SI should be or be right on the early pace. hard to figure he wont be up there.
I am tossing Chrome out of all exotics I play, at least for the top part. I had a small .50 tri in the Derby by using him solely on top with 5 or 6 others I liked as a back up. would have hit a huge one if Commanding Curve couldve came on first.
anyway, Chrome got a perfect trip in the Derby. could not have asked for a better trip for this horse. a lot of his foes also had some pretty rough trips. sitting at 3/5 morning line and likely to go off at 1/2 if not 2/5, i am looking to take a stand against him. if he wins, great, because I'll up that stand in the Belmont. and if he wins the triple crown, well then good for him, but I think this horse is vulnerable when he doesnt get his ideal trip.
as shown in his losses, he is not a fan of dirt kicked in his face. drawing an inside post in the Preakness really gives him no choice but to hustle out of the gate big time. the horses inside him like to show decent speed, but the horses to his outside I would think are going to try and pin him down on the rail. the filly has no real shot in this race but I think she will flash some early speed. Social Inclusion and Pablo Del Monte are really going to step on it early I would think. Bayern has early speed too but with the blinkers coming off I think he will try and rate in a stalking position and not wire the field. On the inside of Chrome is 2 more horses who dont like to come from far out of it. Playing Chrome at such a short price is crazy to me because his race could be over a few seconds out of the gate. being shuffled back is not his game and he isnt a horse with push button acceleration who can make up those lost lengths at the beginning of a race.
for me, I have to include Kid Cruz on top. in a race full of speed, he has been a consistent closer with a win over this track last month. his best is certainly good enough to compete here, it is just a matter of will he be at his best or will he regress after his last effort which was the best of his career. Linda Rice has had her horses running some big efforts the past few months and I am really hoping this guy can at least pair his best effort because that gives him a huge chance to win with the pace scenario he is likely to see.
Bayern is a big wild card. an improvement on his best effort which is entirely possible makes him fast enough and a big contender. Baffert has had good success with the Preakness and the blinkers off could help.
Ring Weekend is another that needs a step forward but has certainly been a new horse since he came back as a gelding.
Ria Antonia is a toss for me as I think she fully does not belong here. Even with a forward move off 2 weeks rest, she would still need quite a move up to be competitive against these even with the weight shes allowed.
Not sure what I think about Ride On Curlin but my first thought is that this trainer wants to milk the triple crown for all its worth because he isnt a guy who is usually in these types of races and it may be a while till he gets another horse that is capable of running here. will be his 6th start this year and hell need an improvement to win.
General A Rod was one of my top Derby picks and he didnt have his best effort. some traffic trouble didnt help, but in a smaller field and supposedly coming out of the Derby barely winded, I think he is a big time threat here.
Really love the trainer of the #1, Dynamic Impact. Casse is the top trainer in Canada and starting to make a big name for himself in the States. Like General A Rod, Dynamic Impact is a gritty horse who fights it out in the stretch. Certainly a consideration for the exotics.
Havent formulated any plays yet but I will be going for the exotics and hoping that Chrome has a less than ideal trip. If the trip is bothersome enough, I can see him not hitting the board at all.
