Very easy analysis on this one. Pistons have to win at least 1 game in SA. Lets give Detroit game 5 for arguments sake.
On road in games 3 and 4 Spurs shot poorly (especially 2 stars), committed many turnovers, refs not calling different style game (not necessarily horrible game), and Pistons played great.
Pistons have not won in SA since 1997 and the East this year didn't win 1 game @SA. Spurs are the best home team in the NBA and have ton playoff experience.
Spurs will not commit turnovers at home at the same pace. Pistons are excellent team in converting TO's into easy pts. Problem is if their opponent doesn't turn ball over, the Pistons offense goes in multiple scoring droughts. Not good playing @SA!
Spurs likely will get great games from there 2 star players @home. More importantly, Spurs role players will play better and Pistons roll players won't. Everyone knows this. A good example is A. McDyesss.
Lastly, we talk about refs. Refs in SA will not let Ben Wallace hack Duncans arm and refs in SA will not watch Spurs players fall to floor driving to basket without calling "more" fouls. Pistons will continue to wine because they will not be allowed to play street ball defense.
Lets not forget Spurs goal was to win 1 game in Detroit. That is what Ginobili said. Maybe they were saving there best game for game 5 because we clearly saw below average play from them in games 3 and 4. But my instinct tells me Pistons win game 5 and Pistons had lot to do with Spurs struggling for games 3/4. Now lets look at Pistons in these playoffs. They played GREAT with backs against wall. They couldn't lose games 3 and 4 to Spurs and they played great. I think there is decent chance (based on Pistons playoffs this year) that they have an off game. I certainly have not seen Pistons play well 3 games in a row and Pistons cannot beat Spurs without playing well. They are not good enough. Spurs can hang with Pistons not playing well but Pistons need to play well to win.
IMO Spurs have much higher prob. winning game 5 @Detroit vs Pistons winning game 6 on road @SA. Game 7 at home the home team wins almost all the time. Forgot the stat.
I wonder what results we would have seen if we had the old format. 2-2-1-1-1. Spurs know they have games 6 and 7 @SA (which is huge advantage) so that "may" have something to do with them not looking great in games 3/4. They might have eased up a tad or waited to put best effort for game 5. Who knows and this may not apply.
