Play for 12.5.02

[CrazyHorse]

ytd 48-43-5 -20

Louisiana Tech +1.5 vs Fresno St (220/200 sia)

Overall LA Tech gives up 14 more yds on defense but are averaging 68 more yds than Fresno on offense. But this is mostly a play based on the home/road splits for these teams. Fresno is 2-4 su on the road and 1-5 ats. Both teams came into the yr with hopes of winning the WAC and while neither did Fresno is going to a bowl while this is as close to a bowl game for LA Tech as they will have this yr, especially with ESPN visiting for the 1st time in a long time. Also like the fact that LA Tech gives up almost one less yard per carry than does Fresno. Can't see Fresno being as up for this game as La Tech. Fresno is used to being on televised games while LA Tech is not. Plus with many seniors playing their last game for LA Tech and Fresno still having a bowl game I expect LA Tech to be the more focused team. Home team, better QB, and superior rush defense make LA Tech the play for me. GL to all tonite!

 

[taoist]

...why bother with the 1.5? do you think that the hook is going to come into play? i took 'em on the ML (+105) because i came up with an outright home win by La Tech. i figured i might as well make the book pay me a little juice tonight. LOL

GL to us.

 

[CrazyHorse]

I thought about that, believe me. But after a horrible betting record these last 4 weeks I just figured this was the way to go based on the way I have been losing some close ones. Plus it is +1 at most books so getting the 1.5 just in case Fresno wins by 1 is a safer play for me. If this was one month ago I would play the ML and not have a second thought about it. But with my tough beats of late on my mind, going with the safe play even though I expect a LA Tech win. GL to us tonite!

 

[Chenker]

good luck tonight

I am leaning towards UCLA, COLO, and ARK this weekend-

any thoughts??

 

[THE KOD]

good luck tonight

I am leaning towards ARK this weekend-

any thoughts??

my thoughts are that Arkansas Razorbacks are going

to HOG the spotlight !


Scott the gifted

 

[CrazyHorse]

Good to hear from you John. I really like those 3 leans and may be on a few of them myself. Arkansas is probably my favorite of the 3. I know GA is the better overall team and I know it's really a matter of opinion who has the most pressure on them and I believe it is GA. I just look at it as they know they have to win this game. They had nat'l championship aspirations during the yr and now know they had better at least win the SEC. Arkansas I think will play a loose game knowing they don't have to win this game but just really want to. GA knows after wanting to play in the big game that now if they lose this game they will not get a great bowl game and the season will pretty much be a disapointment. Maybe that is all incorrect but last yr towards the end a few teams just had to win one game to go to the nat'l championship game or be a front runner and most (Okla lost to Okla ST, fla lost to Tenn, Tenn lost to Lsu, Colorado beat Texas etc) lost outright and/or ATS. This to me looks like a similar spot for GA and even if they win I think it will be under 10 and see value with Arkansas, despite GA being better and not one-dimensional.