Last nights game (OSU-Miami) taught me a valuable lesson in handicapping. You can have all the football knowledge you want, but I think a gambling mind is more important....
Me and a buddy yesterday sat as lunch and played out in our minds exactly what we thought would happen in that game. We had it completely pegged!!! So we came to the comclusion of Ohio State and the under. We thought the score would be about 20-17, or 24-20. We came to the conclusion that if you like the Buckeyes, you have to attach the under to it, cuz we all know that OSU isnt gonna put up a ton of points. Well...bad thing is...dont cha think Vegas knows this too??? The whole pass interference call, really didnt make any sense to me especially since it was a late flag. So what better for Vegas, than an OSU and the over parlay (The least played parlay of the 4 choices)
I truly believe that there is either a fix, or just truly odd coincidence that happens in these games. Now, I really cant believe that I am saying this, because I am an athlete, and cant imagine a point spread playing into how I perform.
But there is no other explanation. How many times do we see a superior team playing a bad team with a low spread? How many times does that bad team find a way to win outright? I'd say about 7 or 8 out of 10 times. Now I know my sports, as do many others in this forum. How can we continually be fooled? Well, how does Vegas know this game is going to end this way? They dont, unless they have a hand in it.
I guess the moral of my story is that I am no longer going to let my sports mind make my bets for me. These games are far too unpredictable. I am going to see which side will be more profitable for Vegas and try to bet with them. I am not a believer that they want 50-50 action on all games. With all this being said, here are my picks for the day....
Colts +6.5 under 41
Jets are what people are thinking about here. They are playing great. I think Penny should have been an MVP candidate. Everything I hear is Jets Jets Jets. Well they are playing a team that has a better record and has the more experienced coach. The line is inflated for a reason. People are betting Jets...well Im not. I think this is a tight game....that with two coaches from the same mold will pretty boring.....Look for a 21-17 game either way
Falcons +7 over 40
Both teams limped down the stretch. Both teams do not defend the run well. The Falcons have a multi dimensional offense. Vick can make a linebackers nightmares come true, and Green Bay has trouble in this area. Hence, why ATL was able to put up 34 last meeting. I dont see this game being much different, but ATL is much better at defending the big play and they donw turn it over much. Enough football talk....Green Bay at home under a touchdown????C'mon the public loves that!!! Gimme the Falcons.
Me and a buddy yesterday sat as lunch and played out in our minds exactly what we thought would happen in that game. We had it completely pegged!!! So we came to the comclusion of Ohio State and the under. We thought the score would be about 20-17, or 24-20. We came to the conclusion that if you like the Buckeyes, you have to attach the under to it, cuz we all know that OSU isnt gonna put up a ton of points. Well...bad thing is...dont cha think Vegas knows this too??? The whole pass interference call, really didnt make any sense to me especially since it was a late flag. So what better for Vegas, than an OSU and the over parlay (The least played parlay of the 4 choices)
I truly believe that there is either a fix, or just truly odd coincidence that happens in these games. Now, I really cant believe that I am saying this, because I am an athlete, and cant imagine a point spread playing into how I perform.
But there is no other explanation. How many times do we see a superior team playing a bad team with a low spread? How many times does that bad team find a way to win outright? I'd say about 7 or 8 out of 10 times. Now I know my sports, as do many others in this forum. How can we continually be fooled? Well, how does Vegas know this game is going to end this way? They dont, unless they have a hand in it.
I guess the moral of my story is that I am no longer going to let my sports mind make my bets for me. These games are far too unpredictable. I am going to see which side will be more profitable for Vegas and try to bet with them. I am not a believer that they want 50-50 action on all games. With all this being said, here are my picks for the day....
Colts +6.5 under 41
Jets are what people are thinking about here. They are playing great. I think Penny should have been an MVP candidate. Everything I hear is Jets Jets Jets. Well they are playing a team that has a better record and has the more experienced coach. The line is inflated for a reason. People are betting Jets...well Im not. I think this is a tight game....that with two coaches from the same mold will pretty boring.....Look for a 21-17 game either way
Falcons +7 over 40
Both teams limped down the stretch. Both teams do not defend the run well. The Falcons have a multi dimensional offense. Vick can make a linebackers nightmares come true, and Green Bay has trouble in this area. Hence, why ATL was able to put up 34 last meeting. I dont see this game being much different, but ATL is much better at defending the big play and they donw turn it over much. Enough football talk....Green Bay at home under a touchdown????C'mon the public loves that!!! Gimme the Falcons.
