in the future market behind the Patriots before MVP candidate quarterback Carson Wentz tore his ACL in Week 14. Nick Foles taking over for Wentz is the entire reason for the creation of this historic point spread.
The matchup: At full strength, the Eagles would be roughly a 6-point favorite over the Falcons. A 9-point swing means the betting market rates Wentz on par with the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as the most impactful player in the league. And consequently it means Foles grades out as a mediocre-at-best backup. Foles? statistics dispute that account, however, as most of his career numbers hover around NFL averages. Over a somewhat substantial sample of 49 games, he?s thrown for 61 touchdowns to 29 interceptions with a 7 yards per attempt average. He?s 18-17-1 against the spread lifetime in games where he?s taken the majority of the snaps.
Three of the losses have come in the last three games, though. There?s no defending impotent performances where Foles couldn?t even crack 5 yards per attempt against the Cowboys and Raiders to close the season. But one of the golden rules of sports betting is to not jump to conclusions too quickly, and the Falcons appear to offer another opportunity for Foles to get on track. They?re not great against the pass, ranking 19th in the league by Football Outsiders? DVOA. Their 26-13 upset of the Rams to reach the divisional round also looks less impressive in hindsight. Los Angeles outgained Atlanta by nearly 1.5 yards per play, but was largely undone by losing both of its fumbles. Philadelphia?s defense is even better than Los Angeles? as one of eight units in the league giving up 5 yards per play or less. With a number of defensive starters having rested since Week 17, Philadelphia has enjoyed nearly a month to rest up for this game as compared with Atlanta facing a gauntlet of must-win games.
--Case, LV Sun
The matchup: At full strength, the Eagles would be roughly a 6-point favorite over the Falcons. A 9-point swing means the betting market rates Wentz on par with the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as the most impactful player in the league. And consequently it means Foles grades out as a mediocre-at-best backup. Foles? statistics dispute that account, however, as most of his career numbers hover around NFL averages. Over a somewhat substantial sample of 49 games, he?s thrown for 61 touchdowns to 29 interceptions with a 7 yards per attempt average. He?s 18-17-1 against the spread lifetime in games where he?s taken the majority of the snaps.
Three of the losses have come in the last three games, though. There?s no defending impotent performances where Foles couldn?t even crack 5 yards per attempt against the Cowboys and Raiders to close the season. But one of the golden rules of sports betting is to not jump to conclusions too quickly, and the Falcons appear to offer another opportunity for Foles to get on track. They?re not great against the pass, ranking 19th in the league by Football Outsiders? DVOA. Their 26-13 upset of the Rams to reach the divisional round also looks less impressive in hindsight. Los Angeles outgained Atlanta by nearly 1.5 yards per play, but was largely undone by losing both of its fumbles. Philadelphia?s defense is even better than Los Angeles? as one of eight units in the league giving up 5 yards per play or less. With a number of defensive starters having rested since Week 17, Philadelphia has enjoyed nearly a month to rest up for this game as compared with Atlanta facing a gauntlet of must-win games.
--Case, LV Sun
