Played this for the home run derby

J

Junior44

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cuz im a degen like everybody else in this forum 🤣

Matt Olsen +700
-I like the fact that he is hitting at his home field plus he has a nice even stroke. Really like the high odds on him.

James Woods +400
-This guy is going to be a superstar, he has mucho power and is young (with the stamina to last till the later rounds.)

*made just small bets on these 2 because I'm going to be watching, with the bigger bet on Olsen.

G/l madjackers if you decide to play. :smilies8
 
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Can’t argue with that (Woods) or Olsen (on the top 35-40 all time for fewest PA/HR .

But at the same time, not betting on cal Raleigh who is hitting a hr every 9 ab this yr is tough. Plus no one likes him as the fav. Plenty of jokers yakking about buxton and jazz ch’zm but the dude with 38 hr and a gb/fb rate of like 0.3 hitting in right field friendly truist park is very hard to ignore

Im gonna take some shots at finals matchups and maybe longest hr for Wood.

If baseball were as staged as the SAG (or nba) matt olsen is the best value for the spot. Braves are crumbling ( from an already declining spot) and it the only positive footnote for 2025 would be a brave winning the derby for the home town fans

Gl
 
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R

Real_Vision

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Junior44 said:
I didn't know this.........makes me like this bet even more!!
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He didn't do well but the whole acuna very publicized announcement then switcharoo for olsen that is still surprising everyone but baseball addicts today is weird.

Adds to the narrative if olsen wins. The oldest guy, beating the young bucks, 23rd hour replacement, not the fav but way more likely to win (anyone else in the field have a 54 hr season? Or a 40? It’ll be like it was right under our noses and obvious . But cal raleigh is hard to ignore
 
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Junior44 said:
RV - well none of the favorites have any value (+220 for Raleigh?) and I don't like any of the big long shots. Gonna look into some matchups in a bit.
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Oh the books squeeze events like this. Oneil cruz and cal were co-favs first time i looked on fri or sat at +375. Woods was +550, olsen +700, impossibly everyones odds to win improved since then. But for value james wood is the same price CR opened at now, buxton has flown up from like +1200 to 4th best. The books and the action have distorted price at this point. Even the long shots dont pay enough.

So relatively speaking if buxton is +585 on DK right now, Jw +390, cal at +225 is actually cheap. For the record, Im not taking cal either. Gonna bet matchups or guys to make the final. Rooker is a real hitter, jc on the rays, and fwiw olsen and CR in the final at 14:1 isnt bad.

The straight up winner angle is impossible to me because its a matter of inches or seconds that might separate 5th from 4th after RD 1, and same goes for the seeding 1-4. Not knowing if olsen faces raleigh or some hotshot that hits 29 in RD 1 or hell who will even be alive for rd 2 makes ALL the winner odds unfairly expensive, thats the reality
 
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Junior44 said:
Plus, who the hell was Raleigh before this season?? I agree that he doesnt have the stamina to last to the later rounds. Totally agree.
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raleigh 19.2 PA / HR in minors (3rd best in the field behind Rooker at 16.1, and JC around 18.

In mlb career? His 16.6 PA / HR are best of the pack. Followed by olsen 18.1 and a close 3rd that statistically pesky rooker at 18.54

Not saying this season isnt shocking, but in a contest where u have limited time , therefore ABs , to hit as many homers as u can, its not like CR is a fluke 12 week joker vs mathematically superior incumbents
 
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